We’re gearing up for Supergirl on June 26. Jason Momoa’s been hitting red carpets on his motorcycle. Milly Alcock’s been bringing back the casual carpet fit. The whole thing has screamed “fun.” Which is why I was a little surprised to see box office estimates going the way of The Marvels. If you can remember back to 2023, this is not a good thing.
Here’s what’s happening. Supergirl’s tracking has been a little up and down. Box Office Pro, which spends considerable time on long range forecasting, has the movie opening at $45-$55 million domestically. However, a new report over at World of Reel estimates the movie might only make in the $40 million+ range, which is garnering it comparisons to other superhero films that were ultimately considered to be box office disappointments.
Yes, I’m talking about The Marvels, which made about $47 million opening weekend. It was a No. 1 stunner opening weekend, but it didn’t linger there. Disney ultimately stopped tracking the movie’s grosses before it had even made back its budget globally.
The Marvels’ budget was a little bloated at around $250 million. Supergirl, on the other hand, was reportedly made for around $175 million and would only need $315+ million in grosses to break even, given theaters and studios split ticket sales. Yet, if the movie only kicks off with $40 million, it will be a slog to get there.
This is a shame, because the movie is very different then The Marvels or like Morbius, another heroes-property movie with a notoriously low opening weekend. This 2026 movie release has an already-established character in Superman, but it's the new characters who really pop.
This Is Dumb, Because Supergirl Is The Perfect Summer Movie
Outside of opening weekend box office estimates, Supergirl and The Marvels have one other thing in common: much shorter runtimes. In The Marvels’ case, I thought there was more story to be told, but in Supergirl’s case, reactions seem to indicate most of what the movie does works. There have been some mixed perspectives here, but I think the average viewers’ experience will be much, much more positive than “mixed.” As I noted, Supergirl is the perfect summer movie.
In case you wondered, Supergirl is a low-stakes, short runtime, fun adventure film. The perfect summer movie.
There’s still a reasonable chance box office estimates could be off base, or even very off base, and people might come out to theaters in much larger droves than is currently being expected. We’ve seen that several times this year, as movies like Obsession actually saw an increase in the percentage of ticket sales in the second week of release. We’ve also seen some established properties like The Mandalorian and Grogu falter.
In short, it’s been a weird year. Supergirl falls into an odd area as both established and brand new, with an actress who broke big on House of The Dragon and does such good work she deserves to be a household name. And yet, It really needs the core audience to come out and see it; I hope they do.
