The 2025–26 Premier League table underwent a massive shakeup following the November international window, with Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United all suffering defeats in Gameweek 12.
Four of the ‘Big Six’ in the English top-flight failed to secure a victory in their returns to domestic action. Man City saw their four-game winning streak dashed by a Harvey Barnes brace at St. James’ Park, falling 2–1 to Newcastle United.
Liverpool also collected zero points this weekend, losing 3–0 to Nottingham Forest at Anfield. The defending Premier League champions have now won just one of their last seven league matches, leaving the door open for Arsenal to continue their charge atop the standings after a dominant 4–1 victory over Spurs.
Man Utd were hoping to emulate the winning ways of the Gunners and Chelsea—the Blues dispatched Burnley 2–0 on Saturday—but the Red Devils suffered a 1–0 defeat to an undermanned Everton side. They sit 10th in the table after 12 games.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Premier League title race to pan out after the four major slip ups.
Supercomputer’s Predicted 2025–26 Premier League Table
Premier League Title Race
Arsenal remain Opta’s pick to win the league, with the Gunners given an emphatic 76.65% chance of ending their Premier League title drought. Mikel Arteta’s men are projected to earn around 81 points, 10 more than predicted runners-up Man City.
Although finishing in second would be a step up from last season’s third-place finish, the Cityzens will have made no improvement points-wise despite spending £179.4 million ($235.1 million) this summer. There was a glimmer of hope Man City could claw their way back into the title race, but this weekend’s defeat slashed their chances of league glory to just 13.64%.
The big change in Opta’s predictions comes with the third club still alive in the fight for the English crown: Chelsea. The Blues have officially usurped Liverpool and are expected to end the season in third place, which would be the club’s highest finish since the 2021–22 campaign.
Still, if Enzo Maresca’s side only secures around 65 points as predicted, they will be disappointed to collect four less points than they did last season, especially given their Club World Cup triumph over the summer.
Champions League Spots
Outside of the title race, several clubs are battling to finish in the Champions League places. It is likely that the top five teams in the Premier League will secure a spot in UEFA’s premier club competition.
Despite Liverpool’s woes so far in 2025–26, the Reds are still expected to play Champions League football next season. Opta has Arne Slot’s side finishing fourth with around 64 points, the club’s lowest haul since 2015–16, when it finished eighth.
Any further blunders for the defending champions, though, could see Aston Villa or Crystal Palace leapfrog them in the standings. Both clubs are projected to finish just a few points behind Liverpool as it stands, which could spell disaster for the Reds’ Champions League hopes.
Next up are Brighton, Newcastle and Bournemouth. Despite all avoiding defeat this weekend, they still have a lot of work to do if they want to crack Opta’s top five. The likelier option will likely see the three clubs battle to finish in the Europa League places.
Rounding out the top 10 is Man Utd. The Red Devils are currently level on points with Liverpool and two places ahead of them in the standings due to goal differential. Yet Opta still has Ruben Amorim’s men finishing six places below the 20-time league champions, out of European contention.
The good news for Man Utd supporters is that the club is projected to finish the season with around 55 points, 13 more than they managed in 2024–25.
Still, as Sir Alex Ferguson recently put it, “At United you need to have success,” and 10th place is far from it.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Table: Can Man Utd Finish Above Liverpool?.
