11.55am No weather problems
Chris Cook: Catterick and Leicester have both been cleared to race today after overnight temperatures remained higher than expected. Meanwhile, the day's main meeting is over in Ireland at Leopardstown, where some big names clash in the Lexus Chase at 2.35. There's also a classy novice chase (won last year by Notre Pere, yesterday's Welsh National winner) and a Grade Two three-mile hurdle. I'll be offering some tips shortly, for what it's worth — meanwhile, Greg Wood is at the track and will be on here with live updates through the afternoon.
Leopardstown's Christmas meeting continues tomorrow with a top-class hurdle featuring Ireland's best two-milers, including Sublimity, Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace. But the bad news this morning is that Sizing Europe may not take part after a minor setback. "He pulled out slightly sore this morning, I'm afraid," said his trainer, Henry de Bromhead. "We're treating it and hopefully he'll be okay for tomorrow, but we're not sure at the moment and we're going to see how he is in the morning. He had a canter up the hill and he is fine on the grass, but he's not 100% when he's on a firmer surface."
12.20pm Greg Wood live from Leopardstown
Good afternoon from Leopardstown's Christmas meeting on a sparkling December day, where one of the most sporting and knowledgeable crowds anywhere on the racing circuit is assembling for the Lexus Chase card. People don't come to this meeting to be seen, or to be corporately entertained. They come to watch, and bet on, good horses, and it always feels like a privilege to join them.
Nor does it matter where they hail from. Neptune Collonges will get as big a cheer as any Irish-trained runner if he can justify favouritism in the Lexus, though War Of Attrition will also have plenty of support as he continues his comeback from a long layoff. This looks like another for Paul Nicholls, though I did wonder if Cane Brake might sneak a place (at around 8-1 on Betfair) now that the cheekpieces are back on.
Elsewhere on the card, Catch Me looks woefully underpriced in the three-mile hurdle, given that he's a horse who travelled like a dream to two out on his last try at the trip, and then fell in a heap. He's definitely a lay for me at 1.74 [8-11] for the 2.00.
There are some interesting developments in the bumper, meanwhile, where Willie Mullins has taken out his two runners, and his son Patrick now rides Deise Dan (3.40) for Willie's brother, Tom. You don't need to be too much of a conspiracy theorist to put two and two together there.
12.40pm Today's best bet
Chris Cook: Palomar is favourite for a competitive novice chase at Catterick and he's easy to like. He dotted up in a handicap hurdle at Kempton's Christmas meeting last year and, although he couldn't cope in the better handicaps off his revised mark, he showed a lot of ability when winning his chase debut at Kelso in November.
On the other hand, he may have been flattered by that. The runner-up, Naiad Du Misselot, flopped badly at Ascot last time and looks anything but a natural fencer. Meanwhile, Palomar's trainer, Nicky Richards, is right out of form, with one winner from 25 runners this month.
I'm going to take him on, and I'm not tempted by the second-favourite, Arcalis, either. Once a Supreme Novice Hurdle winner, Arcalis has had his problems since then and showed nothing on his first start for 20 months at Wetherby recently. This is his chasing debut and, although his stable is in excellent form, it baffles me that anyone would want to back him at 11-4.
The one for me is Kings Quay (2.25) at around 6-1. He achieved a higher rating over hurdles than Palomar and won a Grade Two round Wincanton. His jumping looked decidedly shaky on his chasing debut at Fakenham early this month but he improved as the race went on and beat a poor field handsomely. He was still classy enough to win over 10 furlongs on the Flat this summer and should not be such a big price here.
12.55pm Greg Wood at Leopardstown
Maiden hurdles at this meeting are rarely without interest, and Willie Mullins left no-one in any doubt about his regard for Kempes, who charged past Puyol on the run-in despite losing plenty of momentum at the last two flights.
Mullins has an outstanding team of novice hurdlers this year and Kempes is clearly towards the top of the pile.
"He's a nice recruit to this game, and he's good enough to think about the Supreme Novice Hurdle, but the way he was staying on there, he might suit the Ballymore," Mullins said.
"Ruby was very happy with the way he stayed on after losing all his impetus, but we'll go for a novice somewhere on home turf first.
"He stopped to a standstill going to the last, he just put down completely, but he's been showing me that sort of form at home, he did a fantastic bit of work last Thursday and we were looking forward to coming here with him."
This was Mullins's fifth winner at the meeting, and his string is in form much earlier than is often the case for a trainer who targets the spring festivals above all. "Normally we wouldn't be in this sort of form until late January. We're not doing anything differently, maybe we're just getting better at the job, I don't know."
1.12pm Walsh wins again
Greg Wood: Ross Accord, who took the novice handicap hurdle off 10 stone, is unlikely to be troubling the judge at the Festival in March, but he did get an exceptional ride from Ruby Walsh, who somehow found running room up the far rail to nail the runner-up in the last 50 yards.
Walsh now has a double in the first two races at odds of 15-1, but may struggle to continue the streak on Drumconvis in the next. Trafford Lad is the favourite for this Grade One novice chase, and is nudging odds-on on Betfair.
1.15pm Wrong time to plunge on Neptune?
Chris Cook: Neptune Collonges is a worthy favourite for the Lexus Chase but this will be his first run since winning at Punchestown in April and, although Paul Nicholls says he is "as straight as I can get him", it's possible he'll need the run. He made a crucial late blunder, possibly through fatigue, on his first start last season, when third to Knowhere at Cheltenham in January. Two months later, Knowhere was a long way back when Neptune Collonges ran a fine third in the Gold Cup.
If Neptune Collonges is short of his best, the one to take advantage could well be the other grey, The Listener, whose last three wins have all been in Irish Grade Ones. He came home eight lengths clear of Beef Or Salmon in this race two years ago and is probably still capable of that level of form. Now rising ten, he ran Noland to half a length in the John Durkan this month and he'll appreciate today's extra half-mile.
He runs for rookie trainer Nick Mitchell, having left Robert and Sally Alner in the summer. Mitchell has yet to send out a winner but he only has a handful of horses and has made no obvious mistakes so far. The 5-1 on Betfair looks generous.
1.40pm Shock as 25-1 shot Casey Jones beats Trafford Lad
Casey Jones rallied strongly on the run-in to beat Trafford Lad in Leopardstown's Grade One novice chase. The 11-10 favourite had travelled smoothly throughout and went to the front at the final fence but had no answer when challenged by the outsider. You don't get many horses trained by Noel Meade and ridden by Paul Carberry winning at those odds.
Greg Wood: Noel Meade was flat out with a back problem on Boxing Day and must still be bed-bound, as he was not in the winner's enclosure to greet Casey Jones. There are thus no immediate quotes to offer regarding his schedule, but the bookies, inevitably, are happy to fill the gap, with quotes of 20-1 (from 33-1) for the RSA Chase with Hills about the winner, and 14-1 about Trafford Lad with Paddy Power for the same race.
Neither looks particularly appealing, given Meade's overall record at the Festival and the manner of Trafford Lad's defeat. He looked all over the winner from a long way out, but was treading water on the run-in as Paul Carberry drove Casey Jones past. Not an obvious candidate for the Cheltenham hill, then.
2.08pm Catch Me holds on, just
Another great finish in Ireland as the heavily-backed favourite Catch Me just holds on in the Christmas Hurdle. The race appeared to have been won when he went past Whatuthink at the last but the other horse rallied when switched to the outside and was only down by a diminishing head at the line.
2.24pm Catch Me keeps it
The stewards have just announced that the placings will remain unaltered, despite arguable interference by the winner to the second close home.
Greg Wood: The theory was fine regarding Catch Me at three miles, but the practice left something to be desired. His rivals did not serve it up to him as they needed to and, though he was getting very tired at the end, he had just enough left. A better pace would probably have got him beat.
The winner crossed the runner-up after the last, forcing him to switch, but survived a stewards' inquiry. Eddie O'Grady will not be running him over three again, with a two-and-a-half mile contest likely to be next up, and a watching brief on the Champion Hurdle field, with doubts emerging over Sizing Europe.
2.37pm The Listener falls!
. . . at the second fence. Neptune Collonges is left with an uncontested lead, which should please favourite-backers.
2.41pm Neptune Collonges falls!
. . . when leading at the second-last. Exotic Dancer (4-1) is left in front and stays on well to win, with War Of Attrition and Cane Brake the only others within hailing distance. Jonjo O'Neill would be a popular winning trainer of this race, one would imagine.
Looking at a replay of Neptune Collonges' fall, it looked like Ruby Walsh asked him to take off on a long stride and the horse decided to put in another short stride instead. Unsurprisingly, they didn't get anything like high enough. That kind of thing could easily mean Neptune Collonges was getting tired and may well have been reeled in by Exotic Dancer if he had stood up.
Meanwhile, those who took Greg's advice about a place bet on Cane Brake (33-1) have been handsomely rewarded.
Exotic Dancer's Gold Cup odds have been slashed to 16-1 from 33-1 with Stan James but it's hard to imagine that we learned much of significance there. Exotic Dancer has maintained a reasonable level of form over the last year or so, without being quite good enough at the highest level, so it's hardly surprising that he can win a race like this if his two main rivals fall over.
It looks as though we can probably count out War Of Attrition as a force in the best races after this second straight defeat. Mind you, he was hammered by Beef Or Salmon in this race three years ago and won the Gold Cup on his next outing.
Greg Wood: A hugely popular win for Exotic Dancer in the Lexus, as Jonjo O'Neill wins with his first runner in the race.
"He did everything right," O'Neill said afterwards, "he jumped well and travelled well, and he settled better. That's how he won his handicaps, out the back door.
"When Ruby fell at the second-last, I thought he might be in front too long, but in fairness to him, he kept going well. He was very comfortable all the way, everything went to plan when, a few times in the past, it hasn't."
Barry Simpson, Sir Robert Ogden's racing manager, hopes to send Exotic Dancer back for another crack at the Gold Cup, perhaps with a run in the Hennessy back at Leopardstown in February first.
"When you are running in Grade One races you need everything to slot into place for you, and when you're not getting that, it's tough on the horses and it's tough on the trainer and everybody connected with the horse," Simpson says.
"He's a horse who's had problems in his back. He gets a lot of checks throughout his training regime, we checked him out the other day and he was in very good shape and we came here very hopeful."
Both The Listener and Neptune Collonges appear uninjured after their falls.
3.20pm Tipping competition returns tomorrow
It may still be the holiday season but our weekly tipping competition will resume tomorrow after a break for Christmas. As before, we'll be asking for your tips in three of the day's trickiest races — whoever does best over the week is our champion tipster.
This week's prize is a copy of the newly published '1001 Great Gambling Tips' by Graham Sharpe. For details of how to get involved, check tomorrow's edition of Talking Horses from noon.
4pm Mullins clan land the bumper
Greg Wood pointed out the "interesting goings-on" in the Leopardstown bumper early today, and conspiracy theorists have been rewarded with a 5-4 winner. As Greg noted, Willie Mullins withdrew his two runners, allowing his son Patrick to switch to Deise Dan, trained by Willie's brother, Tom.
Deise Dan was all out but held on to win by a head just now. It's been a good day for Greg's followers.
That Kings Quay debacle
Kings Quay never got into the Catterick race today, being settled out the back under Tom O'Brien, who had never ridden him before. His jumping again lacked fluency and he was allowed to come home in his own time. The same could be said of Arcalis, who finished a well-beaten fifth.
Despite his stable's recent poor form, Palomar hacked up and is now being quoted for the Arkle Trophy. Winning rider Davy Condon suggested he might be more of an Aintree type.
