Never mind the Flat-racing sideshow in Hong Kong. Today's big race is, of course, the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown, though the Scottish Borders National would be a close second.
I got some stick for going for favourites yesterday, which hurts a bit as I generally prefer to take on the market-leaders, but I can't see past The Listener (2.05) in the Irish race. Today's two and a half miles would ordinarily be on the sharp side for Robert Alner's grey but with the going heavy (and that's Irish heavy, let's not forget -- they'll be walking home), his lack of pace shouldn't be a factor.
His two great performances in Ireland last term, when winning the Lexus and running second to Beef Or Salmon in the Hennessy, came at Leopardstown. Punchestown bends the other way but The Listener has form on right-handed tracks and it's hard to see him having any excuses.
Schindlers Hunt and Mansony are young, progressive chasers who would be feared if they were definitely at the top of their games, but both make their seasonal reappearances here and their trainers are talking about this being a first step for the season, rather than a major target.
Rose Davidson, who gets to ride the many decent animals bought by her father, is a fascinating jockey from a betting perspective. Competent by amateur standards, she is regularly shown up when riding against professionals but still sometimes has enough horse under her to win. And of course, punters (being chauvinists) hate to back her, so she's almost always overpriced.
She has every chance on Rayshan (1.50) in the Scottish Borders National at Kelso, as this horse is three from four over fences and could be very well treated. This is a big step up in trip for him and he looked a doubtful stayer at three miles over hurdles, but the slower pace today will help him and he wouldn't be the first to stay a lot further over fences.
Rose may even get the double up on Role On (2.20) in the next, making it a bad betting day for sexist pigs.
2pm Rose wilts
Rayshan pulled up only halfway into the race after a frankly weak display from his pilot. Chalk one up to Miss Davidson's doubters, I'm afraid.
2.10pm The Listener wins at Evens
As expected, the big grey runs them into the ground in Ireland. Mansony puts up a fine effort on his seasonal bow and looks the most likely winner when cruising along three from home, before lack of a recent run finds him out.
2.35pm Rolled over
A disappointing performance from Role On, who fades rapidly from the middle of the back stretch after a loose horse falls in front of him. This was by no means Rose's fault and she is still showing a level-stakes profit on all rides over the last five jump seasons. Despite today's results, I'll continue looking for the right races to back her in.
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