The 1954 World Cup-winning German manager Sepp Herberger repeatedly leaned upon the simple line: “The ball is round.”
Those four words capture the myriad of intricacies which litter this wonderful and devilishly unpredictable game. There is always going to be an inherent sense of randomness involved in a sport played with a round ball exclusively controlled by an instrument as blunt as the human foot.
The shape of the ball has not changed in the seven decades since Herberger’s peak, but the sophistication of analysis predicting what could happen to that slippery orb has certainly improved.
Drawing upon an unrivalled wealth of historical data, Opta have created a hub of player-specific predictions for each game across the upcoming round of Premier League fixtures. Everything from the number of shots to the likelihood of a yellow card is tallied, as well as the most important aspect of the sport: who is going to score.
* Only senior players likely to start have been included.
Liverpool vs. Everton
No computer has to be that super to churn out the opinion that Mohamed Salah is likely to score against Everton. Liverpool’s talisman boasts eight goals from 13 Merseyside derbies, a haul only four players in the 131-year history of the fixture can better.
As Arne Slot pointed out heading into the Saturday lunchtime kickoff, Salah has made a habit of scoring this season despite not playing very well. In an ominous sign for Everton, the Egypt international found the net in a far more well-rounded display against Atlético Madrid in midweek.
Intriguingly, Hugo Ekitiké is deemed to be slightly more likely to score on Saturday than record-signing Alexander Isak. All predictions are made on the assumption that a player has started the fixture in question but considering Isak was given his first 60 minutes of the season on Wednesday night, Slot may very well give Ekitiké the nod at Anfield.
Everton’s most likely goalscorer is Beto, although any goal for the visitors this weekend would be a bonus for David Moyes. The Scottish boss hasn’t seen one of his Everton players find the net in a Premier League fixture at Anfield since Jermaine Beckford nabbed one in January 2011.
Brighton vs. Tottenham
Tottenham have been solid if unspectacular going forward thus far under Thomas Frank. Unless Brighton & Hove Albion goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen fancies throwing the ball in his own net like Villarreal’s hapless Luiz Júnior, the Seagulls appear to boast the most likely scorers. A strike for former Arsenal forward Danny Welbeck would offer an added layer of pain to the travelling Spurs fanbase.
Burnley vs. Nottingham Forest
One figure stands out above the rest in this clash at Turf Moor. Chris Wood’s impressive goal record may fly under the radar for most, but Opta’s supercomputer is clearly a fan. Burnley will be well aware of the threat posed by a player who amassed 49 Premier League goals in 144 appearances for the Clarets.
West Ham vs. Crystal Palace
The season is barely four weeks old but Jean-Philippe Mateta has already manager to score in three different competitions. Another goal in the Premier League could be on the cards for the figure who haunts the nightmares of corner flags up and down the country.
Wolves vs. Leeds
This is a question of who is most likely to score, rather than a guarantee of any goals. Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United have mustered just three between them across six games this term—as many as Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo has managed on his own. Should the net be rippled at some point on Saturday afternoon at Molineux, Leeds’ Lukas Nmecha is deemed as likely a goalscorer as any of Wolves’ underwhelming forward options.
Man Utd vs. Chelsea
Somehow, Manchester United have conspired to rack up the most shots of any Premier League team this season. Yet, all those efforts have produced just two goals—one of which was a Bruno Fernandes penalty. As Ruben Amorim lamented: “We need to be more clinical.”
Despite that insightful takeaway, Amorim struck a largely positive tone ahead of Chelsea’s visit to Old Trafford on Saturday. Opta’s supercomputer appears to be similarly upbeat when it comes to the chances of Benjamin Šeško scoring his first goal for the club.
Cole Palmer, who grew up as a Manchester United fan, has been tipped to add to his impressive tally of four goals in five games against the Red Devils, while his teammates João Pedro and Estêvão could also get on the scoresheet.
Fulham vs. Brentford
Fulham’s only Premier League win of the season came courtesy of an outrageous own goal from Leeds United’s Gabriel Gudmundsson, who headed the ball past his own keeper last weekend with such confidence it appeared completely intentional on first glance. If Rodrigo Muniz or Raúl Jiménez offer even a fraction of the same aerial competency at Craven Cottage this Saturday night, they too could find the net.
Bournemouth vs. Newcastle
Five of the six Premier League goals Bournemouth have scored this season have either been plundered or created by Antoine Semenyo. Another on the south coast this weekend would hardly be a surprise.
Sunderland vs. Aston Villa
Harvey Elliott ended Aston Villa’s 400-minute wait for a goal this season in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday night and could potentially find the net in the Premier League this weekend as well. Last season’s top scorer Ollie Watkins is a better bet, but given Villa’s desperate struggles in front of goal, one of Sunderland’s contingent may prove to be a wiser option.
Arsenal vs. Man City
It would almost be a surprise at this point if Erling Haaland didn’t score. The ruthless finisher chasing down records set by Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo boasts 12 goals in seven outings for club and country this season.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Goalscorer for Every Premier League Game: Matchday 5.
