JOHN Swinney has declared that winning a majority of SNP MSPs at next year’s Holyrood election is now the essential route to securing a second independence referendum.
The First Minister will bring a motion to the SNP’s upcoming party conference that abandons the previous position held by Nicola Sturgeon that a joint pro-independence majority of SNP and Green MSPs was sufficient to mandate a vote.
Instead, Swinney says a clear-cut SNP majority is the only proven path to achieving a legally recognised referendum, citing the precedent set in 2011 when Alex Salmond led the SNP to a majority, resulting in the 2014 vote agreed with Westminster.
Writing in the Daily Record, Swinney said: “For us to achieve that independence, the first step is to secure a legal referendum recognised by all.
“In 2011 we secured that reliable and dependable route when the SNP achieved a majority of seats at Holyrood.
“That is the only mechanism that has been proven to deliver such a vote – so that is what we need to deliver again.”
He continued: “That is why I have submitted a motion to the SNP conference proposing that we work to deliver a majority of SNP MSPs in the Scottish Parliament to secure that referendum on independence.
“The SNP has high ambitions for Scotland, and we must be bold to deliver on those ambitions. We must be ready to follow the path which we know can lead us to an independent state.”
The shift in strategy comes amid growing calls within the independence movement for clarity following the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling that Holyrood does not have the legal authority to hold a referendum without UK Government consent.
A senior SNP source told the Record that the Scottish Government still believes an [[SNP]]-Green majority “should” be enough to justify Indyref2, but added: “The reality of the past four years shows this is not going to happen. This is a pragmatic step forward that Westminster will find harder to ignore.”
Swinney’s renewed focus on a single-party majority is also seen as a direct appeal to undecided voters and independence supporters seeking a clear, deliverable mandate.
While some in the wider movement believe a Holyrood or Westminster majority should be enough to begin negotiations on independence without a referendum, Swinney is firmly of the view that a democratic vote remains essential.
His latest intervention reaffirms both his personal and political commitment to delivering independence through a credible and internationally recognised process.
With the 2026 Holyrood election on the horizon, Swinney's message is clear that only an SNP majority will open the door to Scotland’s future as an independent nation.
