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Manchester Evening News
Manchester Evening News
Sport
Liam Wood

Supercomputer predicts Manchester United and Arsenal chances of winning Europa League

Manchester United have at least one foot in the Europa League final after hitting Roma for six on Thursday night.

With a place in next month's Gdansk showpiece at stake, United are firmly in the driving seat ahead of next week's return leg.

Portuguese playmaker Bruno Fernandes put Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side ahead inside ten minutes at Old Trafford.

But the hosts were made to work for an eye-catching win which has boosted their hopes of winning a first trophy under Solskjaer this season.

Roma initially hit back to lead 2-1 at half-time courtesy of goals from captain Lorenzo Pellegrini and ex- Manchester City striker Edin Dzeko, with the first of those strikes coming from the penalty spot.

However, it was one-way traffic upon the restart as Edinson Cavani scored twice before further goals from Bruno Fernandes, Paul Pogba and Mason Greenwood.

In the other semi-final clash, meanwhile, Spanish side Villarreal held off a comeback from Arsenal to lead 2-1 ahead of their return leg at the Emirates Stadium.

But what are United's chances of winning the competition next month?

According to the renowned FiveThirtyEight supercomputer, such a landslide victory for Solskjaer's team last night means they now have a greater than 99 per cent shot of reaching the final in Poland.

The likelihood of United winning the Europa League stands at 62 per cent.

By way of contrast, wounded semi-final opponents Roma have been handed a less than 1 per cent chance of being able to turn their last-four clash around and, ultimately, lift the trophy at the Gdansk Stadium on May 26.

As things stand, Villarreal are rated at 62 per cent to reach the showpiece - and 22 per cent to win it outright.

Offered hope by a late Nicolas Pepe penalty, Arsenal are third favourites for the supplementary competition.

Indeed, the supercomputer gives them a 38 per cent chance of joining Premier League rivals United in Poland - but they only boast a 15 per cent likelihood of edging out the other three clubs involved.

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How does the supercomputer work?

FiveThirtyEight uses SPI ratings, which have an attacking and defensive component in order to determine which team is going to win a specific game.

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