- SVB Securities conducted a pro-forma analysis of the financial impact to Merck & Co Inc (NYSE:MRK) from a potential acquisition of Seagen Inc (NASDAQ:SGEN).
- The analysts refrain from commenting on the probability of the deal happening. The analysis suggests that the short-term impact on EPS from the potential acquisition will likely be meaningfully dilutive.
- Related: Merck Shows Takeover Interest In Seagen: WSJ.
- According to SVB, the deal decreases forecasted GAAP EPS by -12%, -7%, and -2% in 2023, 2024, and 2025 from that expected for standalone Merck.
- But, in the longer term, the positive impact on free cash flow (FCF) generation, top & bottom-line growth, and partial mitigation of Merck's Keytruda loss of exclusivity in 2028 are supportive of the deal.
- The analysts expect lower Keytruda revenue estimate dependence in 2028 to 42.5% from 48.4%.
- Further, a DCF analysis (2024-2032E) suggests that the combined entity could be worth $136/share (~$388 billion equity value). SVB forecasts Merck at $104/share.
- The combined entity can generate an estimated FCF of ~$247 billion from 2024 to 2032 versus around $176 billion for standalone Merck.
- But increasing debt costs, and decreasing equity values, could lead some investors to pause, despite the longer-term impact on FCF, SVB writes.
- Price Action: MRK shares are up 2.32% at $86.58, and SGEN shares are up 1.59% at $168.08 during the market session on the last check Tuesday.
