The 2020 season is going to be fascinating for 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He went 13-3 in his first full season as a starter while posting good numbers and guiding the team to Super Bowl LIV. His performance in the final game last season left something to be desired, but it led to a long conversation in the public about Garoppolo’s viability as a long-term starter.
Signs that take into account larger sample sizes than one or two games point to the 49ers’ quarterback putting together a better 2020 campaign.
We went through some of Garoppolo’s over/unders for the 2020 season from FoxBet.com, and created two of our own, to see whether he’ll go over or under any of those projected numbers.
Over or under: 500.5 pass attempts
Pick: Over 500.5 pass attempts
There are a couple things that factor into an uptick in attempts for Garoppolo. First, he won’t be coming off an injury so there’ll be less of a need to ease him into the 2020 season. Garoppolo averaged just 27 attempts per game over the first seven last year. That number won’t likely be as low out of the gate again. There’s also a chance San Francisco’s defense regresses some and makes more passing necessary in the game script.
If he hits 501 attempts, he’ll be at just over 31 passes per game, up two per game from a season ago. That seems like a reasonable increase in workload for the quarterback while still functioning in a run-heavy offense.
Over or under: 345.5 pass completions
Pick: Over 345.5 completions
More attempts means more completions, but there’s more to the increase in production than an increase in volume. The 49ers’ personnel is full of receivers who thrive after the catch. There’ll be some deeper throws, but Garoppolo is at his best connecting on short and intermediate routes in the middle of the field. That allows him to be efficient and allows the receivers to get in space where they’re at their best. If Garoppolo’s primary targets are Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Kendrick Bourne and Trent Taylor, he’ll get plenty of easy completions in the first and second levels of the passing game, so his 69.1 percent completion rate from last season shouldn’t suffer with more attempts.
Over or under: 3,925.5 passing yards
Pick: Over 3,925.5 passing yards
This feels like a relatively easy pick since we’re subscribing to the idea that Garoppolo will get more attempts next season. He finished 2019 with 3,978 yards, and that was with Emmanuel Sanders banged up for multiple games and George Kittle out for two games. If he keeps his yards per attempt around 8.0, he’d only need to throw it 491 times to hit the over. He’s been over 8.0 yards per attempt in all three seasons with the 49ers, so there’s no reason to believe he shouldn’t stick around that mark and cruise to well over 3,925.5 passing yards.
Over or under: 27.5 passing touchdowns
Pick: Over 27.5 passing TDs
This is one area where an increase in attempts may not be super helpful for projecting an over. Garoppolo should have more than the 27 passing touchdowns he had last season, but it’s not an easy call. He threw touchdowns on 5.6 percent of his throws in 2018, and 5.7 percent of his throws in 2019. That indicates he should go over 27.5 with more attempts, but head coach Kyle Shanahan isn’t afraid to stay run-heavy in the red zone behind a good offensive line, tight end George Kittle and fullback Kyle Juszczyk. San Francisco also doesn’t have a proven red zone threat at receiver, which may keep them leaning on the run game down near the end zone. Garoppolo should still go over 27.5 touchdowns, even if it’s only by one or two.
Over or under: 13.5 interceptions
Pick: Over 13.5 interceptions
There’s some give and take with Garoppolo’s gunslinger mentality. He’ll stand in against pressure waiting to fit a throw into even the slightest window. The results are often mixed. Sometimes he completes consecutive third-and-16s. Other times he throws an interception into a linebacker’s chest. It’s hard to believe this is something that’ll go away over one offseason. That means the projected uptick in pass attempts also means more interceptions. His interception rate is 2.8 percent in three years with the 49ers, meaning he throws picks on 2.8 percent of his throws. That puts him on track to throw more than 13.5 interceptions. If the 49ers can get him to go under on interceptions while hitting the over on everything else, they’ll be in good shape to defend their NFC crown.
