The start of the 2026–27 Premier League season is right around the corner, with Arsenal kicking off the defense of their title with a visit from newly promoted Coventry City on Friday.
There is a bucketload of change in England’s top flight this year. No fewer than nine new managers are settling into dugouts up and down the country, including three of the traditional Big Six, while the three promoted teams only add to the intrigue heading into the new campaign.
The Opta supercomputer has been whirring its cogs as Friday’s game inches closer, giving a final verdict on which team is most likely to get their hands on the trophy when the dust settles next May.
Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Premier League Title Race
| Position | Club | Expected Points | Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Arsenal | 73.45 | 40.62% |
| 2. | Man City | 67.01 | 19.60% |
| 3. | Liverpool | 61.49 | 9.16% |
Since the Community Shield and the comprehensive nature of their victory, Arsenal have actually seen their chances of retaining the title increase marginally, although that could be equally down to a loss of faith in Manchester City’s chances of competing under Enzo Maresca.
A predicted gap of six points means there should be no final-day title race this season, and it seems unlikely that we’ll get anything more than a two-horse race.
Backed to finish third are Liverpool in their first season under Andoni Iraola, but the supercomputer expects a gap of 12 points between the Reds and eventual winners Arsenal.
Liverpool’s chances of winning are the third-highest in the league but sit at just 9.16%.
Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Champions League Qualification Race
| Position | Club | Expected Points | Qualification Chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4. | Man Utd | 59.03 | 32.98% |
| 5. | Aston Villa | 56.70 | 26.37% |
| 6. | Chelsea | 55.73 | 23.71% |
| 7. | Newcastle | 53.62 | 18.92% |
| 8. | Tottenham | 53.02 | 17.40% |
| 9. | Brighton | 52.10 | 15.52% |
| 10. | Bournemouth | 50.87 | 13.52% |
Just which positions will qualify for European competition this coming season have not been decided, with England hoping to hold on to the extra Champions League spot through the impressive performance of all its teams across the three competitions.
Manchester United may not need to worry about any of that, backed to finish fourth in a full season under permanent manager Michael Carrick. Behind them, Aston Villa are backed to edge Chelsea and secure what could be a fifth spot in the Champions League.
Finishing sixth would see Chelsea return to the Europa League, where they could be joined by Newcastle United. That being said, Tottenham Hotspur will hope the reward for their record-breaking transfer plans is better than a predicted eighth-place finish.
Brighton & Hove Albion and Bournemouth may have to settle for a battle to qualify for the Conference League.
Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Premier League Relegation Race
| Position | Club | Expected Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. | Everton | 50.29 | 13.72% |
| 12. | Brentford | 48.86 | 16.62% |
| 13. | Nott’m Forest | 48.08 | 18.42% |
| 14. | Crystal Palace | 47.54 | 19.63% |
| 15. | Leeds | 46.67 | 21.94% |
| 16. | Fulham | 45.70 | 23.94% |
| 17. | Sunderland | 45.35 | 25.70% |
| 18. | Coventry | 44.48 | 27.88% |
| 19. | Ipswich | 43.58 | 30.80% |
| 20. | Hull | 40.18 | 42.25% |
Forty points is usually seen as the threshold for safety in the Premier League. This year, all 20 teams are expected to hit that mark.
Mid-table obscurity awaits Everton, Brentford, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace—all four teams have relegation odds of below 20%—but a total of seven teams could be dragged into what would be an enthralling battle against the drop.
Leeds United and Fulham are expected to have enough to survive—just about—but Sunderland are backed for a horrible drop-off. Having finished seventh last season and qualifying for the Europa League, the Black Cats are expected to end up 17th this time around.
Unfortunately for the newly promoted trio, the supercomputer expects immediate returns to the EFL Championship for each of them. Coventry and Ipswich are seemingly best-placed to compete for survival but, with relegation odds of 42.25%, playoff winners Hull City will be under no illusion as to the size of the mountain in front of them.
