With only one matchday remaining in the 2025–26 Champions League league phase, a clear picture of the knockout stage is coming into focus as 36 teams all vie to avoid elimination.
After a brief winter break, action resumed in Europe’s premier club competition three weeks into the new year. There was no shortage of drama in Matchday 7, with Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain suffering surprise defeats, while Atlético Madrid could only manage a draw with Galatasaray.
There were no dropped points for Arsenal, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Barcelona, who scored a combined 16 goals against their opponents. Italian giants Napoli and Inter could not say the same after stumbles in their Champions League matchups.
The results have shaken up an already ever-changing table, moving unexpected clubs into the top eight as several European giants fall below the automatic qualification threshold.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the final league phase standings to look following the competition’s penultimate matchday.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Top Eight Qualifying Teams
| Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 21 | 23.84 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 18 | 19.75 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 15 | 17.56 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 15 | 16.36 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 13 | 15.54 |
| 6 | Spurs | 14 | 15.44 |
| 7 | Man City | 13 | 15.29 |
| 8 | Atlético Madrid | 13 | 15.16 |
Once the final whistle sounds on Matchday 8, the top eight teams in the league phase standings will automatically advance to the round of 16, skipping the knockout phase playoffs. The teams are also guaranteed to play the second leg of their knockout match at home.
It comes as no surprise that Arsenal are Opta’s pick to finish atop the table. The Gunners have won all seven of their Champions League clashes and the supercomputer projects they will finish the league phase with a near-perfect 23.87 out of 24 points.
Right behind the Premier League leaders are Bayern Munich. Apart from their loss to Arsenal back in November, the defending Bundesliga champions have cruised through the league phase, with their latest victory coming against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise.
For all of their woes this season, Liverpool and Real Madrid are projected to finish third and fourth respectively. Both teams currently sit level on 15 points, having already done enough to quality for the knockout stage. Barring any massive slip-ups next week, they will also secure a bye.
Despite sitting above them in the La Liga standings, Barcelona are predicted to finish one place below their bitter rivals Real Madrid in the league phase table. Opta has the Catalans finishing with around 15 points, four less than the 19 they collected last season.
The surprise team in the top eight are Tottenham Hotspur. Even with massive pressure on the shoulders of Thomas Frank and his men, who sit 14th in the Premier League table, Spurs have a 49.93% chance of securing their place in the round of 16 thanks to only suffering one league phase defeat.
Manchester City and Atlético Madrid round out the supercomputer’s projected top eight. Both teams dropped points in Matchday 8 and currently are 11th and 12th respectively. Yet Opta rates the clubs’ chances of sneaking into the automatic qualification spots with around 15 points each.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Knockout Round Playoff Teams
| Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | PSG | 13 | 14.78 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 13 | 14.66 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 13 | 14.34 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 13 | 14.33 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 13 | 13.94 |
| 14 | Juventus | 12 | 13.54 |
| 15 | Inter | 12 | 13.25 |
| 16 | Dortmund | 11 | 12.45 |
| 17 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 10.82 |
| 18 | Galatasaray | 10 | 10.53 |
| 19 | Qarabağ | 10 | 10.32 |
| 20 | Marseille | 9 | 10.26 |
| 21 | Monaco | 9 | 10.19 |
| 22 | Olympiacos | 8 | 9.47 |
| 23 | Napoli | 8 | 9.38 |
| 24 | Athletic Club | 8 | 9.08 |
Teams that finish from ninth to 24th in the league phase standings will compete in the knockout phase playoffs, a two-legged tie where the winning eight teams will punch their tickets to the round of 16.
Off the back of their shock defeat to Sporting CP, defending European champions PSG are predicted to finish just outside the top eight with around 14.78 points. The Portuguese outfit is right behind them in 10th, with a projected 14.66 points.
Chelsea, Atalanta and Newcastle United—all currently level on 13 points with Man City, Atlético Madrid, PSG and Sporting—are the next three clubs Opta predicts will fall short of directly advancing to the round of 16. The Blues would have found themselves in a worse position had Moisés Caicedo not bagged a late winner against Pafos on Wednesday.
Juventus and Inter, meanwhile, are projected to finish 14th and 15th respectively. The latter, who made a run to the Champions League final last season, have particularly underwhelmed in the 2025–26 league phase, suffering defeats to Atlético Madrid, Liverpool and Arsenal, the three biggest teams they faced.
The supercomputer has Borussia Dortmund as the final seeded team, guaranteed to play the second leg of their playoff tie at home. The German outfit’s predicted 12.45 points are enough to give it the key advantage.
There is a two-point drop off from Dortmund to the next five clubs in Opta’s table. Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Qarabağ, Marseille and Monaco are all expected to finish with around 10 points and therefore will go into the knockout phase playoffs as unseeded teams.
Olympiacos are not far behind with around nine projected points. Despite the low number, the supercomputer gives them a 56.83% chance of staying within the playoff spots, with Napoli and Athletic Club rounding out the top 24.
The defending Italian champions have been shockingly poor on Europe’s grandest stage this season, winning just two of their seven matches. With a tough bout with Chelsea to close out their league phase schedule, Napoli have virtually no room for error if they want to sneak into the next stage of the competition.
Then there’s Athletic Club, who currently sit 23rd in the table. Opta, though, predicts the La Liga outfit will drop down one place after Ernesto Valverde’s men play their final league phase match against Sporting. Still, as long as they qualify, the Bilbao-based club will consider their league phase campaign a success.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Eliminated Teams
| Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | PSV | 8 | 9 |
| 26 | Club Brugge | 7 | 8.46 |
| 27 | Copenhagen | 8 | 8.33 |
| 28 | Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 7.38 |
| 29 | Benfica | 6 | 7.36 |
| 30 | Pafos | 6 | 7.34 |
| 31 | Ajax | 6 | 7.26 |
| 32 | Bodø/Glimt | 6 | 6.63 |
| 33 | Frankfurt | 4 | 5.29 |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 3 | 4.38 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 1 | 1.91 |
| 36 | Kairat | 1 | 1.11 |
The bottom 12 teams are close to making their Champions League exits. In fact, 33rd place Frankfurt, 34th place Slavia Prague, 35th place Villarreal and 36th place Kairat have all already been eliminated from the competition with one matchday left to go.
Opta also has Bodø/Glimt crashing out of the competition despite their 3–1 victory over Man City. The magical night in Norway, which was the hosts’ first win in the competition this season, is not expected to be enough to keep their knockout stage hopes alive.
Four clubs—Ajax, Pafos, Benfica and Royale Union Saint-Gilloise—are all projected to finish the league phase with around seven points, keeping them out of the running for the knockout phase playoffs. Despite Copenhagen edging out the aforementioned teams in 27th place, they still only have a projected 11.14% chance of playing a two-legged tie.
Club Brugge got back to winning ways in the Champions League with a 4–1 defeat over Kairat on Tuesday evening, but loses to Arsenal, Sporting, Bayern Munich and Atalanta over the past four months sealed their fate. The supercomputer does not see the Belgian outfit miraculously finishing in the top 24.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Final 2025–26 Champions League Table With One Matchday Left.
