Talking Horses

This is a difficult time to be a fan of National Hunt racing, of that there is no doubt. Newbury lost yesterday, Leopardstown gone today, no real end in sight to the cold weather and Denman beaten over fences for the first time in his career at Kempton 24 hours ago all add up to a mixture of confusion and frustration for backers over the sticks.

The postponement of Leopardstown's big fixture, with three Grade One events, is a serious blow, with so many Irish trainers likely to have picked out the fixture as the ideal moment to put the finishing touches to their horses' Festival preparations. The centralised Irish system, though, does at least allow them to postpone the entire card until next Sunday instead.

If you prefer your racing fast and mud-free, however, Kempton's card this afternoon is very acceptable, with a Listed event over a mile at the heart of the action.

With eight runners, one no-hoper and a short-priced favourite in Premio Loco, this is the classic "thieving" each-way event from a bookmaker's point-of-view. Shrewdies the length and breadth of the country will no doubt be having their meaty each-way bets on Orchard Supreme and Mahadee politely declined in the run-up to the race at 3.40pm.

The view from here, though - where odds-on shots normally provoke considerable scepticism - is that Premio Loco is a good thing. Lightly-raced, and with excellent course and distance form to his name, Chris Wall's runner will take all the beating, not least as Bonus, his main rival on ratings, has yet to tackle a mile and has not been obviously crying out for it.

Elsewhere on the card, King's Head has a huge chance in the claimer according to the official ratings, but has not looked the most straightforward of animals in recent times and makes little appeal at around 2-1. Bois Joli, on the other hand, produced her best form since arriving from Italy when winning at Wolverhampton back in October, and while the layoff is a worry, she has every chance if fit enough to do herself justice.

The one to catch the eye in the 7f handicap is Super Frank, who seemed to be returning to form in recent outings but has still been dropped another couple of pounds since his latest start. On last winter's form, including a win over course and distance just under a year ago, he is a well-handicapped horse now.

A final possibility to consider is that Muktasb will make the frame in the 4.40. He has been a frustrating horse to follow for much of the winter, but finally got back to the winners enclosure in an amateurs' event last time. It was a weak race, but may be too readily dismissed as a result. He has been hovering around 11-4 for a place on Betfair this morning and that may be too big.