Sixteen teams became eight over the past week as we now look ahead to the quarterfinals of the 2026 World Cup.
The three co-hosts—the United States, Canada and Mexico—all bid farewell in the round of 16, in which Portugal and Brazil both headed home as well. The stakes are high and the pressure is on, with one poor performance enough to end any team’s dream in an instant.
As we head into the quarterfinals, the Opta supercomper has taken a look at the likeliest winner when the dust settles on July 19.
Supercomputer Predicts World Cup Quarterfinals
Of the eight teams still left in the tournament, France has been given the biggest chance of reaching the semifinals.
Les Bleus are given odds of 73.09% of seeing off Morocco and booking a place in the final four, marginally ahead of Argentina (70.72%).
Spain (69.51%) is backed to beat Belgium fairly comfortably, while England is just about the favorite in its tough duel with Erling Haaland’s Norway, offered a 62.76% chance of making it through to the final four.
| Fixture | Most Likely Winner |
|---|---|
| France vs. Morocco | France (73.09%) |
| Spain vs. Belgium | Spain (69.51%) |
| Norway vs. England | England (62.76%) |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland | Argentina (70.72%) |
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Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner
Few would argue with the assessment that France looks like the strongest candidate to lift the trophy on July 19.
Didier Deschamps’s side has looked imperious thus far, knowing when to turn on the flair and when to keep it ugly, and odds of 26.91% prove France is the comfortable favorite of the eight teams left in the tournament.
Argentina was second in the supercomputer’s eyes after the round of 32, but the events of the round of 16 appear to have changed things. Odds of 17.38% means Lionel Scaloni’s side has tumbled behind Spain (21.30%). France vs. Spain is a possible semifinal tie.
On the other side of the bracket, Argentina does see off England, although odds of 16.99% shows just how fine the margins are at this late stage of the tournament.
If we are going to have a major upset, the supercomputer feels strongest about Norway, although with just a 6.56% chance of winning the whole thing, it seems like it will remain a four-horse race.
| Nations | Chance of Winning the World Cup |
|---|---|
| France | 26.91% |
| Spain | 21.30% |
| Argentina | 17.38% |
| England | 16.99% |
| Norway | 6.56% |
| Morocco | 3.92% |
| Belgium | 3.70% |
| Switzerland | 3.24% |
