Shared points in the London derby keeps the 2025–26 Premier League title race very much alive, especially with Manchester City making up ground on Arsenal and Chelsea in Gameweek 13.
What could have been the start of Arsenal’s runaway charge for the English crown suddenly sees the Gunners under threat atop the table. Mikel Arteta’s men only managed a 1–1 draw with the Blues, who were down to 10 men for 52 minutes, at Stamford Bridge on Sunday evening.
Chelsea would have loved to claim a statement victory to come within striking distance of the league-leaders, but Moisés Caicedo’s red card made a draw for Enzo Maresca’s side the best outcome given the circumstances.
Man City, meanwhile, secured three points in a 3–2 victory over Leeds United thanks to a last-gasp winner from Phil Foden. No matter how unconvincing the win was, the Cityzens are now back in the fight for the Premier League title.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Premier League title race to pan out after the two major results this weekend.
Supercomputer’s Predicted 2025–26 Premier League Table
Premier League Title Race
Despite their stumble against Chelsea, Arsenal are still Opta’s pick to win the league with a resounding 79.14% chance. Although the Gunners currently sit just five points ahead of Man City after Gameweek 13, they are projected to finish with an 11-point gap atop the table.
Claiming the league with 81 points would see Arteta’s men match Leicester City’s haul from the 2015–16 season, which was the fifth fewest points collected by a Premier League winner of all time.
Arsenal will not care about the unwanted history so long as they end their 21-year Premier League title drought. Man City will hope to thwart any celebrations at the Emirates, but Opta only gives the Cityzens an 11.30% chance of snagging the English crown this season.
Should Pep Guardiola’s side only record their expected 70 points, it will finish as the runners-up, with the fewest points to its name since Arsenal did so with the same total in 2000–01.
Chelsea, meanwhile, remain Opta’s choice to finish in third place, with Liverpool below them in fourth place. The Blues must settle for Champions League qualification as opposed to raising silverware come May.
Champions League Spots
While the top three clubs in the Premier League fight for the English crown, a handful of teams are battling to finish in the Champions League places. The top five teams are likely to secure a spot in UEFA’s premier club competition next season.
Liverpool’s 1–0 victory over West Ham United was enough for Opta to predict a fourth place finish for the Reds. Only earning around 63 points in a title defence is a nightmare sophomore season on the touchline for Arne Slot, but the Dutchman can claim Champions League football as a small consolation.
There is little room for error, though, with Aston Villa also projected to finish with around 63 points. Plus, Brighton and Crystal Palace are not far behind. The congested fight between the clubs in fourth through seventh place could see a few shock results have European implications as the season unfolds.
Newcastle United are a surprise pick to finish eighth, given the Magpies are currently in 13th place. Opta back Eddie Howe and his men to get back into the top half of the table and finish with around 58 points, the same amount as the Eagles.
Man Utd jumped into ninth place in the projected table after their 2–1 comeback victory over Crystal Palace, followed by Brentford to round out the top 10. The Red Devils will have to wait for a return to the Champions League, per Opta, but they are slowly climbing their way up the Premier League standings in an effort to erase their 15th-place finish from last season.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Table After Arsenal’s London Derby Blunder.
