Wrexham dream of securing a place in the Premier League next season, but their chances of earning a record fourth consecutive promotion will rely on their ability to make the EFL Championship playoffs.
The Red Dragons were largely counted out before the 2025–26 campaign kicked off. Not many thought Phil Parkinson’s side, which was stuck in the National League only three years ago, had a chance of hanging with the best teams in England’s second tier.
Yet the oldest club in Wales has slowly found its footing in the Championship, surging from the bottom of the table after a poor start to the season into the race for the playoff spots. Dropped points in their last two league matches against Millwall and Bristol City, though, have pumped the breaks on Wrexham’s ascent.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Red Dragons’ chances of securing a place in the playoffs and ultimately, a spot in the English top-flight next season.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Championship Table
Championship Title Race
| Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 62 | 85.43 | 47.12 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 61 | 84.76 | 34.32 |
What was beginning to look like a runaway for Coventry atop the Championship standings has now turned into a tight battle with Middlesbrough. Only one point separates the two teams in the current table, and according to Opta, even less than that will be the difference in the fight for silverware.
The supercomputer predicts Frank Lampard’s men will finish with 85.43 points, while the Boro claim 84.76. With such close totals, even the slightest of slip ups in the final three months of the season could swing the title race.
Should Coventry make good on their 47.12% chances of sitting at the summit come May, then Middlesbrough will have to accept the consolation of securing an automatic bid to the Premier League alongside the Sky Blues—just without the additional hardware.
Playoff Spots
| Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Playoff Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ipswich Town | 54 | 80.53 | 63.22 |
| 4 | Millwall | 56 | 77.27 | 76.96 |
| 5 | Hull City | 54 | 76.17 | 75.86 |
| 6 | Southampton | 46 | 68.07 | 26.42 |
| 7 | Derby County | 48 | 67.82 | 24.60 |
| 8 | Wrexham | 48 | 67.41 | 20.86 |
| 9 | Preston | 48 | 66.60 | 15.76 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 47 | 65.73 | 12.22 |
The teams that finish from third to sixth place in the EFL Championship get to compete in the playoffs, where the winner joins the league’s top two teams promoted to the Premier League next season.
As it stands, Opta currently backs Ipswich Town, Millwall, Hull City and Southampton to be the four teams competing for a chance to play at Wembley Stadium. The Saints are projected to finish in the final playoff spot with around 68 points.
Derby County and Wrexham are on the outside looking in, sitting in seventh and eighth place respectively. Both clubs are expected to earn around 67 points, just one shy of the tally keeping Southampton in sixth place.
The good news for the Red Dragons, though, is that they are well within reach of securing a top six finish, per the supercomputer. The Welsh outfit is also the final club in the top 10 given over a 20% chance of making the Championship playoffs, a sign of hope for Parkinson’s men.
The scary part for Wrexham is their actual promotion chances. Even if the club snags a spot in the top six by the end of the season, Opta only gives it a 0.14% chance of coming out on top of the playoffs and booking its place in the Premier League in 2026–27.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Wrexham’s Championship Playoffs, Promotion Chances.
