It’s been a ludicrous summer of spending in the Premier League with a record £3.19 billion ($4.28 billion) splashed across all 20 clubs in the division.
A large chunk of that total came from the Premier League’s traditional ‘big six’, who helped propel the competition to an unprecedented splurge. In fact, the English top flight spent more than La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga combined.
Such a chaotic summer of business will undoubtedly have huge ramifications on the upcoming campaign, and very possibly the destination of the 2025–26 Premier League title.
Liverpool have set a new record for the most spent by a Premier League club in a single window as they attempt to defend their crown, but Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City have all been bolstering their squads with expensive additions, too.
The Opta supercomputer has now predicted who will clinch the Premier League title this season following an insane summer of spending.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Winner
Unsurprisingly, Liverpool are still regarded as favourites for top spot. The Reds have spent a division record £446 million on an array of stars, twice breaking their club record and adding Alexander Isak on deadline day for a Premier League high £125 million transfer fee. Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitiké, Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez are among the arrivals as Arne Slot aims to build an all-conquering team.
Teamed with their perfect start to the Premier League season and their recent victory over last season’s runners-up Arsenal, Liverpool are given a healthy 50.66% chance of winning a second successive title. They are the only side to have won their opening three matches and were already considered sizeable favourites before a ball was kicked.
Arsenal have also been splashing the cash and actually have the highest net spend having failed to recoup significant funds through player sales over the summer. The Gunners spent £225 million—approximately half the sum of Liverpool—and had an impressive window, signing Viktor Gyökeres, Martín Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze and Piero Hincapié.
However, they already finished ten points behind Liverpool last season and have finished in second place for the last three terms, with Mikel Arteta struggling to inch his side across the finishing line. They will undoubtedly push for the title again this season but the supercomputer gives them only a 23.51% chance of usurping Liverpool at the summit.
Following their FIFA Club World Cup triumph, many expect Chelsea to make a beeline for the title, and the Blues have managed seven points from their opening three matches. Despite spending £285 million on new recruits this summer, they have actually finished with a positive net spend following £288 million worth of sales.
The likes of João Pedro, Jamie Gittens and Alejandro Garnacho are expected to improve Chelsea’s attacking play—which was at times an issue last season—but they are given just a 9.71% chance of becoming English champions.
Manchester City’s drastic fall from grace was unexpected last season and the new campaign hasn’t seen them turn the corner. Successive defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton & Hove Albion mean they’re already six points behind table toppers Liverpool, unsurprisingly impacting their title odds. The Cityzens are handed a mere 6.42% chance of winning a ninth Premier League title this season.
Twelve clubs are given a less than one per cent chance of winning the title, including the likes of Tottenham and Manchester United, but Crystal Palace (3.3%) and Newcastle United (1.68%) are given slightly higher odds. The Eagles have managed five points from their opening matches and remain unbeaten, while the Magpies are still awaiting their first win but have reinvested heavily with the money from Isak’s sale.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Winner After Summer Transfer Window.
