We think of training handicappers as a particular skill and we think we know which trainers are good at it, though the statistics don't always back up our perceptions. Of course, statistics are limited - a trainer's strike-rate in such contests might be undermined by having to persevere with older, exposed horses who struggle to find the winner's enclosure.
In theory, nurseries should be a better guide to a trainer's skill at handicapping, as each horse's career in such races is limited to about half a season. Any trainer able to get the best out of a young horse and keep it improving should enjoy regular success in such races that is reflected in the stats.
Over the last five years, Sir Mark Prescott has won 20 nurseries from 59 runners, an excellent strike-rate of 34% (compared to his overall 23%) for a level-stakes profit of 42% on all stakes. Of the other trainers with runners in Pontefract's opener, only Jamie Osborne wins such races at even half that rate, while Bryan Smart's 8% is surprisingly poor, given that his reputation rests on his ability with juveniles.
Karl Burke's Johnmanderville has only a 6lb penalty for winning the year's first nursery last week and is surely well treated but Prescott's Predict (2.30) may have more in hand. She hacked up in a Wolverhampton maiden last time, when the half-length winning margin was simply down to her idling close home.
If nurseries are not won by accident, neither are apprentice races. I suspect a lot of trainers use these events for their equine no-hopers, as a way to give unpressured practice to budding jockeys. Others, I'm sure, see them as winnable races featuring soft opposition and give as much thought to them as any other possible target.
According to my copy of Raceform Interactive, which has nine years' worth of form, John Quinn's strike-rate in apprentice races is 18% for a profit on turnover of 70%. His Holiday Cocktail (5.00) should have won over this course and distance in a lady amateurs' race last time and has one of the better apprentices, Jamie Kyne, to get him home in front today.
Pontefract is a good place for a strong finisher and John Keats (4.00) won a nursery here in 2005, one of only two visits he has made. Along with many of Jim Goldie's, he is in good heart just now and is a worthy favourite for the six-furlong handicap.
There was a time when the bias towards those drawn low was a great way into sprint handicaps at Wolverhampton but that seems to have died a death now and today's card there looks as tricky as ever. Still, I like the look of newcomer Learo Dochais (2.15) in the opener, in which those of his rivals with experience have already proved themselves pretty moderate.
Later, The City Kid (4.45) can turn over favourite Willie Ever, who is being supported on the basis of his recent victory over a furlong further. He had previously looked short of pace over this trip, whereas The City Kid's form over course and distance is 1212. I'm surprised she's as big as 7-1 on Betfair - as ever, one can only hope this is not the start of a major drift, signalling something amiss.
5.10pm Holiday Cocktail wins at 7-2
Another apprentice race win for John Quinn and Jamie Kyne proves I didn't overstate his ability as he steers home Holiday Cocktail, the subject of a late gamble.
It had been an unrewarding day up to that point. Learo Dochais showed promise to be second but didn't get much help from the saddle and the winner (under a nice ride from Travis Block) had flown by the time he saw daylight. Predict travelled well through the first half of her race but found nothing when asked - a most disappointing effort, considering she'd been sent off at 6-4. John Keats's strong finish came too late, while The City Kid ran poorly after an ominous drift all the way out to 11-1 on Betfair.
Tomorrow brings the start of Newmarket's July meeting and Tony Paley will be here with your daily dose of winners.
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