While the Premier League’s top two are off fighting for the Carabao Cup, those behind them have been trying to boost their chances of a top-four finish and sneaking into next season’s Champions League.
Manchester United got things underway on Friday, with both Liverpool and Chelsea in action on Saturday. None of the European hopefuls ended up winning.
United were held to a 2–2 draw with Bournemouth in controversial circumstances, before Liverpool fell 2–1 to Brighton & Hove Albion and Chelsea were humiliated by the blue side of Merseyside, coming away from the Hill Dickinson Stadium with a 3–0 defeat to Everton.
Here’s how the Opta supercomputer sees those results impacting the race for European qualification.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Winner
| Position | Club | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Arsenal | 70 | 84.80 | 97.77% |
| 2. | Man City | 61 | 74.47 | 2.23% |
The statisticians are still not looking past Arsenal to go on and win the title at the end of the season.
The Gunners hold a huge lead over Manchester City and will hope to deal a psychological blow to their title rivals in Sunday’s Carabao Cup final, which comes just three weeks before the two giants face off in a Premier League clash that could dictate the destination of the trophy.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race
Man Utd’s slip-up against Bournemouth was tough to swallow for the Red Devils, but in the grand scheme of things, they still had a better weekend than both Liverpool and Chelsea. Michael Carrick’s side are still in an imposing position with seven games left to play.
Aston Villa are also heavy favorites to take the final spot in the top four, boosted by the struggles of the teams behind them. Unai Emery’s side may have dropped off in 2026 but they appear to have done most of the hard work early in the campaign.
Heading down to fifth, England’s strong UEFA coefficient is excellent news for Liverpool, who were not punished for their bleak defeat away at Brighton on Saturday. Arne Slot’s side should still have enough about them to squeeze into the Champions League.
| Position | Club | Current Points | Expected Points | Champions League Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. | Man Utd | 55 | 66.09 | 86.25% |
| 4. | Aston Villa | 51 | 64.13 | 66.68% |
| 5. | Liverpool | 49 | 60.53 | 27.33% |
| 6. | Chelsea | 48 | 58.63 | 13.39% |
| 7. | Brentford | 45 | 56.09 | 3.64% |
| 8. | Everton | 46 | 54.96 | 1.37% |
| 9. | Newcastle | 42 | 54.12 | 0.73% |
| 10. | Brighton | 43 | 53.48 | 0.53% |
Chelsea, meanwhile, are in freefall.
Liam Rosenior’s side have an incredibly tough run of fixtures ahead and face an uphill battle to even reach fifth, let alone the top four. The supercomputer sees the Blues in the Europa League next season.
Brentford, Everton, Newcastle United and Brighton are all locked in the battle for the Conference League as it stands.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle
| Position | Club | Current Points | Expected Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16. | Tottenham | 30 | 40.63 | 12.67% |
| 17. | Nott’m Forest | 29 | 38.58 | 32.11% |
| 18. | West Ham | 29 | 37.73 | 48.44% |
| 19. | Burnley | 20 | 26.34 | 99.90% |
| 20. | Wolves | 17 | 24.94 | 99.94% |
Sunday’s meeting between Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest promises to be a fascinating one.
Both sides are tipped to survive the drop, but the loser of Sunday’s fixture will face a tough international break, left sweating over their fate in England’s top flight. West Ham United are backed to take the third and final relegation spot, just one point adrift from safety.
Burnley’s miserable defeat away at Fulham on Saturday has hardly changed anything down at the very bottom of the standings. The Clarets are resigned to relegation alongside Wolverhampton Wanderers, and the two sides are now in a race to avoid finishing last.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Table After Shock Liverpool, Chelsea Defeats.
