There is no doubt that Syria will become one of the battlegrounds for a new phase of confrontation following US President Donald Trump’s decision on Tuesday to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
Although European and regional states agree with the US administration about the failure of the deal to contain Tehran’s destabilizing behavior in the Middle East, they disagree with Washington on how to address the situation.
Observers agree that Syria could be used as a battleground for any possible confrontation between the US and Iran, particularly following the results of Sunday’s Lebanese parliamentary elections, which saw a resounding victory for “Hezbollah” and its allies. Saturday’s Iraqi elections will likely see the victory of pro-Tehran parties.
There are four factors that make Syrian territories appropriate for a new military confrontation in the post-nuclear phase.
First: The absence of a central authority that rules the country. Syria remains a scene of regional and international conflicts where the regime controls 60 percent of the country’s 185,000 kilometers. Washington’s allies control a third of the country, while Turkish-backed factions and other extremist groups control the remaining areas.
Second: Militias. There are tens of thousands of fighters from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, including Lebanese, Iraqis and Pakistanis, as well as “Hezbollah” fighters and the Russian-backed Tiger forces led by Colonel Suheil al-Hassan.
Third: Revenge. Tehran has vowed to avenge the killing of members of the Revolutionary Guards in last month’s Israeli strike on the T-4 army base in Syria.
Fourth: Absence of political solution. Seven years after the eruption of the Syrian conflict, the political solution is still out of reach: the Geneva talks are frozen, the Sochi efforts to establish a constitutional committee have stumbled and the Astana talks that include Russia, Turkey and Iran are faced with military field challenges.
Consequently, recent military moves have signaled a possible escalation in Syria: Iranian missiles, Israeli military deployment in the Golan Heights, undisclosed political contacts and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Russia on Wednesday.
One question remains: Will Iran escalate the situation after the Iraqi elections or on the anniversary of the Palestinian Nakba and the US embassy’s relocation to Jerusalem? Or will intense contacts succeed to containing the escalation?
