Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit is the avant-garde founder of the Future Forward Party whose ideas have attracted attention, but not always for the right reasons.
Thanathorn: Ruffling a few feathers
His ideas are as controversial as they are divisive, according to his critics, who insisted some of what he has said in public was bound to invite trouble for him and for his newly established party.
Future Forward convened its first general assembly at Thammasat University’s Rangsit campus early this week to a packed stadium. Mr Thanathorn lost no time in getting straight to the point, declaring he would pardon all political prisoners prosecuted during the current regime if the party wins power next February, when the election is tentatively set to be held.
An amnesty, to many political analysts, is dangerous territory. After all, the Yingluck Shinawatra administration tried one seeking to nullify corruption cases dating from 2006 that involved Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck’s older brother.
The issue triggered a snowball effect that led to the the anti-government protest movement, the People’s Democratic Reform Committee. The unrest gave away to a political stalemate and subsequently the coup engineered by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) that ousted the Pheu Thai Party-led government.
Some of Mr Thanathorn’s critics also admitted they were aghast at a remark he allegedly made at the assembly, which was reported by the media, that he planned to tear up the constitution.
Criticism of Mr Thanathorn did not end there. He was also reported to have said at an education forum this week that he thought the time-honoured wai khru ceremony performed annually at schools to pay respect and show gratitude to teachers was archaic.
His liberal views were apparently disturbing to conservatives and sounded particularly critical of the regime, although they may strike a chord with his mostly young supporters looking for a leader who can speak his mind, according to a political source.
However, the source noted the more Mr Thanathorn and his party make their presence felt on the political scene, the more alienating they may make themselves through what some politicians think is their presumably tacit anti-establishment stance.
So far, the source added, Future Forward looks to be growing increasingly aligned to Pheu Thai and the red-shirt movement judging from its overt desire to undo a lot of what has been implemented under the NCPO since the 2014 coup.
At the same time the Election Commission is being urged by Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon to probe Future Forward over the amnesty remark. The deputy premier said the remark may be political canvassing in nature. If so, the party may have broken election rules as well as the law as political activities are banned by the NCPO.
“We must let the EC look into whether this is right or wrong. I think he [Mr Thanathorn] was campaigning in advance [of the election],” the deputy prime minister said.
Political observers have predicted the political mercury will rise further in the build-up to next February and Future Forward could be facing a tougher road ahead.
Heading into the unknown
Suriyasai: Not very confident
The Constitutional Court’s recent decisions on two election-related bills are widely seen as key judicial rulings that will see the country move towards the general election.
With the court stamp of approval, the organic laws governing the elections of MPs and the selection of senators are now clear for submission for royal endorsement. The countdown toward the February polls should start when the MP election law is published in the Royal Gazette.
The court rulings are likely to be used to justify calls for the National Council for Peace and Order to lift the ban on political activities and allow political parties to get back in action. But things are never straightforward with the election roadmap; doubt and scepticism seem to be standard reactions when the polls have been repeatedly pushed back these years.
Legal specialist Jade Donavanik, also an adviser to the Constitution Drafting Committee, is among those who feel the uncertainty has lingered on and doubts the election roadmap will proceed smoothly despite the court rulings.
This is largely because NCPO chief and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha often said that “if there is nothing [wrong], or unless it is necessary, who wants to delay the election?”
According to the academic, he is not so sure if the poll will be held as expected given the frequency of Gen Prayut’s remarks about the unknown factor.
Suriyasai Katasila, deputy dean of Rangsit University’s Social Innovation College, has assessed the political situation and noticed something amiss.
Some political parties are not so keen on making election preparations as they are supposed to be, he points out. And he sees this as a sign of politicians feeling doubtful that elections will take place as expected.
“Several political parties aren’t so sure about the election roadmap. We see activities from newly registered ones only while several existing parties look not so certain. This could cast a shadow on the political scene ... and make politics hard to predict,” he wrote on his Facebook account.
Worse still, such political uncertainty is threatening to throw the reformist agenda into a state of disarray or prevent the reform campaign from gathering steam, according to Mr Suriyasai.
His assessment is based on a lack of evidence from the NCPO that they really do care about making the February election happen. The political activities ban remains firmly in place.
Moreover, he said the public is starting to see more controversial or “unexpected” political issues lately, but failed to elaborate. These elements can have a bearing on the election roadmap.
According to Mr Suriyasai, the February election is not a done deal. There is no real “public commitment” from the regime as to when the polls will take place; all is just speculation and expectation.
Some political observers agree on this. In his latest response to pro-election activists who demand that the vote proceed in November, the prime minister can only say for sure that the polls will not take place before February next year and nothing more.
Mr Suriyasai believes it is time for those in power to start sending signals to the public they are on their way out and the country is en route to an election.
On Tuesday the Constitutional Court is expected to rule on another legal dispute involving the regime’s amendment of the organic law on political parties to make the membership confirmation process necessary.
Most political pundits do not see it as a hurdle of any significance to the roadmap. They think the court’s view on this issue, either for or against, will not affect the elections.
But to some observers, the experience of reneged promises to hold elections in the past four years might come as a lesson that even if the court rules in favour of the regime’s amendment, many questions remain in relation to the election roadmap.
‘Tomatoes’ strike back
Suwit: Holding no grudges
Life was not kind to the former Phra Buddha Isara when police arrested him during a pre-dawn raid at Wat Or Noi in Nakhon Pathom last Thursday.
After a video clip showing armed Crime Suppression Division police storming the former monk’s living quarters went viral, a number of people questioned why the bust was conducted in such a “heavy-handed” manner.
The police team sent in to arrest him comprised numerous officers, sniffer dogs, and explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) personnel, according to a source.
The same source said the raid was so heavy handed that three Special Branch policemen providing protection for the former monk were also overpowered, the source said.
Public criticism was so strong that after the incident, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was forced to apologise for the perceived excessive use of force.
Government spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd said the prime minister reprimanded officials and told them to amend their tactics.
The former monk, who was born Suwit Thongprasert, was charged with running an illegal secret society. The charge stems from an incident in which his guards beat up two plainclothes policemen, took their valuables and detained them for questioning during the “Bangkok Shutdown”, demonstrations in Bangkok in 2014, led by the then People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC).
The demonstration in which the former monk was involved as one of the core leaders sought to oust the Pheu Thai Party-led administration and succeeded.
The former monk also faces a charge of forgery for using the royal initials of the late King Rama IX and Her Majesty the Queen of the late King without permission when he cast a batch of amulets in 2011.
After his arrest, the monk was defrocked and is now in the Bangkok Remand Prison.
He told supporters who recently visited him at the prison that he would not seek bail until “satisfactory progress” has been made in dealing with those involved in the high-profile temple fund embezzlement scandal.
Mr Suwit told his supporters that he held no grudges over the way he was arrested. The matter, he said, should be laid to rest to prevent anyone politicising it.
Suthep Thaugsuban, the former PDRC leader, who is known to have close ties with the monk, sent his lawyer to help the former monk fight his case in court, the source said.
The source said that the police’s alleged use of brute force against the former monk might have been an act of revenge by some “tomato” police who wanted to pay him back for the rough handling his security guards meted out to police during the 2014 protests.
The term “tomato police” has been used to describe officers who support the red-shirt movement either overtly or covertly.
The former activist monk still commands the respect of some soldiers and has a large following supporting him.
He was known for his politically controversial activism including his support for the PDRC-led protest in 2014, and his campaigns to “cleanse the clergy”.
His sympathy for the regime was also obvious when he told supporters visiting him in prison to relay his moral support to the government and the National Council for Peace and Order in working for the sake of the country.
