Tuesday will bring the start of the second legs of the 2025–26 Champions League round of 16 ties.
Big names like Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich all seem to have one foot in the quarterfinals already after emphatic victories last week, while Arsenal, Liverpool and Barcelona still have work to do to join them in the last eight.
After this weekend’s domestic action, the Opta supercomputer has been calculating every remaining team’s chances of victory, and there is a new team at the top of the pile.
Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner
In the immediate aftermath of the first legs, Bayern Munich were backed as the favorites to win the Champions League. Now, however, that honor goes to Arsenal.
The Gunners, the only team to win every game in the league phase, had been leading the standings for weeks before being held to a 1–1 draw at Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern, meanwhile, surged ahead with a 6–1 thumping of Atalanta.
The roles have now reversed, however, with Arsenal back at the top of the predicted rankings.
| Club | Chances of Winning |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 28.21% |
| Bayern Munich | 20.55% |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 10.83% |
| Barcelona | 10.61% |
| Real Madrid | 8.66% |
| Atlético Madrid | 6.23% |
| Liverpool | 5.20% |
| Newcastle | 2.57% |
| Bodø/Glimt | 2.08% |
| Man City | 1.74% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.50% |
| Galatasaray | 0.73% |
| Sporting CP | 0.53% |
| Chelsea | 0.49% |
| Tottenham | 0.07% |
| Atalanta | 0.00% |
Bayern have only fallen down to second and are still seen as one of only two teams with a significant chance of victory. Their odds of 20.55% are nearly double the team behind them, which is now Paris Saint-Germain.
The French giants, holding a 5–2 advantage over Chelsea, have climbed above Barcelona, whose odds have dropped slightly but still remain above 10%.
At 8.66%, Real Madrid’s chances of winning have actually marginally increased, keeping them comfortably ahead of city rivals Atlético Madrid. Both teams have three-goal advantages to protect against Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur, respectively.
Liverpool and Newcastle United both hold their places in the rankings, but what was a group of three English clubs has now been interrupted by everybody’s favorite underdogs. Bodø/Glimt’s odds might have dropped, but Man City have tumbled even further and are now given just a 1.74% chance of sealing another European crown.
Bayer Leverkusen have left the sub-one group, now enjoying odds of 1.50% and leaving five teams feeding off scraps at the bottom of the rankings.
Of those five, Galatasaray are the only side actually holding an advantage heading into the second legs. The Turkish giants beat Liverpool 1–0 at home but are clearly not backed to get the job done at Anfield.
Chelsea are given just a 0.49% chance of victory, seeing a drop in their odds after the weekend defeat to Newcastle, while Tottenham have actually climbed up from 0.05% to the lofty heights of 0.07% after flashing a glimmer of hope against Liverpool.
Champions League Round of 16 Fixtures
| Second Leg | Team Most Likely to Advance |
|---|---|
| Sporting CP vs. Bodø/Glimt (0–3) | Bodø/Glimt (86.87%) |
| Arsenal vs. Bayer Leverkusen (1–1) | Arsenal (78.95%) |
| Chelsea vs. PSG (2–5) | PSG (94.09%) |
| Man City vs. Real Madrid (0–3) | Real Madrid (86.56%) |
| Barcelona vs. Newcastle (1–1) | Barcelona (67.10%) |
| Bayern Munich vs. Atalanta (6–1) | Bayern Munich (99.91%) |
| Liverpool vs. Galatasaray (0–1) | Liverpool (58.78%) |
| Tottenham vs. Atlético Madrid (2–5) | Atlético Madrid (95.94%) |
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Reveals New Champions League Favorites Before Round of 16 Second Legs.
