A new wave of tactical voting could hamper progress for Reform UK in Thursday’s local elections, campaigners believe, with even some Conservative voters now saying they will vote Labour or Liberal Democrat.
This could particularly affect the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, where Nigel Farage’s party is still the favourite to overturn a Labour majority of almost 15,000, in what would be a significant blow to Keir Starmer.
The same phenomenon has also been reported in the contest for the new mayoralty of Hull and East Yorkshire, with polls showing the Reform candidate as leading, but where the Liberal Democrats are trying to position themselves as the main challengers.
Falling short in either race would be a blow for Farage, particularly as results in the byelection and some of the six mayoral contests will be declared overnight on Thursday – before those for 24 councils across England also being contested – setting the tone for media coverage.
Voters have become increasingly sophisticated at voting tactically, with the 2024 general election seeing many instances of Labour, Lib Dem or Green voters switching to whichever of the parties was seen as best placed to beat the Conservatives locally.
But according to Labour and Lib Dem officials, the rise of Reform, which is now regularly topping national opinion polls, appears to be boosting this phenomenon, with some voters also seemingly motivated by talk of a future Reform-Conservative alliance.
With the byelection in Runcorn a direct Reform-Labour contest, campaigners say they have not only had Lib Dem and Green supporters promise to back Labour to thwart Reform, but also Conservatives saying the same.
The bulk of Tory support is located in the more prosperous areas of Frodsham and Helsby, close to Chester, with Labour using the final days of the campaign to heavily target centrist Conservatives who dislike Farage.
“A big part of our operation has been to try to squeeze the Tory vote there,” a Labour source said. “It is happening, but to what extent remains to be seen.”
Talk of a future alliance between the Conservatives and Reform has helped push the message, they said. “Lots of the more traditional Tories don’t like the way their party has been dragged to the right. In Runcorn, some people like Farage, but they are tribally anti-Conservative. For both groups these sort of links can be a red line,” they added.
While polling for the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoralty has been less clear, the Lib Dems have used their second place in recent polling to campaign heavily on the idea only they can stop Reform, with a mass of leaflets and digital adverts trying to persuade Labour and Green supporters to vote tactically.
“We’re focusing really hard on an almost postcode-by-postcode campaign in places where we think there is a stop Reform vote,” a Lib Dem official said. “For a lot of voters, Reform are so far off the deep end that it motivates people. They’re less interested in policies, it’s more: ‘Our number one priority is to stop Reform, if you can do that we’ll vote for you.’”
This message, they said, also seemed to be resonating with some Conservative supporters in areas such as East Riding, where the party is traditionally strong.
“In Hull, there are lots of Labour and Green voters who are terrified of Reform. In East Riding, what you might call the softer Conservatives are also increasingly saying: ‘My goodness, I can’t let Reform win.’
“Something has happened in the last 10 days. It feels like a lot of voters are pivoting quite hard into what you could call a ‘stop Reform coalition’.”
Farage has sought to manage expectations before the polls open on Thursday, saying his party lacks the experience and expertise of Labour in on-the-ground campaigning, which he says will particularly restrict their chances in Runcorn.
However, campaigners from other parties say that, in the byelection particularly, Reform have mustered teams of campaigners to knock on doors, augmented by a heavy spend on paid-for mailed leaflets and social media advertising.
The results in Runcorn and the mayoral elections, and more generally in the council votes, will be closely examined for signs of how well the Reform election machine is working, as well as for the emergence of any informal anti-Reform coalition.
While a combined Reform and Conservative polling share would be above 45%, strategists from other parties say any pact between the two would be very likely to make such tactical voting even more prevalent.
