Had a few balls bounced differently, Tottenham Hotspur could already be safe. Don’t concede that stoppage-time equalizer to Brighton & Hove Albion and convince Mathys Tel to refrain from attempting an overhead kick in his own penalty box and Spurs would be out of West Ham United’s reach.
But that’s not how it went.
Georginio Rutter did score in the 95th minute of Roberto De Zerbi’s first home game and Tel did swiftly cancel out his crisp opener against Leeds United on Monday night with a bizarre penalty concession leapt upon by Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Fortunately for Spurs, West Ham have endured their own fine-margin fumbles. The dramatic defeat to Arsenal on Sunday ensured that the Premier League relegation battle has been reduced to a straight shootout between these two capital foes. With just a pair of matches remaining, Opta’s supercomputer has offered up its best guess at the outcome of this duel.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Final Premier League Standings
| Predicted Position | Team | Actual Points | Predicted Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17. | Tottenham | 38 | 40.47 | 19.54% |
| 18. | West Ham | 36 | 38.62 | 80.46% |
| 19. | Burnley (R) | 21 | 22.78 | 100% |
| 20. | Wolves (R) | 18 | 20.41 | 100% |
“It’s going to be tough,” Nuno Espírito Santo admitted when reflecting on West Ham’s chances of survival after Sunday’s bitter reverse against Arsenal. Tough, but not yet impossible. The Hammers are given an 80.46% chance of relegation by Opta’s supercomputer, tumbling out of the division in four out of five scenarios.
Spurs are considerable favorites to keep their head above water but only two points are expected to separate the two sides, theoretically taking this relegation battle down to the final day. De Zerbi would expect nothing less: “It will be tough until the last minute against Everton,” he warned after getting a firm grasp of just how mentally fragile his roster is.
Tottenham could technically wrap it up before that final Sunday in May. Should West Ham fail to defeat Newcastle United at St. James’ Park this weekend, Spurs would mathematically guarantee their survival with a win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday, May 19.
West Ham, Tottenham’s Remaining Fixtures
| West Ham | Tottenham |
|---|---|
| Newcastle (A) – May 17 | Chelsea (A) – May 19 |
| Leeds (H) – May 24 | Everton (H) – May 24 |
As wretched as Chelsea have been recently, it would be incredibly surprising to see them roll over against their fierce London rivals on home turf. Spurs have recorded just one win at Stamford Bridge in the last 36 years. Danny Drinkwater was on the Chelsea roster which last lost a home game to Tottenham on April Fool’s Day 2018.
If De Zerbi is correct in his assumption that this race against relegation will come down to the final round of fixtures, Spurs can take comfort from their record against Everton. The Toffees have lost their last four trips to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium by an aggregate score of 9–1.
West Ham host Leeds at the same time on Sunday, May 24. Daniel Farke’s side proved on Monday that they won’t necessarily have their feet up for the rest of the season—De Zerbi is certainly hoping so. “Congratulations to Leeds,” the Italian boss tactfully mused, “they played a great game, they have to play the last game at West Ham and we’ve no doubt that they will play the same way.”
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Relegation Battle After Tottenham, West Ham Stumble.
