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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
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Kate Lyons (now) and Patrick Greenfield (earlier)

Swedish election: deadlock as far right makes gains – as it happened

Sweden Democrats party leader Jimmie Akesson speaks to supporters
Sweden Democrats party leader Jimmie Akesson speaks to supporters Photograph: Tt News Agency/Reuters

Summary

  • Sweden faces a period of political uncertainty after an election that did not leave either main parliamentary bloc with a majority
  • With more than 99% of the vote counted, the centre-left bloc is sitting on 40.6% and the centre-right on 40.2%
  • Analysts predict long negotiations, potentially taking weeks, will be needed to create a majority or a plausible minority government
  • The populist, anti-immigrant party Sweden Democrats won 17.6% of the vote, up on the 12.9% it scored in 2014, but well below the 25% predicted in some polls.
  • The governing Social Democrats, led by prime minister Stefan Löfven, saw their score fall to 28.4%, the lowest for a century but maintained their record of finishing first in every election since 1917
  • Löfven said he would not be resigning, and urged cross-bloc cooperation. He also said the Sweden Democrats “can never, and will never, offer anything that will help society. They will only increase division and hate.”

We’re going to wrap up the live blog for tonight. Thanks for following along. This story is likely to go on for quite some time as discussions and negotiations look set to stretch over the coming days and weeks and we will continue to bring you the news as it unfolds.

Updated

There has been some consternation among those commentating on this election about the way the election has been reported in some US and British media, with some outlets calling the Swedish election a victory for far-right populism.

As Jon Henley, our correspondent in Stockholm helpfully reminds us: “For all the horror and the headlines, 82% of Swedish voters failed to cast their ballots for the Sweden Democrats on Sunday, and there is no chance of anti-immigration nationalists taking a formal part in the next government.”

Jeremy Cliffe, columnist for the Economist, has written an excellent thread on Twitter on this subject, it’s worth reading the whole thing, but here are some highlights.

What next for Sweden? Our European affairs correspondent Jon Henley, who is on the ground in Stockholm predicts not much more will happen tonight as leaders head into horse-trading phase.

Sweden now faces a “protracted period of political uncertainty”, as the two main parliamentary blocs are both well short of a majority, and virtually tied with the centre-left bloc on 40.6% of the vote and the centre-right on 40.2%. Jon Henley writes:

The new government, which could now take weeks to form, will need either cross-bloc alliances between centre-right and centre-left parties, or an accommodation with the Sweden Democrats – long shunned by all other parties because of their extremist roots – to pass legislation, potentially giving the populists a say in policy.

This is Kate Lyons taking over from Patrick Greenfield after what has been a dramatic day in Swedish politics.

Stefan Löfven, who has been prime minister since 2014, has delivered a speech, the most significant lines from it are that Löfven said he would not be resigning, and urged cross-bloc cooperation.

“The Sweden Democrats can never, and will never, offer anything that will help society. They will only increase division and hate.”

The mainstream parties now had a “moral responsibility” to form a government, he said.

Updated

It has been a long day and it is time for for me to head off and hand the live blog over.

Sweden faces a protracted period of political uncertainty after an election that left the two main parliamentary blocs tied but well short of a majority, and the far-right Sweden Democrats promising to wield “real influence” in parliament after making more modest gains than many had predicted, writes the Guardian’s Jon Henley from Stockholm.

With over 99% of votes counted, this is how it stands.

Social Democrats - 28.4%

Moderates - 19.8%

Sweden Democrats - 17.6%

Centre Party - 8.6%

Left Party - 7.9%

Christian Democrats - 6.4%

Liberal Party - 5.5%

Green Party - 4.3%

You can follow the results as they come in here.

Read our full report on today’s general election below.

Have a peaceful evening.

Swedish PM: bloc politics dies tonight

The Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven is up and speaking. He said nothing will be determined tonight but said a cross-bloc government will need to form.

Updated

The leader of Sweden’s Liberal Party, Jan Bjorklund, has said he wanted a centre-right Alliance government but that it would not come as a result of any cooperation with the unaligned, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, according to Reuters.

“I want an Alliance government, but it will not happen in cooperation with the Sweden Democrats,” Bjorklund told a party rally.

The Liberals are part of the four-party Alliance, which was running neck-and-neck with Prime Minister Stefan Lofven’s centre-left bloc with only just over 100 of 6,004 districts left to be counted.

Guy Verhofstadt has been reacting to the vote.

The leader of the far-right Sweden Democrat party has been speaking to supporters.

Jimmie Akesson told a party rally he was prepared to talk and cooperate with all other parties after election results showed gains for his anti-immigration nationalists that he said would translate into real influence, according to Reuters.

“We increase our seats in parliament and we see that we will gain huge influence over what happens in Sweden during the coming weeks, months and years,” Akesson told supporters.

He also challenged Ulf Kristersson, the centre-right Alliance’s candidate for the premiership, to choose between seeking support from the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrat Prime Minister Stefan Lofven.

The eurosceptic, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are shunned by both the ruling centre-left and opposition centre-right blocs, leaving both sides short of a majority and raising uncertainty as to who will be able form a stable government.

Not long to go now. With just under 85% of votes counted, here’s how things stand:

Social Democrats - 28.2%

Moderates - 19.7%

Sweden Democrats - 17.7%

Centre Party - 8.6%

Left Party - 8.0%

Christian Democrats - 6.4%

Liberal Party - 5.5%

Green Party - 4.4%

You can follow the results as they come in here.

Three-quarters of votes counted

We are nearly there. Deadlock it is.

Updated

The far-right Swedish Democrats in Malmo, Sweden’s third largest city, are feeling bullish.

A third of votes counted

We are a third of the way there and the count is looking difficult for the centre-left bloc. The Green Party must make 4% of the vote to be assigned seats in parliament. Without the Green Party, the left bloc is in real trouble, as Christian Christensen notes.

There’s some really interesting analysis on tonight’s exit polls on the thelocalsweden liveblog about what Sweden’s next government could look like.

Political scientist Stigbjörn Ljunggren says that a government compromising of the Moderate party and the Christian Democrats backed by the support of the Sweden Democrats could take power.

He tells their reporter James Savage:

The Sweden Democrats would let them govern and then gradually during the next four years tighten the thumbscrews, bit by bit. They might right from the beginning force them to govern with a Social Democrat budget, like they did with the Social Democrats [in 2014], when they had to govern with a centre-right budget for the first year.

If you’re just joining us, take a read of the latest analysis from our European affairs correspondent Jon Henley at the bottom of this post to get up to date.

We had the first of two exit polls about an hour and a half ago, which showed stalemate between the left and right blocs and sizeable gains for the far-right Sweden Democrats.

TV4 exit poll

Jon Henley writes:

On a good night for the smaller parties, the ex-communist Left nearly doubled its score to 9.8% and the centre-right Centre and Christian Democrat parties both advanced.

But the outcome, if the polls are proved correct, leaves the centre-right and centre-left blocs that have defined Swedish politics for decades neck-and neck, and well short of a parliamentary majority in the 349-seat Riksdag.

The new government, which could now take weeks to form, will need either cross-bloc alliances between centre-right and centre-left parties, or an accommodation with the Sweden Democrats, long shunned by all the other parties because of their extremist roots, to pass legislation – potentially giving the populists a say in policy.

Read more here:

Updated

The excitement has boiled over on the Swedish election commission website, which has crashed.

The votes are still being counted, thankfully.

The potential permutations required to form a government in Sweden might get complicated in the coming hours. Richard Orange is here to help, however.

What next?

Polling stations have now closed and votes are being counted. We are expecting a partial tally of the vote from Sweden’s Election Authority between 9pm and 10pm UK time. Final results should follow a couple of hours later.

There does not appear to be a Swedish David Dimbleby equivalent who will have to talk into the early hours while results trickle in.

Richard Orange has been speaking to the mayor of Malmo following the exit polls.

Updated

It appears that Sweden’s political parties might take a while to form a government if the exit polls play out as projected.

Both the FT’s Nordic and Baltic correspondent Richard Milne and CNN’s Max Foster, who is half Swedish, describe the exit polls as a “dead heat”.

Richard Orange notes that the Green party appear to have only just made it to parliament. Political parties in Sweden must get at least 4 percent of the vote to be assigned a seat under their proportional representation system.

Updated

Here is some important context from journalism professor and Guardian contributor Christian Christensen. The first exit poll is traditionally less accurate.

Here is the second exit poll from Swedish Television, traditionally more accurate at predicting the outcome.

It shows that the far-right Sweden Democrats are projected to win 19.2% of the vote, winning the second largest share of the vote after the Social Democrat.

Both polls appear to show a dead heat between the left and right blocs, with the Social Democrat winning more votes than in 2014 but far less than some had feared.

Updated

Here’s some immediate reaction from the Guardian’s European affairs correspondent Jon Henley. Forming a new government in Sweden might take some time.

TV4’s exit poll, if it proves to be correct, looks deeply disappointing for the Sweden Democrats who are projected to win just 16.3% of the vote, only 3.4% more than their 2014 score and far below the 25%-plus polls suggested they were on course for earlier in the summer.

But it looks like being a bad night for the two big mainstream parties, the centre-left Social Democrats and centre-right Moderates, too. They fell to 25.4%, their worst score since 1908, and 18.4% respectively.

The big winners were the smaller parties: the ex-communist Left, nearly doubling their score to 9.8%, and the centre-right Centre and Christian Democrat parties, both up by a roughly a third from 2014.

The centre-right and centre-left blocs are practically neck and neck on 41% and 40.1% respectively. Forming the new governments is going to be a long and complicated process.

Updated

Exit poll projects bad night for far-right Sweden Democrats

The centre-left block of Social Democrats, Green and Lefty parties are projected to win 41% of votes, according to a TV4 voter poll.

But here’s the big news...

The anti-immigration, populist Sweden Democrats have done far worse than they had hoped. There was silence in their HQ when the result was announced, according to the FT’s Richard Milne.

Get ready everyone...

What to expect later tonight

Voting stations are set to close in around an hour and exit polls will be published by Sweden’s two main broadcasters. The polling ahead of the election showed the Social Democrats in the lead with 25.7%. We should know the final results before 11pm UK time but a new government is unlikely to be formed for weeks.

Sweden graphic

Here is an extract from Jon Henley’s excellent Sweden election explainer on the complex political situation and what could happen next.

How do things stand now?

On the left, the Social Democrats have – like many classic northern European labour parties – seen their support plummet in recent years and are now on around 25%.

But the more radical Left party, which stayed out of government last time but wants to be part of any future leftist coalition, has surged to nearly 10% from 5.7% in 2014, with the Greens holding relatively firm on over 5%.

So the combined left could hope for a shade over 40% of the vote – marginally ahead of the conservative Alliance, in which support for the Moderates has slipped to barely 18% but the free-market Centre party (10%) is well up on 2014 levels.

All parties have pledged not to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats, currently lying in second place on 19-20%. But assuming both main blocs end up on around 40%, whatever government emerges from the post-election horsetrading will need backing from either the opposition, or the far-right populists, to function.

Analysts believe that could clear a path for Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson to become the next prime minister, perhaps at the head of a single-party minority government, with ad hoc, informal support from the Sweden Democrats – for which the far-right party would expect some influence over policy.

A strong performance by the Sweden Democrats could create its own problems for the anti-immigration party, however: although it might force mainstream parties to engage, compromising on their fundamental principles for a share of power has rarely won populist parties more votes.

Sunday’s vote is the first since the 2015 migrant crisis. Sweden has taken in around 163,000 asylum seekers since then, the most per capita of any EU nation.

The issue has proved divisive in Sweden, also hitting international headlines. In July, a video from student activist Elin Ersson preventing the deportation of an Afghan asylum seeker from Sweden by refusing to sit down until the man was removed from the flight went viral.

Not everyone agrees with Ersson. The Sweden Democrats have done much to capitalise on the discontent and for voter Eleza Blostain, the far-right party must be stopped.

Updated

Richard Orange is in Malmo speaking to voters for the Guardian, some more stylish than others.

Emil Jönsson turned up to vote for the Green Party dressed in a jacket, trilby hat and bow tie.

“It’s voting day. You have to dress yourself up,” he explained. “It’s a festival like Christmas or Midsummer.”

He said he was worried about the situation.

“It’s very unclear, it feels pretty scary that so many will vote for the Sweden Democrats.”

He said that he would support the Green Party’s leaders if they joined a centre-right bloc to prevent the Sweden Democrats having leverage over the government.

“That would be better than that Sweden Democrats have influence,” he said.

Mac Tamandi, who came to Sweden from Cameroon 40 years ago, voted earlier in the day at the polling station at Stenkulaskolan, where he works as a janitor.

“I haven’t voted for a right-wing party at any rate because they’re after my ass,” he said.

“They’re the ones who want to to kick me out of here. They have a different tone now, but I know what they were like in the beginning.

“I’ve followed [Sweden Democrat leader] Jimmie Åkesson since he was about 20. Maybe he’s singing sweet music today, but it’s going to be bitter music if he’s in power.”

Updated

Voter Claes Wennberg is worried about investment in teachers and nurses in Sweden. He says the election is about welfare and rising taxes.

One hundred years ago this month, the Spanish flu pandemic wiped out up to 100 million people around the world. It was devastating, but the pandemic helped to create Sweden’s modern welfare state. Read more here:

Updated

Shootings are not so important to 25-year-old Robin Eggers, who says they have become “a little bit dull to me”. He is deciding between the Liberals, Moderates and Christian Democrats.

A rise in gang violence in Sweden is on the minds of some voters. There have been a series of shootings, even grenade attacks.

Frank tells Míša Kožmínová that he’s “voting for the right” because of the violence.

One example of the violence took place this summer in Malmo, Sweden’s third biggest city, where five people were wounded in a shooting.

Back in 2015, David Crouch reported about life in the ‘ghettoes without hope’ near Gothenburg.

Updated

She may not be able to vote today, but I imagine 15-year-old Greta Thunberg is following developments closely. Earlier this month, she began a school strike to protest political inaction against climate change in Sweden.

Greta goes back to school tomorrow, but as David Crouch reported at the start of September, she has been sitting quietly on the cobblestones outside parliament in central Stockholm every day over the past few weeks, handing out leaflets that declare: “I am doing this because you adults are shitting on my future.”

Greta is not the only person who is worried about climate change.

Aballdir Jamal, 36, from Hisingen, near Gothenburg says he is voting for the Green party.

Here’s the latest from the Guardian’s European affairs correspondent Jon Henley, who is in the Swedish capital. Voters have said today’s general election is a “critical moment for this country.”

Outside the Hedvig Eleonora school in the prosperous Stockholm neighbourhood of Östermalm, Gabriel Kroon, 21 and sporting a Sweden Democrats 2018 tee-shirt, had one worry. “The only question about this election is whether the other parties will work with us after it,” he said.

Kroon, who is standing for the far-right party in local council elections, cut a lonely figure amid a long line of Centre and Moderate party conservatives.

But the Sweden Democrats were “making good progress” even in middle-class, urban areas like Östermalm, he said, and hoping for a solid 10-12% of the vote. “We’ll get there,” he said. “If not this time, then next time. They can’t ignore this many voters for ever.”

Others, however, were determined they would not. Harry Klagsbrun and his partner Marina Szugalski, who both voted for the liberal Centre party, said Sweden’s 2018 election was about the defence of liberal democracy: “One that takes into account the needs and the views of everyone, including minorities,” Klagsbrun, who works in banking, said pointedly.

Szugalski said it was “really dangerous not to understand what you’re actually voting for if you vote Sweden Democrat. But I think people are starting to see we are standing on the edge of a very slippery slope right now.”

Mikaela Lundh, 28, was equally forceful. A centre-right Moderate party supporter, she said this year’s vote “feels way, way more important than previous elections. This really feels like a critical moment for this country.”

While the Sweden Democrats would not enter government however well they did, with neither the established centre-right or centre-left blocs in with a chance of parliamentary majority, a strong showing would give the far-right party the power to block legislation in parliament.

“That in itself is harmful, because Sweden needs reforms,” Lundh said. “The government needs to be able to take decisions. We need to be able to act.”

For Anna Davidson, an educator at the Stockholm history museum, and her husband Viktor, a photographer, the environment was the number one priority. Both voted for the Green party. But both also considered their choice “a vote against racism”, said Anna.

“The Sweden Democrats are a racist party, of course they are. It worried me that they might do well. It worries me that this might be the first step towards their normalisation, that bit by bit, Sweden may be taking its first steps towards a government like Poland’s,” she said.

Vikto said immigration and integration, the Sweden Democrats’ potent electoral hobbyhorse, were “of course an issue. They need to be talked about, but just not in this way. Yes, they have caused problems for some people. But frankly, the people coming here face far, far bigger ones.”

Agneta, who declined to give her second name or say who she was voting for, was not so sure. “The number one priority is to get this government out,” she said. “They throw money at everything, but we see no results. Lots, for example, goes to immigrants - but what do we get back from that, really?”

The anti-immigration, populist Sweden Democrats have come up a lot in conversations with voters in and around Gothenburg, according to journalist Zina Fragkiadaki.

Voter Kent Nilson had plenty to say about them.

So did Bellma Lokacevice.

Speaking of Trump, Swedes are voting for the first time since the American president suggested a non-existent terror attack took place in the country, sparking the ‘JeSuisIkea’ movement.

Students from the journalism programme at the University of Gothenburg have also been speaking to voters for the Guardian.

Renyu Jin spoke to Febe Jacobsson, 64, a staff member at Gothenburg Concert Hall, who said the environment was a big concern for her.

Wildfires have been raging inside the Arctic circle this summer during freakishly hot, dry weather in Sweden, as Jonathan Watts, the Guardian’s global environment editor has reported extensively.

Updated

Jon Henley is reporting from Stockholm, where locals were up early to vote.

Back in Sjöbo, some candidates were doing whatever they could to win last minute votes this morning.

Lars Lundberg, who leads the Christian Democrats in the town, handed out 1,000 of his own election sausages to voters.

“It feels good,” he said. “It feels hopeful that the alliance are going to take power.”

He said he would not be concerned if his party became reliant on the Sweden Democrats in government.

“25 percent of the people vote for them, so if they want to support a government with normal policies, I think it’s ok. I think it’s better that they should be inside the barriers, not outside.”

Richard Orange has been speaking to voters in southern Sweden for the Guardian.

Emil Nilsson, 37, was one of the first to arrive at the town art gallery in Sjöbo, where the Sweden Democrats won 30 percent of the vote in 2014.

“As I see it SD is a protest party and they wouldn’t have needed to exist if politics had been done in another way,” he said, hugging his 8-yr old daughter Maria.

“You can get upset about the party and you can say bad things about their supporters, but SD are a result of bad politics in my opinion.”

He said he wasn’t sure that the party would win real influence on a national level.

“I’m not sure that they’ll get it, but then it’s just a question of waiting for another four years. if they shut them put people will get more and more irritated.”

“If they get 20-25%, it’s going to be hard to freeze out a 4th or a 5th of the Swedish people. We will see.”

His Ukrainian girlfriend Ludmilla was not eligible to vote yet but said when she could she planned to vote for SD.

Admir Shkodra, 32, who came to Sjöbo from Kosovo in the 1990s, said he was voting Social Democrat.

“I don’t want to vote myself out of the country,” he said of SD. “I have a little daughter I have to think about, and she has both a foreign parent and a Swedish one.”

He said he could not understand the 12 percent of foreign-born citizens which support the Sweden Democrats, according to a survey in May.

“I’m very surprised that foreigners are voting Sweden Democrat.”

He said he wasn’t too worried about what would happen after the election.

“I don’t know what the consequences will be but, I’m not very frightened.”

Updated

Opening summary

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the 2018 Swedish general election.

I’m Patrick Greenfield and I’ll be guiding you through what could be a dramatic night in Swedish and European politics from our offices in London. Jon Henley, the Guardian’s European affairs correspondent, is reporting from Sweden and we’ll have regular updates from reporters all over the country.

More than 7.5 million Swedes have been voting to decide who will represent them at the 349-seat Riksdag in this Sunday’s general election. From them, a new government will succeed the Social Democrat-Green minority coalition of the prime minister, Stefan Löfven, which has run the country since 2014. The outcome of today’s vote is uncertain and the true level of support for the populist, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats is hard to judge.

As Jon Henley writes:

With far-right, anti-immigration, nation-first and populist parties making advances across Europe and now in government in Italy, Austria, Norway and Finland, the election, in a country long seen as a model of political stability, is being closely watched as the latest test of anti-establishment sentiment on the continent.

Climate change, immigration, the migrant crisis, gang violence and Sweden’s membership of the EU have all featured in pre-election debates. If you want to know more about the major issues, pre-election polling and each political party, please read Jon Henley’s fantastic explainer on Sweden’s general election.

The Swedish Institute has also written up a great breakdown of political parties in Sweden.

Polling stations close at 8pm Swedish time, that’s 7pm back here in London. We expect first estimates of the outcome soon after and the final results are due before midnight. Saying that, we probably won’t know what the next Swedish government looks like for weeks.

Updated

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