Boris Johnson may have survived the vote of confidence called by his backbenchers on June 6, but his problems are far from over. The ballot revealed that two in five of his parliamentary colleagues voted against him, and though Conservative Party rules currently do not allow for another challenge within 12 months, there has been talk of amending this procedure. After the vote, Mr. Johnson spoke of ‘rebooting’ his premiership. But the disillusionment of the electorate, and the anger of his own party, including those backbenchers whose votes he needs to pass any legislation, still remain.
Self-created problems
Mr. Johnson’s problems are almost entirely of his own making. He has been investigated for — and found guilty of — having broken the strict COVID-19 regulations he shepherded through. There is disgust that while ordinary people locked themselves away, Downing Street seemed awash in a series of alcohol-fuelled parties. Mr. Johnson was pictured at several, but clever legal responses to a police questionnaire on these gatherings meant that he was fined for only one — a celebration of his birthday, for which his Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was also fined. The Metropolitan Police issued 126 fines to 83 people for 12 lockdown violations at No. 10 — including gatherings that Mr. Johnson attended. Rallying support before the confidence vote, Mr. Johnson replied to a backbencher’s query on the parties with ‘I’d do it again’. Bravado or hubris? It is difficult to tell, but what is clear is that for Boris Johnson, rules apply to the little people.
For some in his party, this ‘culture of casual law-breaking’ is the final straw. A former junior Minister, Jesse Norman, publicly called out the Prime Minister’s disregard for the rules and agreements he has made, warning that he is weakening his party and the country in the process. Mr. Johnson is also causing disquiet by the personality traits that have served him politically so well until now: bluster and a keen populist antenna; a refusal to be bound by commitments; and a willingness to tear up the rule book.
The unspoken rule book laid down the expectation that Mr. Johnson would resign when he was fined for breaking the law. Mr. Johnson refused. Instead, he changed the Ministerial Code so that ‘minor’ breaches would not automatically become a resignation matter. One of Britain’s most respected contemporary historians, Lord Hennessy, has described this as ‘a bonfire of decencies’ and a challenge to a system of government and governance that, starting with the Constitution, relies heavily on unwritten convention.
Plans and likely hurdles
Seemingly to distract, Mr. Johnson is pushing ahead with a number of plans of doubtful legality. The first is his threat to tear up the Northern Ireland Protocol that he agreed with the European Union (EU) as part of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, and which was meant to overcome the obstacles posed by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which provides for peace in Northern Ireland by removing the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. This unilateral rewriting of the agreement is probably illegal. It most certainly will damage Britain’s credibility and relations with the EU, which is still its largest trading partner, Brexit notwithstanding.
Editorial | Weakened in victory: On Boris Johnson winning no-confidence vote
Mr. Johnson’s government will also face legal challenges over plans to resettle refugees (who have been deemed to have entered the United Kingdom illegally) in Rwanda, a state whose human rights record the U.K. has disparaged. The plan has been criticised as unethical, uneconomical, impractical and possibly illegal by a range of public figures — from the Archbishop of Canterbury, former Prime Minister Theresa May, civil servants in the Home Office, and reportedly, Prince Charles. These concerns are secondary to Mr. Johnson. Those singled out for resettlement will not make a material difference to the total number of refugees, but this dog-whistle distraction will rally the party faithful to the old tried and tested cause of immigration.
Mr. Johnson is relying on populism to pull him through. To a country that is struggling with a cost of living crisis, rising inflation, falling living standards and a sense of dread over rising energy costs, Boris Johnson’s promises to the country have been a pledge to return to imperial measurements and to dust off an old plan to offer home ownership to those currently relying on state support but without a plan to build more affordable homes in an already overheated housing market. The resurrection of imperial measurements is emblematic of Mr. Johnson’s slipping hold on power. He entered Downing Street on the back of Brexit promises of ‘taking back control’, returning Britain to its former (presumably imperial) glory, and making Britain a global powerhouse for trade and innovation by paradoxically relying on its historical greatness. Mr. Johnson rallies the faithful by summoning history. A return to pounds and ounces will not bring back the Empire and all the money that flowed to Britain from it. It will not even cause the former colonies to suddenly desire a trade deal with Britain unless it serves their interests.
There are concerns
Mr. Johnson now has to deliver. Perhaps he is only still in Downing Street because there is no obvious replacement. However, the Conservatives will almost certainly lose two by-elections later this month. He has also managed to upset almost every segment of his party for reasons that go beyond his COVID-19 rule breaking. Some disagree with his recent tax rises; others criticise Brexit for either being too extreme for the centrists, or not extreme enough for those on the far right; and yet more are deeply concerned about the personal failings of a flawed individual. For now, Mr. Johnson will limp on, but, barring a political miracle, it is only a matter of time before he is challenged again.
Priyanjali Malik is a London-based author and commentator
