Russia has been accused of jamming the GPS system aboard the plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Bulgaria on Sunday. The incident forced the plane to land at the city of Plovdiv using conventional paper maps, rather than the standard electronic system.
"We can confirm there was GPS jamming, but the plane landed safely in Bulgaria. We have received information from Bulgarian authorities that they suspect that this was due to blatant interference by Russia," a Commission spokesperson said on Monday after the incident.
Three days later Bulgarian officials denied these claims, saying there is "no evidence" of "prolonged interference or jamming" of the GPS signal on von der Leyen's plane.
Bulgaria's Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov said on Tuesday that the country will not investigate the jamming incident on von der Leyen's plane because "such things happen every day."
But on Thursday his transport Minister Grozdan Karadjov denied that the government had submitted any information on the matter to the European Commission, contradicting the Commission's assertion that Bulgarian authorities suspected the disruption was the result of the Kremlin's hybrid warfare.
John Hardie, the deputy director of the Russia Programme at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies told Euronews while it is unclear whether it was a cyber attack or a more traditional electronic warfare attack, "certainly the Russians have capabilities in both those domains that could have potentially been involved."
"Based on the range of this particularly airport from Crimea or other Russian electronic warfare assets it is a little unclear to me exactly how the Russians would have done this, but certainly something like this is right up their alley and would be consistent with other similar actions the Russians have taken against European governments and European companies," he added.
GPS interference has risen dramatically since 2022
In a letter in May, European ministers reported that GPS jamming and spoofing had been observed since 2022 in the Baltic Sea region, mainly from Russia and Belarus, and that GPS interference from aircraft had increased dramatically since August 2024.
Lithuania recorded more than 1,000 cases of GPS interference in June, 22 times higher than in June 2024, according to the country's communications regulator. In Estonia, 85% of flights were affected by GPS interference, according to authorities. Poland recorded 2,732 cases of GPS jamming and spoofing in January 2025.
Euronews spoke to a pilot working for one of Europe's commercial airlines regarding his experience, who confirmed that planes flying close to Ukraine, Israel and the Middle East have experienced more cases of their GPS systems being jammed.
The pilot described it as "not something you remember for the rest of my life. But it's also not something that happens every single day either."
He said the big question is whether the jamming is intentional or not, because "in the history of aviation, there has not been malicious interference yet targeted to airliners" and most pilots whose planes are affected by jamming have no way to tell if it was intentional or not.
Investigating possible Russian links
NATO said it is working to counter Russia's jamming of civilian flights with the alliance's Secretary General Mark Rutte saying the whole continent was under "direct threat from the Russians."
"We are all on the eastern flank now, whether you live in London or Tallinn," he said.
John Hardie from the Foundation for Defence of Democracies told Euronews the threat might even be coming from within the EU territory.
"If the Russians were indeed involved, another possibility is some sort of local actor on the ground with an electronic warfare capability of some sort. That would be in keeping with the modus operandi we've seen the Russians use elsewhere in Europe, kind of recruiting locals, often through Telegram, the Russian social media app, to carry out kind of subversive activities on behalf of Russian intelligence services," he explained.
Hardie pointed out that this possibility would be consistent with a "grey zone" or "Russian active measures campaign which the Russians had been waging for several years now against European countries."
What would be significant in this case, Hardie says, is not just jamming any aircraft, but "timing the operation to affect the airliner carrying Von der Leyen."
"That would be significant and kind of notable, especially if the Russians were operating through some sort of local proxy to be able to time up that operation so it has the effect on the intended target - would be significant."
"Active measures"
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says that the number of Russian sabotage operations in Europe almost quadrupled from 2023 to 2024.
IISS' database of suspected and confirmed Russian sabotage operations targeting Europe, reveals such attacks have been aimed at Europe's critical infrastructure and, despite European security and intelligence officials raising the alarm, have largely been unaffected by NATO, EU and member state responses to date.
"Since 2022 and the expulsion of hundreds of its intelligence officers from European capitals, Russia has been highly effective in its online recruitment of third-country nationals to circumvent European counter-intelligence measures," the IISS said.
The IISS says some NATO member states have assessed Russia's unconventional war to be part of its long-term preparations for a potential military confrontation with NATO.
John Hardie told Euronews that over the course of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine "Vladimir Putin has shown that on the one hand he is very reluctant to conduct a direct military aggression against a NATO member."
"He wants no part of a war with the United States, and for good reason, because he would very likely lose that, at least on the conventional side. But, at the same time, the Russians have very aggressive kind of operating below that threshold of overt military force conducting some of the subversive actions," he said.
Hardie says not only he doesn’t expect this to abate, on the contrary Moscow might be preparing more of these "active measures."
"The Russians could ramp that up as kind of a counter to these discussions of European-led security guarantees for Ukraine, which of course the Kremlin fiercely opposes precisely because they would kind of help impede Russia's efforts to dominate Ukraine."
Mark Rutte warned all alliance members are in danger as the "the threat from the Russians is increasing every day."
"With the latest Russian missile technology for example, the difference now between Lithuania on the front line and Luxembourg, The Hague or Madrid is five to 10 minutes. That's the time it takes this missile to reach these parts of Europe," he cautioned.
How can Europe protect itself?
"I can assure you that we are working day and night to counter this, to prevent it, and to make sure that they will not do it again," Rutte said.
"We have agreed on policies there to really be more effective in this area. I always hated the word hybrid because it sounds so cuddly, but hybrid is exactly this: jamming commercial airplanes with potentially disastrous effects, an assassination attempt on a big industrialist in one of NATO Allied countries, attacking the National Health Service in the United Kingdom," he added.
The EU commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius said the European Union plans to deploy additional satellites in low Earth orbit in order to boost its defences against GPS interference and improve its capabilities to detect it.
Until then pilots are trained to deal with these scenarios and are familiar with alternative navigation methods and even a deliberate GPS jamming doesn't indicate that "they were not trying to bring the plane down" the commercial airline pilot, who wished to remain anonymous, told Euronews.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies stated that no confirmed civilian deaths have been directly linked to Russian sabotage operations in Europe since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"The absence of mass casualties does not imply an absence of intent or capability. Rather, it reflects a strategy designed to intimidate, disrupt and probe the resolve of European governments in a manner carefully calibrated to avoid crossing the threshold that would trigger a forceful retaliatory response," the group said.
