Reform UK appears to be suffering a significant drop in popularity, with a new poll showing support has slumped by five points.
The More in Common poll, released on Wednesday, shows Nigel Farage’s party on 25 per cent. The Tories are edging closer to Reform and are up by three points, on 22 per cent.
The eight-point swing has left Mr Farage’s party with its lowest share in a More in Common poll since April last year and comes as Reform hopes to hoover up as many as 1,500 council seats in the local elections in May.
A number of Reform insiders have privately raised concerns about the impact of Rupert Lowe’s new right-wing party, Restore Britain, which has been measured at 4 per cent in other polls.
Mr Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth who left Reform last year after a massive row with then chairman Zia Yusuf and Mr Farage, told The Independent: “We are causing them big problems. People are bored with [Farage].”
The findings also raise questions over how much of an asset Mr Farage still is to his party. Although his net approval rating of -20 per cent among voters is still well above Sir Keir Starmer's -43 per cent, it is his worst personal result since last year’s election.
Kemi Badenoch is on -13 per cent, Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey is on -14, and Green leader Zack Polanski is on -19 per cent – his lowest rating yet.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, emphasised that “this is just one poll”, but said the results “match some dips with some of our fellow pollsters”.
Nevertheless, after two polls in a row with Reform on 30 per cent, which has been the highest of the main polling companies, More in Common appears to be moving to around the same findings as YouGov, which has had Reform on 24 per cent, the lowest polling company for Reform.
Polling experts, including Sir John Curtice, have noted that Reform’s support has been sliding since the start of 2026.
He told The Independent: “More in Common tend to be higher for the Tories than most polls. They had them on 22 in March and February. But the Reform figure brings More in Common closer to other pollsters. They were the only ones still to have them at 30.”
Mr Farage recently attacked YouGov, accusing the company of “deliberately manipulating” the findings to make them look better for the Tories and worse for Reform.
The polling expert Lord Robert Hayward told The Independent: “This fall in the support for Reform is larger than I expected.”
A Tory source told The Independent: “It is only one poll, but we are pretty confident that it is when, not if, that we have a poll with us ahead of Reform at some point in the coming months. That will be a game-changer when it happens.
“Kemi is urging people to be patient behind the scenes because we are moving in the right direction and Reform are definitely dropping.”
But Reform’s support is remaining strong in many parts of the UK, with a JL Partners MRP poll predicting they will be the second biggest party in Wales at the local elections, with 29 of the 96 seats, behind Plaid on 33. The result would be a disaster for Labour, which would be reduced to third place on a mere 17 seats, losing control of Wales for the first time.
Meanwhile, Labour sources have also been buoyed by the poll result, which puts them ahead of the Greens on 21 per cent to 13 per cent after YouGov had put Mr Polanski’s party ahead.
A Labour source said: “I think the only safe assumption currently is that it’s all to play for. It’s extremely fragmented.”
They added that the polls are not even picking up on a new cohort of voters with 16-year-olds able to vote for the first time at the next general election, which they believe will help them.
Starmer says he disagrees with former Nato chief’s ‘corrosive complacency’ claim
Badenoch accuses Labour of ‘fiddling while Rome burns’ after sex toy pledge
Sexual health charities hit out at Farage over ‘disappointing’ HIV comments
Trump may be ‘jealous’ of Pope Leo’s approval ratings, polling guru says
Reeves: Trump’s Iran war is a mistake and has not made the world safer
UK to send £752m and 120,000 drones to Ukraine to bolster defences against Russia
