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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
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Tom McCarthy in New York

Super Tuesday: Trump and Clinton win big but rivals score victories – as it happened

Interactive
Super Tuesday results

Super Tuesday’s winners and losers (in one minute)

Summary

Super Tuesday is over – notwithstanding a lot of delegate math left to be done and that tardy Alaska caucuses result (with 22.2% reporting, Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz 35.9%-33.1%). Here’s what we learned:

  • Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee ... yet.
  • Nevertheless, it was a big night for the New York billionaire, and for Hillary Clinton. They won seven states each, picked up armloads of delegates and advanced their respective claims on their parties’ presidential nominations.
  • It’s not over yet – on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders’s four state victories keep the race alive, and on the Republican side Ted Cruz’s big win in Texas and second win in Oklahoma do the same.
  • Florida senator Marco Rubio had a tough night. He won only one state - Minnesota – and fell short of the 20% minimum needed to earn delegates in Texas, Alabama and Vermont. He appeared to fall 100+ delegates behind Cruz.
  • Rubio vowed to fight on, telling supporters the race was in its early stages and he would start to clean up later this month.
  • Our comprehensive results page is here. (This isn’t something we learned tonight but this seems like a good place to mention it.)
  • Clinton profited from giant 60- to 80-point margins among African American voters across the South.
  • What about Ben Carson and John Kasich? Kasich came in second in Vermont. Carson was in contention nowhere. Kasich called on Rubio to drop out and Carson said: “I will remain.”
  • The races could resolve dramatically in the next two weeks. Nine states host contests between now and 15 March, when the contests suddenly become winner-take-all and crucial states vote including Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.
  • As for color, there was a strange Trump victory-rally-slash-press-conference that ran interminably. What made it strange was New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who endorsed Trump last Friday, introduced Trump and then stood behind him the whole time. But the look on Christie’s face was one of doom. The internet noticed.

Updated

Just after the polls closed in Alaska, Sam Moore, 31, arrived at the Lofts hotel in Anchorage where a small group of Republicans were gathering to watch results come in. He was holding a Marco Rubio sign.

“It’s a marathon not a sprint, I think he still has a chance,” he said. “We can’t let Trump win the nomination.”

In the bar, Cary Taylor, 47, and friends watched national news reporting big wins for Trump. Alaska’s poll results were still hours away, but many expected a similar result.

Taylor supports Trump, he said, because he feels he can “bring back common sense to American government.” He feels good about Trump’s progress.

“What I’m seeing in America is someone who, love ‘em or hate ‘em, at least has actually performed in the market, has actually proven himself.”

The results so far (10% in) show Trump ahead in Alaska with 34.2% of the vote.

Updated

The big takeaway from tonight? A presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump looks even more likely, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi:

That’s because both candidates finished Super Tuesday by making big gains in their delegate count numbers. Final delegate numbers are still being calculated but at the time of writing, Clinton added 436 delegates to her running total (putting her at 527 delegates compared to Bernie Sanders’ 325) and Trump gained an extra 186 delegates (giving him a total of 268 so far compared to Cruz’s 142).

Even though delegates are what really matters (and those are often dependent on vote share) the simple fact of coming first can matter too. Just ask Bernie Sanders - the Senator won in four states even though some expectations had him winning only Vermont, his home state. Although he still has an uphill struggle to get the 2,382 delegates needed to become the Democratic nominee, Sanders might now be perceived as more of a viable candidate among voters.

The race goes on.

Updated

Rubio appears to have fallen short in key 20% cutoff states...

While Cruz appears to have sewn up Texas. That would account for part of the 100-some delegate split that appears to have emerged between them.

Sanders beat Clinton in Oklahoma – where the former secretary state defeated Barack Obama in the 2008 primary.

She’s getting worse at Oklahoma, it appears:

oklahoma

Trump's lead: about 21% of delegates he needs

How’s the overall delegate haul this evening shaking out? Cook Political report seesTrump with at least 262 total, of the 1,237 needed to win the nomination, and the AP sees Trump with at least 257.

Cook sees a big gap opening between Cruz and Rubio...

While the Associated Press counts a significant haul for Trump this Super Tuesday and a lesser haul for Cruz:

With results still coming in, Trump had won at least 139 Super Tuesday delegates, while Cruz picked up at least 52. Overall, Trump led with 257 delegates, Cruz 106, Rubio 67. It takes 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination for president.

On the Democratic side, Clinton was assured of winning at least 441 of the 865 delegates at stake on Super Tuesday. Sanders was sure to get at least 262. Including superdelegates, Clinton had at least 989 delegates. Sanders had at least 349. It takes 2,383 Democratic delegates to win.

Clinton has won at least 10 states since the nomination contests began, with Sanders victorious in at least five.

Among Democrats, Trump has won at least nine states, with three for Cruz and one for Rubio.

Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts has been following the Bernie Sanders campaign since May and has clocked some 60 campaign events:

Carson: 'I will remain'

Carson, whom voters in most states have just resoundingly counted out, has released a statement to supporters saying: “I am not moved or discouraged when the political class count me out”:

As long we continue to receive their support, and the Lord keeps opening doors, I will remain in this presidential race. The stakes are too high to willingly hand our country over once again to the pundits and the political class. I truly believe in America and the potential to return to the values on which this country was founded.

Ben Carson speaks during an election night party in Baltimore.
Ben Carson speaks during an election night party in Baltimore. Photograph: Jose Luis Magana/AP

Updated

Rubio denied statewide delegates in Alabama

Ouch. Of Alabama’s 50 delegates, 26 are statewide and 21 are awarded per congressional district (the remaining three are free-floating).

Florida senator Marco Rubio may still clear the 20% threshold within a congressional district to access some delegates in Alabama. But he’s fallen short of 20% statewide:

A rundown of Rubio’s war on 20% elsewhere:

Trump wins Vermont

Make that seven states for Trump, with only Alaska outstanding. If Trump wins Alaska, the win tally for the evening would be Trump 8, Cruz 2 and Rubio 1.

Updated

Alaska polls to close

Alaska hosted Republican caucuses tonight and has 28 delegates to offer with a 13% threshold to qualify for delegates.

We’ll see if we get a quick call right at midnight ET.

Newt Gingrich agrees (and no surprise here?) with the blog: Trump’s news conference struck a notable – and favorable, from where we sit – contrast with the run-of-the-mill rah-rah rallies of the other candidates tonight:

(h/t: @bencjacobs)

As CNN called the Minnesota caucuses for Bernie Sanders at 10.30pm local time, the right-side room of The Local in downtown Minneapolis erupted in cheers and chants of “Bernie! Bernie!”, as staff, supporters and volunteers raised their arms and clinked their glasses.

Phil Khalar-Gibson, who spent the weekend criss-crossing Minneapolis educating people about the caucus process and handing out Sanders literature arrived exuberantly just moments before the call. “My precinct was crazy!” he shouted, pulling out sheets of numbers showing overwhelming caucus tallies in Sanders’ favor.

Ryan Flanders, who campaigned and caucused for Obama in 2008 and voted for Green party candidate Jill Stein in 2012, said his personal circumstances hadn’t allowed him to volunteer for Sanders despite his excitement, but that he showed up early at his caucus to help sign potential caucus goers in. “I want them to be able to have their voices heard”, he said.

And, if the results are any indication, many new caucus-goers’ voices were definitely heard.

First-time caucus goer and life-long Minnesota resident Simon Hardy said: “This is probably the first candidate I’ve really felt inspired by.”

His friend, Andrew Henley - who also caucused for the first time tonight - said he turned out for Sanders because “I saw a glimmer of what could be possible for my great-grandchildren, and felt a responsibility to participate beyond my personal motivation.”

Hardy plans to vote Democratic no matter who wins the party’s primaries: “The thought of a Führer Trump terrifies me,” he said.

Updated

Weird times at the official Arkansas Republican Party party at the Embassy Suites on — and this is really gilding the lily — Financial Services Drive in west Little Rock.

This has been a great night for the Arkansas Republican Party. Voter participation in the state has broken roughly 60-40 in their favor, marking easily the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans have voted in greater numbers than Democrats in these contests.

But the official state GOP party is the only party in town not run by Democrats. The Clinton people are whooping it up in the same way that a Division 5A high school whoops it up after beating a Division 1A team by 72 points at the homecoming game. The Sanders people are at a local brewery near the riverwalk. They deserve it. But as for the Republicans, no one — not Cruz, not Rubio, not Trump — had an actual official office here, the party planning, as does so many things with conservatism, devolves to the state.

The state GOP party isn’t in danger of going off the rails. It is glued to the rails. It is welded and nail-gunned to the rails.

Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson speaks, then finishes to a scatter of applause. For people having a historic night, there are no whoops, whistles or even a vaguely Stone Cold Steve Austin-esque HELL YEAH. If you weren’t paying attention to his speech, you might not have noticed it ended. There is a faintly funereal sense to his appearance. The governor has lost something close to him, and it is political capital.

Hutchinson broke from state party tradition and endorsed Rubio before the primary, and several state party leaders followed him. Perhaps that decision owed more to the primary being held unusually early, but all anyone will read into the act is another breached barricade in the stop Trump movement.

The screens with Fox News at the rear of the Embassy Suites restaurant — and the variegated Fox, CNN, MSNBC feeds on the screens on the right side — all show the same thing. Donald Trump is walking away with the party, and as soon as the results come in from here, it’s going to turn out he walked away with Arkansas too.

Updated

Rubio vs. 20%

Five states tonight deny delegates to any candidate who does not get at least 20% of the vote. Marco Rubio has hung right at the 20% mark in all five. Ending up just below the mark could make Rubio’s night significantly worse, in terms of picking up delegates (which is all that matters).

He’s looking good in Georgia. In Alabama and in Texas, the big delegate prize – not so much. Here’s how Rubio stands currently in the five states in question:

Alabama: 18.3% with 79.3% reporting.

Georgia: 23.8% with 87.9% reporting.

Tennessee: 20.8% with 95.1% reporting.

Texas: 17.3% with 52.2% reporting.

Vermont: 19.4% with 82.9% reporting.

Updated

Bernie Sanders scored a critical Super Tuesday victory against Hillary Clinton in Colorado, sparking celebrations across the liberal city of Denver as the Vermont senator struggled with significant losses in other states across the country.

Emily Rosa, a 23-year-old Denver voter - carrying a sign that read “Bernie: Championing LGBT rights before it was cool” - said it was exciting to see a female presidential candidate winning throughout the US, but noted that Sanders’ momentum felt more historic to her.

“It’s really awesome that a woman is doing so well, but at the same time, what Sanders is doing is really this grassroots movement,” said Rosa, an art director at a design firm. “He’s getting so many people out in the younger generation and that’s so cool.”

She added: “He’s showing that a politician can get this far without all that campaign money, and that message is really important and a historic one ... I feel like I’m contributing to something bigger than myself.”

Rosa was one of many pro-Sanders voters who crowded into a middle school cafeteria in Denver at a caucus that appeared to attract fewer Clinton supporters and dragged on for hours as organizers slowly signed in a bottleneck of registered Democrats.

Some elderly voters sat on the floor of the school cafeteria and gym, complaining that there were not enough chairs for those who needed them.

Colorado was a key battleground for Sanders after he failed to gain traction in South Carolina last month and lost other important southern states on Super Tuesday. Colorado has a large bloc of independent voters who are unaffiliated with either political party, and the Sanders campaign has worked on the ground to register new Democrats.

Dan Patrick, the lieutenant governor of Texas and active Cruz surrogate, told reporters that he thought Thursday’s Republican debate was a pivotal moment for voters. “Two of the candidates on stage looked like they were auditioning to be gameshow hosts and the third looked presidential.”

He thought voters would coalesce around Ted Cruz because “they want to be with winners”. Patrick argued that Marco Rubio should drop out after his poor night, “the question the media should ask Marco Rubio is: why are you staying in this race after tonight?”

Let’s check in on Vermont, aka the Republican nailbiter™.

Vermont represents the smallest pot of delegates for Republicans tonight with only 16 to give. But a win there for John Kasich, who is currently running just behind Trump, would carry bragging rights beyond delegate weight.

With 81.8% reporting, Trump stands at 32.4%, Kasich stands at 30.7% and Rubio stands at 19.4%.

Visit our comprehensive results page to stay abreast of all the latest returns:

Clinton takes Massachusetts

The delegate split should be narrow, given the closeness of the Democratic race in Massachusetts. But Clinton can claim her seventh and final win of the night – a fine Super Tuesday performance that does not cinch the nomination but that positions her well to do so.

Have you ever made a decision you regret? But had to stand by it?

Chris Christie has!

He decided to endorse Donald Trump. And now he’s stuck having to stand behind him while he talks about all the things Donald Trump talks about. Building walls. Marco Rubio being sweaty. Mexicans. Etc.

For most of us, that that internal thought of: “What on god’s earth have I done?” might be limited to ordering a terrible beer, knowing you have to drink the whole pint, or discussing politics with some evangelical Christians, or accidentally killing a cat you were supposed to be looking after.

But unfortunately for Christie, his betraying facial expressions were made in public. And instantly became a thing among people on the internet.

If that wasn’t bad enough, six New Jersey newspapers have called on Christie to resign since he agreed to become Donald Trump’s stooge.

In a joint editorial, newspapers including the Ashbury Park Press and the Cherry Hill Courier-Post said the governor should resign because “we’re fed up with Gov. Chris Christie’s arrogance”.

“We’re fed up with his opportunism. We’re fed up with his hypocrisy,” the papers wrote in a joint editorial.

Sanders wins Minnesota

The AP projects a fourth win for Sanders.

That’s six so far tonight for Clinton, four for Sanders.

And Massachusetts, where Clinton holds a slim lead, is still out.

(Clinton won American Samoa too.)

Rubio finds a win: Minnesota

Amid an otherwise disappointing night, Marco Rubio scored big in Minnesota, where he has now been projected to win the caucuses. It’s Rubio’s first win of the 2016 race.

Feels great to win.
Feels great to win. Photograph: Alan Diaz/AP

Minnesota will award its 38 delegates proportionally with a 10% threshold. With 53% reporting, the race stood at Rubio with 37.3%, Trump with 28% and Trump at 21.1%.

Minnesota is also the first state in which Trump failed to place either first or second.

Updated

Sanders projected to win Colorado

That’s three for Sanders – Colorado, Oklahoma and Vermont.

Sanders backers at a Democratic precinct in Boulder, Colorado.
Sanders backers at a Democratic precinct in Boulder, Colorado. Photograph: Brennan Linsley/AP

Massachusetts and Minnesota have yet to be called on the Democratic side.

Minnesota and Vermont are the late trains on the Republican side.

And of course there’s the Republican voting in Alaska, where polls don’t close until 12am ET.

Updated

Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs flags some non-presidential-election news from this voting night:

Texas Representative Kevin Brady, the powerful chairman of the House Ways and Means committee, is facing a Tea Party primay challenge – and is currently under 50%.

If he doesn’t crack that mark, it goes to a runoff and that would become the next huge scalp for right wingers to try to claim.

Democratic Florida Representative Alan Grayson, a Sanders backer and Senate candidate, suggests that Trump capitalized in the South on support from the Ku Klux Klan, which Trump disavowed repeatedly tonight.

(h/t: @bencjacobs)

Updated

At a community center turned caucus site on the south side of the predominately African American neighborhood of North Minneapolis, there was already a line to vote at 6.35pm local time.

But while some voters cast their blue paper ballots and left, others took seats (and then overflow seats) to vote for individual delegates and local resolutions.

Shoshana Daniels, a volunteer with Neighborhoods Organizing for Change, got here early to talk to her fellow caucus-goers about the resolutions designed by NOC that she planned to proposed (one for educational justice and another to restore voting rights to felons released on parole or probation). The resolutions process is designed to help the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party, the local version of the Democratic party, determine on which issues to focus during the election season.

It is Daniels’s first caucus, although she is 33 and was born and raised in Minnesota. “I’m interested enough in supporting Bernie Sanders that I would’ve come to a primary, but I heard about the resolution process and decided to caucus,” she said.

Local issues, she said “are high stakes for me, because I plan to live here, because I will have black children here, because I brought a black partner here.”

But though the caucus site is in a predominantly African American neighborhood, the caucus goers were overwhelmingly white - likely, Daniels’ said, a result of the precinct’s proximity to a historically white neighborhood and gentrification moving north.

Still, the white convener (or precinct captain) wore a Black Lives Matter T-shirt and reiterated the DFL’s commitment to racial inclusion and encouraged people to vote in favor of delegates and precinct officials that represent the party’s inclusive values.

How is the Republican establishment handling tonight’s result?

It’s been a good night for home state wins …

You can see all the live updates, county-by-county in our one-stop shop for Super Tuesday results:

Updated

Carson blames the system.

Rubio still swinging on TV:

With 10.3% reporting in Minnesota, it’s Rubio (36.9%), Cruz (27.4%) and Trump (20.4%).

Updated

Here in downtown Minneapolis, Bernie Sanders supporters had, apparently, planned to gather to celebrate his victory at an Irish-style pub (featuring, for some reason, carved iguana statues) to celebrate his likely win.

But for the first hour after voting ended - while, in each precinct, two on-the-spot volunteers were painstakingly counting paper ballots - the only Sanders supporter in sight was one morose regular in the corner of the bar, who cracked several loud, sexist jokes about Hillary Clinton while staring at your humble correspondent.

He left before the Democratic caucus results began to roll in.

Victory for Gilmore

Republican candidate Jim Gilmore, the former governor of Virginia, somehow won the precinct of Chelsea, Massachusetts, across the river north of Boston, with 366 votes.

Take that, Trump.

How?

Zero Gravity, a local brewery in Vermont, sold 300 cases of their signature Bernie Weisse beer today, writes Lois Beckett in Essex Junction. That’s 7,200 cans of “a slightly sour and forward-thinking ale”.

There was a one case per person limit, bartender Emma Shea told me. They went on sale at noon, and sold out in about five hours, she said.

While the brewery is out of cans of Bernie Weisse, they’re still selling the ale on tap, she said.

Bernie Weisse.
Bernie Weisse. Photograph: Bernie Weisse

Can Rubio score a victory in balmy Minnesota?

Minnesota, which caucuses, has 38 delegates to offer, with a 10% threshold to win any delegates.

Trump wins Arkansas

That’s six for Trump.

The unresolved Republican races where polls have closed are Vermont and Minnesota.

Updated

Cruz begins with an ultra-slow narration of next January. President Obama will leave office. It will be his last day. Then we will have a new president. Then the new president will take office.

“The voters have spoken,” Cruz says. Then he jumps into his argument that everyone else should drop out so he can take on Trump:

So long as the field remains divided, Donald Trump’s path to the nomination remains more likely, and that would be a disaster for Republicans, for conservatives and for the nation...

And after tonight, we have seen that our campaign is the only campaign that has beaten, that can beat and that will beat Donald Trump.

We are the only campaign that has beaten Donald Trump once. Twice. Three times.

Updated

Cruz addresses supporters

It’s a happy crowd in Houston.

“Thank you, Texas!” Cruz begins. Ben Jacobs is in the house:

Watch Ted Cruz’s speech live here:

This is an ambitious line of messaging from the Kasich campaign:

“Tonight I can say that we have absolutely exceeded expectations,” Ohio governor John Kasich told supporters in Jackson, Mississippi, tonight.

“We are running right now neck and neck with Donald Trump in the state of Vermont,” he said. With 60% of the vote, Trump has 32.7% of the vote and Kasich 30.8%. “And that’s not exactly my home, OK, Vermont. We love Vermont,” he added in a Trump-ish touch, “but it’s a ways away.”

Kasich - a moderate in this Republican race - added that he and Marco Rubio were “basically tied for second” in Massachusetts.

He said he would have “home court advantage” in Mississippi and Michigan next Tuesday. “And then I’m going to tell you now we will beat Donald Trump in the state of Ohio,” he vowed. Ohio votes on 15 March.

The Colorado caucus in one Denver middle school was packed and chaotic as hundreds of voters filed in - most with Bernie Sanders stickers and T-shirts.

Kathy Mannion, 57, and Shelley Reed, also 57, were two of the only visible Hillary Clinton supporters in the crowd. They retreated to a corner waiting for the process to begin.

The women joked that they were afraid to talk to a reporter and wear their Clinton stickers among such a pro-Sanders crowd.

“She just has a better chance of winning and is a more realistic candidate,” said Mannion. “I like Bernie Sanders, but I don’t think he’ll be able to pull it off ... I’m scared of Trump on the other side.”

Reed added: “I just hope cooler heads prevail. I hope we don’t get caught in the celebrity of all this. It’s a race for president, not student president.”

Ashley Adams, a 31-year-old avid Sanders fan, said she was thrilled to see the turnout for the Vermont senator, but was worried to hear that Clinton was doing so well elsewhere in the country.

“I’ve been struggling with health issues and the health care system is honestly so f’d up,” she said. “We really need the changes Bernie has promised. My future and our future here depends on it.”

She continued: “I’m really sad to hear Clinton is winning. It’s a bummer. People really need to open their eyes.”

At Yearbook Taco Bar in Charlottesville, Virginia, a crowd of students from the University of Virginia’s business school were gathered around the bar watching election results roll in. And the consensus, as Donald Trump continued to climb in the polls, seemed to be that a Trump win in their state was something of an embarrassment.

“It’s going to make us look so stupid,” mourned a skinny first-year with glasses.

“Trump’s a buffoon,” replied his friend.

“Yeah,” agreed the one in glasses. “A buffoon who’s going to win everywhere.”

It’s often said that Virginia is a bellwether state, and whether that proves true this election, 1 March victories by Trump and Hillary Clinton in Virginia speak to the candidates’ strength in a crucial swing state.

With the GOP anti-establishment vote split between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, Marco Rubio had a strong performance in the state as he performed well in wealthy communities to the north such as Fairfax county.

Ultimately though he was no match for Trump.

Cruz, who announced his run for president at Liberty University in Lynchburg last year, had hoped to shore up the state’s evangelical vote, but despite repeatedly mentioning his faith and anti-abortion politics on the trail, he was not able to move past Trump, who beat out Cruz with evangelical voters in South Carolina last week and even attracted the personal endorsement of Liberty University president Jerry Falwell.

On the Democratic side, Virginia has long been considered to be Clinton country, with the former first lady attracting the support of practically every prominent state leader from Governor Terry McAuliffe on down. And on Tuesday those high level endorsements and campaign trail surrogates appeared to pay off, as Clinton easily bested Bernie Sanders.

With five big wins and the results still rolling in, Hillary Clinton took the stage at her party in Miami, Florida, a short time ago, Lauren Gambino reports.

A confident but hoarse Clinton reiterated her for more “live and kindness”, positioning herself in stark contrast to Donald Trump.

Clinton congratulated her opponent, Bernie Sanders, on a strong showing. She did not mention or even refer to him again, taking aim only at Republicans in a sign of her growing confidence that she has secured a path to the nomination.

In her speech, she emphasized the many ways she planned to “break down barriers” for disenfranchised Americans. She promised to protect all human rights: “workers rights, women’s rights, citing rights, LGBT rights, civil rights”.

As she spoke, the Associated Press projected that she had won Texas.

Clinton is expected to carry the momentum she’s built across the US on Super Tuesday into other states holding contests in the next couple weeks. Clinton told reporters earlier on Tuesday that the sooner the nomination process was wrapped up, presuming she wins, the sooner she could focus her fire at Republicans.

Hillary Clinton arrives to address supporters at her Super Tuesday election night rally in Miami.
Hillary Clinton arrives to address supporters at her Super Tuesday election night rally in Miami. Photograph: Gerald Herbert/AP

(She’s anti.)

This interminable spontaneous Trump news conference has a sideshow: Chris Christie’s moment of darkness.

Related: Six N.J. newspapers call on Christie to resign

But how long will Trump go?

Oh that’s it, he’s done now.

Updated

The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is in Houston waiting for Ted Cruz, who is waiting for Donald Trump to clam it.

Trump is asked whether Rubio should drop out if he loses Florida.

“I always liked Marco till about a week ago, when he decided to become hostile. When he decided to become Don Rickles,” Trump says.

“He had a bad night... He didn’t win anything, he hasn’t won. At least Ted has won something.”

Trump is asked about failing on CNN to disavow the support of former KKK leader David Duke.

“I disavowed,” Trump says. Then he digresses: “Chris is my number one. Chris gave me the honor of joining the campaign. We spoke today in Kentucky... and it was incredible. And every place that we’re speaking... we had 35,000 people the other day in Alabama.

And I’m just honored by it. When Chris joined, we had a news conference, and they asked me the exact same question, and I disavowed.

I totally disavow. Now everybody knew I did that. .. I mean how many times you supposed to disavow. Now I disavow, and hopefully it’s the last time I have to do it.

Trump’s asked whether he really believes in his policy proposals on issues such as immigration, or whether he just sees them as initial offers in a negotiations process.

No it’s not, but there is going to always be some negotiation. But it’s going to be a good negotiation, not a bad negotiation.”

Is immigration negotiable?

We are going to have a wall, I can tell you.”

Trump: 'I am going to be really good for women'

Trump takes a question about Planned Parenthood and decides to answer it. What a contrast from every candidate to speak. Instead of repeating his stump speech he holds a news conference.

He says Planned Parenthood does some good work, although he has promised to defund it.

Then this:

I am going to be really good for women

Then Trump is asked whether he feels like the presumptive nominee.

“I feel awfully good. I’m watching your people” he says of the media, and they are “being very nice to me tonight.”

They’re declaring Marco Rubio the big loser of tonight, and they’re right, because he hasn’t won anything.

Trump: 'I'm going after one person: Hillary Clinton'

Trump takes questions. Every appearance is a news conference in the Trump presidency candidacy.

The first one is about Nebraska senator Ben Sasse and other Republicans who say they would not support Trump were he the nominee.

“Let me just explain something. If you’ve seen what’s happened... South Carolina, Nevada ... tonight is the best of all,” Trump says. “We have expanded the Republican party... extra people coming in... We’ve actually expanded the party...

I am a unifier. Once we get all of this finished, I’m going to go after one person, and that’s Hillary Clinton.

I think Ted’s going to have a very hard time. But Ted at least has a shot because at least he’s won a little bit.

Chris Christie has apparently found zen in becoming a leading surrogate for Donald Trump.

Trump takes aim at Clinton

Trump addresses his supporters. “I watched Hillary’s speech and she says... everything’s [bad],” Trump says. “She’s been there so long, if she hasn’t straightened it out by now...”

Then Trump takes Clinton up on her contrast between his slogan, Make America Great Again, and her proposed counter, Make America Whole Again.

“Make America great again,” said Trump. “It’s going to be much better than making America whole again.”

The general election argument in a nutshell?

Then a dig at Rubio: “I know it was a very tough night for Marco Rubio. He had a tough night. He worked hard... he is a lightweight.”

Trump promises to campaign hard in Florida. The Guardian’s David Smith is in the room:

Updated

The news that Trump and Clinton have triumphed in Tennessee has been met with a tepid response in downtown Nashville.

There are no celebrations in the slew of country music bars that line Broadway. There was some boisterous cheering on the street just after the polls closed at 7pm, but it was from ice hockey fans. (The Nashville Predators are playing the Dallas Stars tonight.)

In Roberts Western World, a popular honky tonk bar where the drummer of a band recently fell out of a window, literally no one wanted to talk about the election. “We’re on vacation,” said one man. I’m currently sitting behind him. He is wearing his jeans very low, revealing his buttocks.

Earlier, I was across the road in Honky Tonk Central – according to the Yelp reviews it is rubbish – and people were more forthcoming.

“I voted for Cruz,” said Josh Chadwick, 30. “Cruz is a hard ass and he doesn’t take shit from anybody.”

Chadwick is from Texas and had voted early in his home state. He was in Nashville on business, he said. He also likes Carson and has given money to the retired surgeon’s campaign.

At Roberts Western World bar in Nashville, the focus was on music, not politics.
At Roberts Western World bar in Nashville, the focus was on music, not politics. Photograph: Adam Gabbatt for the Guardian

“He’s not a politician, Chadwick said. “He’s extremely smart, he’s a big Christian, and I completely agree with his tax plan. In my tax bracket that would be a big drop. I work damn hard for my money and I want to spend it how I want to spend it, not give it to someone else.”

Chadwick was accompanied by his colleague, Jenny. She did not want to give her last name.

“Hahahaha,” she said, or laughed, when I asked how she felt about Trump’s victory. “I’m laughing at Donald Trump,” Jenny said.

“I think he’s a joke. He’s off-balance, a crazy person that’s talking about stuff that’s not gonna happen.”

Jenny said she had not voted for Trump.

Mother and daughter Cathy and Amanda Leitz were seated further along the bar. They were on a road trip to Peoria, Illinois, where Amanda, 23, was moving to be with her boyfriend. They had passed through New Orleans, Atlanta and Chattanooga so far. They liked New Orleans the best.

“I like John Kasich, he looks like he could speak to both sides,” said Cathy, a property manager. She lives in Virginia. I asked if she had considered voting for Jim Gilmore, a favorite candidate of this blog. Or at least mine.

“No. I think his time has gone,” she said.

Amanda said she likes Ted Cruz. “I don’t want Hillary,” she said. “If it comes down to Trump and Hillary it’s going to be Trump. Obviously he runs his business well, but how does he treat his employees?” Amanda said. “Because we would be his employees.”

A sobering thought.

Christie touts Trump wins

Chris Christie is warming up the Trump crowd.

“Tonight is the beginning of Donald Trump bringing the Republican party together for a big victory this November. Tonight is the beginning of Donald Trump bringing our nation together to make America win again.

Christie says that the party must brace for the fight in the fall to “make sure Hillary Rodham Clinton never gets back to the White House.

He says Trump has run “not a campaign, it’s a movement.”

Watch Chris Christie and Donald Trump speak live here:

Marco Rubio struck a defiant tone tonight despite a dismal showing in which the senator failed to rack up a single win - and appeared short of the 20% threshold in certain states to secure any delegates.

Speaking in his hometown of Miami, Rubio declared it would be up to Florida to shift the direction of the race when that state votes on 15 March.

“Two weeks from tonight, right here in Florida, we are going to send a message loud and clear,” Rubio said before thousands at an equestrian center in the Miami suburbs. “We are going to send a message that the party of Lincoln and Reagan and the presidency of the United States will never be held by a con artist.”

With his family by his side, Rubio reiterated some of the lines in Spanish - prompting deafening cheers from the majority-Hispanic crowd.

While acknowledging there was “a lot of work to be done,” Rubio put on a brave face while insisting his numbers were on the rise while Trump’s were in decline.

“What’s at stake is not just the future of America but also the future of the conservative movement,” he said of the Republican frontrunner. “Do not give into the fear. Do not give into the sham artists and con artists who try to take advantage of your suffering.”

Rubio’s aides remain bullish about their prospects in Florida, where the senator is trailing Trump by double digits. Staffers working on the ground in Florida said their own numbers had Rubio inching up on the reality TV star.

Rubio himself said he was going nowhere, despite the increasingly uphill battle ahead.

“I will campaign as long as it takes … to ensure that I’m the next president of the United States,” he said.

Video: Suzette Laboy

Clinton holds slim lead in Massachusetts

Taking a gander at our lively and entertaining results page, we see that the race between the Democrats in Massachusetts remains tight, with 36.4% reporting. Clinton currently sits at 52%, with Sanders at 46.8%.

Looking like a very difficult night for Rubio, if he doesn’t start creeping above 20% in those states where he needs to to score any delegates at all – Alabama, Tennessee, Vermont and Texas...

But kind of a nice night for Ted Cruz, who will be making a strong argument that everyone else should clear the race:

Cruz winning Oklahoma is a considerable upset for pollsters. Real Clear Politics’ polling averages put Cruz in third place, a full 12 percentage points behind Trump and the electoral predictions site FiveThirtyEight thought that Cruz had a mere 11% chance of winning the state.

Marco Rubio is striving to project optimism about the contests ahead. But he hasn’t had any breaks so far – no win in Virginia or, it appears, Minnesota; [may have spoken too soon about Minnesota] no Cruz loss in Texas; and his own struggle to clear 20% in Texas and get a share of those 155 delegates.

P.S.: Rubio is behind Trump by 20 points in polling averages of the Florida GOP contest.

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Cruz projected to win Oklahoma

Per AP. That’s two for Cruz, five so far for Trump – and zero for Rubio.

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Rubio addresses supporters

The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui is in the hall in Miami, where Marco Rubio - who has failed to win any states this evening so far - has been addressing supporters:

“It is great to be home,” he says, before turning to the subject of Donald Trump:

We are saying in state after state … his numbers coming down, our numbers going up ... Two weeks from tonight, right here in Florida, we are going to send a message loud and clear.

What’s at stake is not just the future of America but also the future of the conservative movement.

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Rubio struggles for 20% in Texas

The margin in Texas, which has 251 delegates to award on the Democratic side and 155 delegates to give on the GOP side, is not clear – but the power of the result for home state senator Ted Cruz is unmistakable. He had as much as called Texas a must-win today – and tonight he delivered.

Texas is also a state where Republican candidates must clear 20%, both statewide and within congressional districts, to collect any delegates at all.

Where’s Rubio? With 1.6% reporting, Cruz has 39.1%, Trump has 28.2% and Rubio has... 19.5%.

Here’s Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman:

The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is in Houston:

Happy Cruz party in Stafford, Texas.
Happy Cruz party in Stafford, Texas. Photograph: David J. Phillip/AP

Lots of readers have been expressing shock at Trump cleaning up with 46.5% of votes in Massachusetts. It’s true that on the face of it, this state looks different to Trump’s typical white working class support base: median household income in Massachusetts is $69.2k (considerably higher than the national median of $53.6k) and 41% of voters have a bachelor’s degree or higher.

But a more detailed map from the Boston Globe shows that this is a varied state with many households earning much less than the median. It’s also possible that what we assume about Trump’s support base (assumptions grounded in shaky polling) is inaccurate and that the candidate has been able to reach out to wealthier Americans.

Boston Globe
Boston’s diversity Photograph: Boston Globe

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Clinton, Cruz win Texas

Immediately as polls close.

Many Rubio supporters are already pointing fingers at Ohio governor John Kasich for the Florida senator’s closer than expected loss to Donald Trump in the Virginia primary, writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs:

In their reasoning, if every Kasich voter had just supported Rubio, he would have won. But aside from that specious logic, Virginia’s primary is entirely proportional. Unlike most other Super Tuesday states holding Republican primaries, there are no thresholds for candidate to win delegates. This means all five candidates on the ballot, including Ben Carson, will net delegates from the Old Dominion.

However, if Rubio falls short of the 20% threshold in states like Alabama or Texas, then he can blame Kasich supporters. But, in Virginia, Rubio hasn’t lost a single delegate. He’s just lost some bragging rights.

Clinton draws contrast with Trump

Clinton is in Miami. “We’ve got work to do,” she tells supportesr. “But that work is not to make America great again. America never stopped being great.”

“What a Super Tuesday!” she begins. She says “Democrats voted to break down barriers so we can all rise together.”

She congratulates Sanders “on his strong showing.” Thanks her volunteers and organizers and donors.

“Now this campaign goes forward to the Crescent City, the Motor City and beyond,” she says.

Generic sauce, until she turns to drawing a sharp contrast with Trump:

This country belongs to all of us, not just those at the top. Not just the people who look one way, worship one way or even think one way. ... America is strong when we’re all strong.

We’ve got work to do. But that work is not to make America great again. America never stopped being great. We have to make America whole. We have to fill in what’s been hollowed out.

Her supporters oblige with a Trumplike USA! USA! USA! chant.

“I believe what we need in America is more love and kindness.”

The rhetoric we’re hearing on the other side has never been lower. Trying to divide America between us and them is wrong, and we’re not going to let it work.

Trump projected to win Virginia

Donald Trump has closed the deal in what looked like a close Virginia race, dashing the hopes of team Rubio to show a little Super Tuesday mojo. The AP has projected Virginia for Trump after a couple hours of concerted counting.

Trump has now blazed to victory in five states and blazed to defeat in zero states. Clearly a strong night for him.

Watch Hillary Clinton’s victory speech live here:

More state polls closing soon

Polls are about to close, at 9pm ET, in Colorado, Minnesota and Texas.

Texas is big. Colorado is only Democrats. Minnesota might be a silver lining for Rubio – if his winless performance so far tonight can be taken as a cloud.

Still at the Parkway Place Baptist Church, still desperately seeking conservatives and, instead, finding wave after wave of Clintonistas. If these people are any indication, the Clinton campaign needed only to exist as a concept in order to get out the vote.

There’s Jeanne Cole, a 72-year-old part-time worker and Clinton voter, who supported Bill during both presidential contests and more gubernatorial contests than she can remember. She got a letter from the Clinton campaign, but doesn’t recall ever being left literature or getting a door knock. She did not hear from the Sanders campaign.

There’s a 56-year-old African-American assistant principal in the Little Rock school district, who does not wish us to use his name. He’s a lifelong Arkansas resident and has supported the Clintons every year but 2008, where he broke for Obama.

“There’s a lot of stuff going on in our community that needs to be dealt with, and the Republican party is very divisive,” he says. “I think Bernie has some real good, strong ideas that need to be looked at, but when you look at the condition of Congress, his ideas are so far left that I don’t think he can get a lot of it done. I don’t think his ideas are possible. Clinton’s more moderate, and I think she can get more things done.”

Then there’s Lynn Boatner, 48, another African-American Clinton supporter, lifelong Arkansan and a “serial entrepreneur”, whose campaign exposure was also minimal.

Boatner was not persuaded by the Sanders campaign’s argument about the Clintons’ 1990s record with minorities.

“There are no perfect candidates, and everybody has something to work on, but Hillary’s a fighter,” she says. “Sanders talks a good game, but there’s a whole lot of work to do, and I’m not sure about his agenda.”

A few scattered conservatives emerge from the voting place — there are hats, stickers, shirts, or conversation to identify them by — but they duck and focus on their phones, don’t respond to questions or seem outright hostile.

“Pffffft,” says one one man whose hat is determined to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

His comment seems dismissive.

Cruz, Rubio face 20% barrier in some states to retain delegates

While wins are nice, proportional awarding of delegates tonight means that winning literally isn’t everything.

While Donald Trump has won Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia, there’s still exciting action in those races and in Vermont. In those four states (of states where polls have closed), the second-place candidate must win more than 20% of the vote to get any delegates at all.

And Cruz and Rubio are sitting right on the line, with incomplete returns:

In Alabama, with 1.4% reporting, both Cruz and Rubio are right around 20%: Rubio is at 20.2% and Cruz is at 19.8%.

In Georgia, with 13.5% reporting, Cruz is at 22.8% and Rubio is at 20.3%.

In Tennessee, with 2.1% reporting, Cruz is at 22% and Rubio is at 19.1%.

In Vermont, with 16% reporting, Trump is at 33.5% and John Kasich is at 29%. But Rubio sits on the cusp, at 19.1%. Cruz is in the single digits.

Visit our full results page here:

Updated

Bernie Sanders supporters are out in full force outside one Denver middle school site, an hour before the Colorado caucus is scheduled to begin.

Of the hundreds waiting to get inside, there are only a small handful of voters wearing Hillary Clinton gear and not a single pro-Clinton lawn sign is visible.

Voter Lizzy Holmgren said she felt torn between Sanders and Clinton - a fact that was visible on her purse, with two Sanders stickers and one Clinton logo.

“If any candidate accepts money from super pacs and banks, how can they govern once they are in office?” said Holmgren, a 30-year-old Denver resident who works in sales.

“But I love Hillary’s work with human rights and women rights and I think she did a great job as secretary of state,” she continued. “And I would love to see a woman president. That’s what makes me so conflicted ... This should be an easy vote, but it’s Bernie that had made this a hard decision for me.”

She said she was definitely leaning toward Sanders - but added, “Who knows once I get in there?”

Clinton wins Arkansas

Hillary Clinton has won her home state of Arkansas, the AP immediately projects as polls close. If her margin is big enough she could take the lion’s share of the state’s 37 delegates.

Clinton in an onstage interview at the BET Networks Leading Women Defined program in Bal Harbour, Florida, on Tuesday.
Clinton in an onstage interview at the BET Networks Leading Women Defined program in Bal Harbour, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

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A Puerto Rican Rubio voter Frank de Varona in Miami explains why he won’t be supporting Donald Trump. Video by Suzette Laboy.

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Arkansas polls to close

Arkansas polls close at 8.30pm ET. The state awards 40 Republican delegates and 37 on the Democratic side – not a giant prize, but interesting on the GOP side because some polls have shown Ted Cruz leading Donald Trump in the state, and Rubio appears competitive, too. Candidates must win at least 15% of the vote to win any delegates at all.

Here are past Arkansas winners:

dems
reps

Pop artist Hector Prado, an immigrant from Colombia, said he hoped to give Clinton this painting tonight at her party in Miami. If she did not accept, he hoped to sell it, though he wouldn’t name a price.
His goal, he said, was to “soften” her appearance and capture her as a woman and mother rather than a politician.

Updated

Trump appears to have over-performed, in a sense, among Massachusetts Catholics...

and under-performed among evangelical Christians in the Virginia precinct of Liberty University, whose president, Jerry Falwell Jr, is a major Trump surrogate:

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Donald Trump is set to speak soon in the white and gold ballroom at Mar-A-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, which he owns.

Guardians politics reporter Ben Jacobs checks out the calculus of the Alabama race – which is still something of a race, despite Trump’s win:

It’s not a surprise that Trump won Alabama and what’s significant there is not his margin but whether Rubio and Cruz break 20%. Under Alabama’s delegate rules, candidates need to break 20% statewide to have a decent chance of winning any delegates.

Alabama apportions 29 delegates statewide and three in each of its seven congressional districts. To qualify for statewide delegates, a candidate needs to break 20% statewide and needs to hit the same threshold in each congressional district to receive delegates there.

If both Cruz and Rubio are under 20% statewide, it is unlikely that either will get more than one or two delegates from Alabama, leaving Trump with all the rest.

Updated

Many of our readers have kept an eye on the polling predictions and are trying to figure out whether or not the candidates are exceeding expectations or not.

User avatar for John Edwin

from what i heard before the polls close rubio was expected to get about 30% of the vote in virginia..and that could be correct...or he could get lower than that still looks like a comfortable trump win there..

According to Real Clear Politics, Marco Rubio was expected to pick up slightly less than that in Virginia - around 22% of the Republican vote there. But it’s still a very important state for the candidate. The 49 Republican delegates available in Virginia are carved up in proportion to the vote share so this will be a key state for Rubio to pick up some much-needed extra support tonight.

Tight Republican race in Virginia

With a visit to our comprehensive results page, you’ll see that with 38.2% reporting on the Republican side, Donald Trump holds a 37%-30.9% lead over Marco Rubio in Virginia. Ted Cruz sits at 16.6%.

But many of the populous districts in the northern counties – Rubio country – are still missing. Politics junkies are getting pretty excited about Virginia.

Updated

Trump projected to win Alabama, Massachusetts, Tennessee

Immediately, Trump is declared the winner in three new states.

Clinton wins in Alabama and Tennessee as well.

That’s four states each for Trump (AL, MA, TN, GA) and Clinton (GA, VA, AL, TN), and one for Sanders (VT).

Get all the results on our comprehensive results page, which features animations of the candidates wielding paintbrushes and riding scissors lifts – at no extra fee!

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Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts reports from the Sanders rally in Burlington, Vermont:

“It’s good to be home,” said a tired-sounding Bernie Sanders as he celebrated a win in his home state before a rally of adoring supporters. “I am so proud to bring Vermont values all across this country”.

The timing of his speech, which is mainly focusing on his core message of taking on the establishment, is interesting, as is the absence of any mention of losses in Georgia and Virginia.

The result in Vermont had been known for about half an hour before he came on stage but nothing had been announced over the tannoy or on the big screen in the hall.

Sanders with his wife Jane and son Levi at his Super Tuesday rally in Burlington, Vermont.
Sanders with his wife Jane and son Levi at his Super Tuesday rally in Burlington, Vermont. Photograph: Brian Snyder/Reuters

If the heavy losses in the South are indicative of the tough night that the campaign expects, this is perhaps the only window of the evening in which he can give an upbeat speech to keep morale up.

Already there are signs of the narrative that is emerging to deal with any setbacks tonight.

First, this was always about more than just getting to the White House.

“I suspect many of you were down on the lake with me when we announced,” he tells the crowd. “This campaign is not just about electing a president, it is about making a political revolution.”

Second, don’t mind the quality, feel the width.

“Tonight you are going to see a lot of election results come in .. but remember this is not a general election, this is not winner takes all. By the end of tonight we are going to win many hundreds of delegates,” he adds.

“Let me assure you, we are going to take our fight.. to every one of the states”, he concludes – except the last bit of that bold prediction is drowned out by the roar of the crowd.

Many are now leaving the hall.

Updated

More state polls closing soon

At 8pm ET we’ll see another round of poll closings – Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and a lot of polls in Texas.

How will Ted Cruz do in Texas? We won’t look for an immediate result, but we have to admit intense interest in those tempting exit polls.

Two races this evening are unresolved so far: the Republicans in Virginia and Vermont.

Ms Miami Dade County is here to support Hillary Clinton on what is shaping up to be a big night for the Demcratic frontrunner. She is celebrating in Miami tonight, looking ahead to the next major contest, in Florida on 15 March, a sign of her confidence tonight.

Lolisa Wallace said she was looking forward to a great night at Clinton’s big party in downtown Miami. Wallace, a teacher at Felix Varela Senior High School, said she would love Clinton to speak to teachers during her remarks later this evening.

“No cuts!” Said Wallace. “That’s what I’d like to hear.”

Wallace said Clinton was an especially powerful role model for young women.

“I think that she is a strong and powerful leader,” she said. “She gives women like me power and inspiration to know that we too can be leaders and hang with the big boys!”

Lolisa Wallace.
Lolisa Wallace. Photograph: Lauren Gambino for the Guardian

The crowd was fired up here at Ice Palace Studios in downtown Miami. Several TVs around the spacious studio were broadcasting the results live. The crowd burst into applause when it was announced Clinton had won Georgia.

The blaring pop playlist that typically accompanies a Clinton rally has been replaced by a live music. Local band Melissa and the Juice had feet tapping with covers of the Black Keys and Creedence Clearwater.

And it wouldn’t be Miami without a little culture. A Clinton superfan raised a very large canvas water color painting of the former secretary of state above his head and turned it
so the whole crowd could see. The painting inspired a round of “Hillary” chants.

Updated

Polling stations in the greater Little Rock area have been moving people smoothly through the process all day, from The Heights, to downtown and back out to the suburbs. I headed there as the workday ended in search of a more reliable supply of Republican party voters and the attendant excitement of a contest that is not a foregone conclusion.

Instead, at the Parkway Place Baptist Church out in suburban west Little Rock, I found a Bernie Sanders supporter, Charlotte Smith. A 68-year-old retired registered nurse, Smith discovered Sanders not through the National Nurses United endorsement but through her 16-year-old grandson, who is out canvassing for the candidate, despite not yet being old enough to exercise the franchise.

“I think the political discourse needs to trend more toward the socialism he’s espousing,” Smith said. “We need to take more care of the lower classes. I don’t expect that he will win the nomination, but I want the party to go further toward the left.”

Smith didn’t seem to fear any consequences for her left-wing apostasy in the heart of Clinton country.

“I don’t associate with people who don’t agree with me,” she said, and laughed.

The Colorado GOP’s controversial decision to cancel its presidential straw poll could result in the state playing a crucial role in the ultimate nomination of a Republican candidate.

GOP officials in Colorado, a key swing state, decided not to do a traditional presidential preference poll this year due to the national party’s new rule requiring state delegates to support the candidate who wins on Super Tuesday. What that means is Colorado will still host Republican caucus events on Tuesday evening, but the results aren’t official and no delegates are bound to support a specific candidate.

Many have criticized this decision, noting that the Republican presidential candidates have in effect ignored Colorado to campaign in other states with much higher stakes. The Guardian, for example, has been unable to track down any GOP campaign or voter outreach events happening in the Denver metro area in the lead up to the Tuesday night caucus.

But with Donald Trump’s rise creating an internal crisis for the Republican party, Colorado’s delegates, who will be free agents, could be critical down the road if the race remains contested and if the other campaigns and party leaders fight to block Trump from the nomination.

“With Donald Trump doing so well in primaries across the country, the fact that Colorado’s delegates are unpledged could become really important at the convention,” said Peter Hanson, assistant professor of political science at the University of Denver. “If there’s some kind of convention fight ... Colorado delegates could become really important players in who the Republicans ultimately nominate ... If the voting is close, then I think those delegates could throw their support to the winning candidate.”

“The most important issue for me is the direction the country is going to head,” Matt Dean, 22, of Juneau, Alaska, tells Julia O’Malley. “We’re kind of at a crossroads here ... What you see is a drastic difference between the Bernie Sanders of the world and the Donald Trumps and then you’ve got the Rubios … Education is a big issue for me, having just left college; I’d like to see our university system improve … You’re starting to see a generation that is more fiscally conservative, but we are more socially aware and more open than the generation [of Republicans] preceding us.” He was voting for Marco Rubio.

Sanders wraps: “Thank you again for helping us win here tonight. And I look forward tonight to just saying hello to so many old friends”:

Trump projected to win Georgia

Donald Trump has found early victory in Georgia, according to AP projections. The state is the night’s second-biggest prize with 76 delegates to award.

Candidates need to cross a 20% threshold to get any delegates at all. If Rubio and Cruz can stay about 20%, they will split at least some of the Georgia spoils with Trump.

Trump at Valdosta State University in Valdosta, Georgia, on Monday.
Trump at Valdosta State University in Valdosta, Georgia, on Monday. Photograph: Andrew Harnik/AP

Updated

The AP goes out of its way to say it hasn’t called the Republican race in Georgia. CNN called it for Trump. Update: ABC News did too.

Updated

Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs wades delicately into exit poll data and sees whether voters have a college diploma as an important variable in the three states where polls have closed:

The first round of exit polls from Georgia, Vermont and Virginia show typical patterns in the Republican electorate. Trump is winning big among poorer and less educated voters while his rivals are doing better among other tranches of the electorate. Yet again, Trump is also losing late-deciding voters.

An important statistic continues to be whether voters have a college diploma. In both Virginia and Vermont, 60% of the voters had college degrees. That number is down to 51% in Georgia and that gap is one key reason for why Trump is closing on victory in Georgia and Vermont and Virginia are too close to call.

It’s also worth noting in Georgia, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz appear to have split split the anti-Trump vote. In contrast, Rubio surged in Virginia to become the key repository of establishment voters opposed to Trump, while John Kasich has done the same in Vermont.

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There’s a serious point being made here:

Aside from the fact that Vermont is Bernie Sanders’ home state, the fact that Vermont’s electorate is 96% white also would have worked in the candidate’s favor - polling has repeatedly shown that Sanders’s core support base is overwhelmingly white. If Sanders wants to change his fortunes, results tonight need to show that he has attracted the support of more non-white Democrats.

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Sanders addresses supporters

Bernie Sanders is speaking to an overjoyed crowd in Vermont.

“It is good to be home,” he begins, to big big cheers. “You know I’ve been all over this country, but the truth is it is great and great to come home, see all my friends,” he says.

“We want to win in every part of the country... but it means so much to me that the people who knew me best... have voted so strongly to put us in the White House. Thank you so much.”

Big cheers.

Updated

Watch Bernie Sanders’s victory speech in Vermont live here:

The Sanders campaign is fundraising off its big Vermont victory. But we have to fact check the claim to have won “a lot of delegates” – there’s only one territory with fewer delegates to award tonight than Vermont with 26; that’s American Samoa, which has 11 delegate gifts to give.

Here’s the top of the Sanders pitch:

The polls just closed and we have earned our first victory of the night in Vermont.

It looks like the margin should be impressive as well. That means a lot of delegates for our campaign, which is very important. I think we are going to do quite well tonight.

If I hadn’t been expecting to see Bernie Sanders volunteer Michael Gibino, knowing that he was knocking on doors in below-freezing temperatures in a residential St Paul neighborhood, he might’ve looked like a local giving another slightly-lost driver directions, writes Megan Carpentier in Minnesota.

But, in fact, the driver had pulled over to see if Gibino was lost, and Gibino had used the opportunity – despite the cold – to convince the driver to head to caucus on Tuesday evening.

“I’m really hyped”, he said, after the driver pulled away.

Gibino, an assistant manager at a local Trader Joe’s, took time off work on Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday to volunteer to go door-to-door to talk to Minnesota voters about caucusing on Tuesday – something he feels, by all rights, the Minnesota Democractic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party should have been doing more of themselves. “A lot of people don’t know where to do or feel intimidated by the process,” he said.

So, since getting Sanders supporters to the caucuses is considered quite important to the candidate’s prospects, Gibino used his long distance running skills to the campaign’s advantage, handing out materials all over the Twin Cities area over the last four days of extremely variable weather conditions – including doing 14 miles on foot on Sunday in a distant suburb while it first snowed and then rained.

“It makes you feel not just like you’re part of a political movement, but like part of a humanity movement,” he said of the Sanders campaign.

Michael Gibino
Michael Gibino Photograph: Megan Carpentier for the Guardian

Kellie Lange, a 28-year-old Denver resident who spent all day canvassing for Hillary Clinton, said her older brother is going to be caucusing for Bernie Sanders.
“I get it. He appeals to people’s frustrations,” she said. “But anger is not really what we need right now. What we need is someone who is pragmatic who can get things done - and not someone who is so far left they won’t accomplish anything.”
Lange, a business consultant, said she had been a Clinton supporter since she was a young girl. “She is the only candidate who has the experience, the temperament and the drive.” She said she was sick of Sanders supporters - including her brother - questioning Clinton’s sincerity.
“She has always stood for the same things,” Lange said. “When people meet her face to face, they see she is very sincere.”

Kellie Lange.
Kellie Lange. Photograph: Sam Levin for the Guardian

The top quality voters in both Virginia and Georgia are looking for in a candidate is experience, according to early results of the exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the Associated Press and Television Networks:

Clinton won both states. She drew support from a large majority of those who cared most about a candidate who can win in November.

Which issues do you want the candidates to discuss?

We’d like to know which election issue – big or small – matters most to you.

Tell us which topic you would like to see the candidates talking about more by completing this form. We’ll sort the results and report back.

Trump supporter in Louisville, Kentucky.
Trump supporter in Louisville, Kentucky. Photograph: Chris Bergin/Reuters
Hillary Clinton at Mapps Coffee Shop in the Cedar Riverside neighborhood of Minneapolis.
Hillary Clinton at Mapps Coffee Shop in the Cedar Riverside neighborhood of Minneapolis. Photograph: Jim Gehrz/AP
Madison Albrect, a student at the University of Texas at Austin.
Madison Albrect, a student at the University of Texas at Austin. Photograph: Tamir Kalifa/AP

Hillary Clinton has placed gun control at the center of her presidential campaign, using it to draw contrast with her opponent, Bernie Sanders, writes Lauren Gambino.

But a report in the International Business Times on Tuesday said that a Clinton campaign fundraiser would be co-hosted by Jeff Forbes, a lobbyist whose clients have included the National Rifle Association (NRA).

Asked if that “undermines” the message and might even drive people to support Sanders, Clinton’s campaign chair, John Podesta, downplayed the issue, while not denying that Forbes would be the co-host.

“We’re trying to raise the resources that are necessary with respect to her positions,” Podesta said during an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper. “For example, there’s no one who’s been stronger, louder, in taking on the gun lobby than Hillary Clinton. She has a record in sharp contrast to Senator Sanders who’s voted five times against the Brady Bill. Voted to provide immunity to gun owners. He [Sanders] has shifted, to some extent, we welcome that, in the course of this campaign. But she’s going to take on the gun lobby, take on Wall Street with comprehensive plan.”

Sanders winning Vermont is the least exciting thing to happen tonight, statistically speaking. I looked at polling averages from Real Clear Politics and Vermont is a clear outlier as the only state a win was near-certain for one Democratic candidate. There’s another reason why the Sanders camp probably won’t be breaking out the champagne just yet; only 26 Democratic delegates were up for grabs in Vermont - hardly a game changer.

Clinton lead’s in Super Tuesday states
Clinton lead’s in Super Tuesday states Photograph: The Guardian

What’s going on in the Republican races in Virginia and Georgia? Keep a tab open to our results page. Zero percent have reported, and unlike on the Democratic side, exit polls were not decisive. But if you want to look at that exit polling data... handle with care.

Updated

Clinton projected to win Georgia, Virginia

Almost immediately as polls close, the Associated Press projects Vermont senator Bernie Sanders to have won his home state – as overwhelmingly predicted.

And no big surprise in the Clinton wins in Georgia and Virginia – the larger delegate hauls, with 109 delegates at stake in Virginia and 117 in Georgia. The delegates are awarded proportionally, so the final margin will matter.

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First polls set to close

The first Super Tuesday polls are set to close, in Georgia, Virginia and Vermont. Follow along here all night as we bring you immediate results from across the country.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is expected to snap up Vermont, and on the Republican side Georgia is the second-biggest prize of the night after Texas, with 76 delegates to award.

Most interesting of all may be the Republican contest in Virginia, where Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are hoping to demonstrate that consistent polling leads by Donald Trump are overrated.

We expect snap projections of 7pm winners shortly – you can follow along with all of the evening’s results on our comprehensive results page.

Updated

Hillary Clinton is literally phoning it in... in Samoa, reports the Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui:

It can be easy to forget but technically tonight isn’t about about vote share – it’s about delegate share. How you get from one to the other can involve some tricky math especially among Republicans who use different formulas in different states (things are far more simple on the Democratic side, where delegates are distributed in proportion to votes).

One system used by Republicans is a simple winner-takes-all, where all delegates from the state are awarded to whoever comes first in the primary or caucus (this is the system used in South Carolina). Other states use a proportional system (including Alaska, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Virginia who are all voting today) and some primaries like the one in Texas use a system somewhere between proportionality and simple majority. There’s a full explanation of which system is used in which state here from Frontloading HQ, who also produced the map below.

Republican delegate rules
Republican delegate rules Photograph: Frontloading HQ

Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi writes:

If, like me, you’re already feeling exhausted by these primaries you’ll be pleased to know that by this time tomorrow we’ll be about a third of the way through the process.

Up until now, just 13% of Democratic and 5% of Republican delegates have been pledged to - by Wednesday morning those numbers will have jumped to 24% and 30%, respectively.

There is a wistful vibe at the Bernie Sanders rally in Burlington, Vermont, as several thousand local supporters wait for results to start trickling in.

The mood isn’t helped by Ben Folds and various other warm up acts who - while musically excellent - lack a little of the energy of the standard playlist at a Bernie event.

Campaign staff are keen to keep the large media pack focused on their stellar fundraising news in recent days, which they claim is now another reason why their candidate would be a stronger Democratic opponent to put up against Donald Trump.

“Trump is going to have plenty of money to compete in November,” said Jeff Weaver, Sanders’s campaign manager. “It’s important that our nominee be able to raise the hundreds of millions of dollars necessary to defeat the Republicans in November. Secretary Clinton’s reliance on maxed-out mega-donors isn’t sustainable and should scare Democrats who want to keep the White House in November.”

It’s as if the campaign has come full circle: now Bernie is the wealthy one.

Updated

Track all tonight's results on our master data page

Our page of comprehensive results is now live – this is the place to follow along state-by-state and county-by-county.

Watch as animated candidates on scissors lifts paint in counties as they claim the lead. Here’s just a little more super for your Tuesday:

Adam Gabbatt has just been to Belmont University in Nashville, where primary voting is going on, as is a five-piece acoustic guitar show.

The weather is still miserable here, which is a great shame as I’ve brought my sunglasses and everything and was hoping to get a bit of a tan.

But hey, you can’t win ‘em all. Later on I will be hanging out on Broadway in downtown Nashville, where bands play in every bar and men on bachelor parties get drunk in every bar. For now here are two voters I spoke to.

“She’s the lesser of the evils,” said Charlotte Dinkins, 52, who voted for Hillary Clinton. “I nearly asked for a Republican ballot. Trump I don’t like, but he’s consistent. He’s consistently an ass. He believes in what he’s saying to the point where I’d almost believe him too. He is abrasive, he’s an irritant, but he’s very convicted. He is a businessman and realistically our economy needs a little fixing.

“[But] I’m stuck on the fact that the Democratic way is the right way and Hillary has the experience. Plus I think it’s time for a woman.”

She added: “I still believe in this country. My life is kind of consistent. A lot of the things that rock most of the world don’t bother me. When the economy dropped, I was poor anyway. When you’re poor how do you know when the country’s poor? You almost have the advantage when you start poor, and the rest of the people are going crazy, it’s like: ‘This is the way it is. Calm down.

“The Democrats are more inclusive with regard to race and the other different preferences. I think the Democrats, we have a reputation and a long-standing history of being inclusive. We’ve got blacks as president and hopefully we’ll get a woman as president.”

Dominic Malnar
Dominic Malnar Photograph: Adam Gabbatt for the Guardian

“I don’t support Donald Trump,” agreed Dominic Malnar, a 21-year-old student who voted for Marco Rubio. “I think he’s kind of a tyrant. I like Bernie Sanders but I think he’s trying to do too much. As for making it a socialist government, while that might sound nice it could end up not helping our country in the long run. And I just thought: ‘Marco Rubio, he’s an honest, good man, had good values.’

“It’s kind of scary, because as soon as this election is over, for guys of my age and many other people we’re just getting out of college. And this is the government that we have to follow. We can’t use our parents any more, we’ve got to be on our own. If our country isn’t in a good place it could hurt a lot of jobs for us. I graduate in May and I soon as I graduate I’m in the fire.”

What do we know about the Americans who are voting today? Thanks to the US Census Bureau, quite a lot, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi:

In Alabama and Georgia, the population is almost a third black. In both of those states, Hillary Clinton has a large lead on Bernie Sanders (polling has repeatedly shown that Sanders’ inability to attract non-white voters is a big weakness for the candidate and could ultimately prove to be his downfall). In Texas and Colorado, Hispanic voters will have a major say in Democratic outcomes (in those states too, Hillary is doing very well).

Four out of five adults in Tennessee say that religion is important to them as the graphic below from Pew Research Center shows. The vast majority of them are evangelical Protestants, a group which has been favorable to Ted Cruz in the past and will prove particularly important in influencing outcomes in Texas tonight.

Religion in Super Tuesday states
Religion in Super Tuesday states Photograph: Pew Research

Updated

Anber Fike and her two children, Catherine and Henry Fife, at a polling center in Edmond, Oklahoma.
Anber Fike and her two children, Catherine and Henry Fife, at a polling center in Edmond, Oklahoma. Photograph: J Pat Carter/EPA
Voters at McGee Community Center in Conway, Arkansas.
Voters at McGee Community Center in Conway, Arkansas. Photograph: Michael B. Thomas/AFP/Getty Images
Voters queue outside the polling station in London as voting began in the U.S. Democrats Abroad Global Presidential Primary.
Voters queue outside the polling station in London as voting began in the U.S. Democrats Abroad Global Presidential Primary. Photograph: Frank Augstein/AP

“Being in Alaska, the most important thing for us is keeping Alaska open for business, not locking up any more land, not putting any more restrictions on responsible resource development,” Kate Blair, 36, tells Julia O’Malley in Anchorage. “Part of the reason I am voting in my first presidential primary is so I can vote against Trump; I think he’s a a huge embarrassment to the Republican party ... I think a lot of people feel that way.” She is supporting Marco Rubio.

Kate Blair.
Kate Blair. Photograph: Julia O'Malley for the Guardian

Updated

Virginia an early test of Republicans' strength

Of the states with polls set to begin closing in about 40 minutes, the most exciting may be Virginia, which awards 49 delegates on the Republican side and which hosts a mix of highly educated voters in the north around Washington DC and low-income voters in the central state and rural west.

If Trump does well in Virginia, it could point to a strong night for him overall. But Marco Rubio spent all Saturday campaigning here – and an early win would be a huge boost for his candidacy.

Here are past winners of the Virginia primaries:

dems
repubs

Updated

First polls to close in one hour

Here’s a state-by-state guide to when the polls close tonight:

In Georgia, Vermont, and Virginia, polls begin closing at 7pm EST.



In Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas, polls begin closing at 8pm EST.



In Arkansas, polls begin closing at 8:30pm EST.



In Minnesota and Colorado, polls begin closing at 9pm EST.



In Alaska, polls begin closing at 12am EST.


Updated

David Smith checks in from Palm Beach, Florida, where Donald Trump will give a press conference later on at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

“It’s probably no accident he has chosen Marco Rubio’s home state,” notes David.

Updated

Students at Liberty University, an evangelical stronghold in Virginia that has become a presidential campaign trail magnet in recent years, told the Guardian on Tuesday they have reservations about Donald Trump, writes Lucia Graves:

The school’s president, Jerry Falwell, recently endorsed Trump, who has been making inroads with Christian voters around the country. But conversations with the school’s young attendees suggest he still has a lot of work to do. In a series of interviews with students at the school’s on-campus voting site, students repeatedly expressed concern about Trump’s character, even as they praised his business acumen.

Kevin Zahne, a sophomore accounting major said he doesn’t favor Trump because he’s “kind of harsh and mean.” To back it up he noted “look at his past, he’s gone through many wives and everything with him feels very much like a business transaction.”

Kevin Zahne, a sophomore at Liberty University.
Kevin Zahne, a sophomore at Liberty University. Photograph: Lucia Graves

Zahne prefers doctor Ben Carson, whom he describes as “a good person.” But he’s realistic about Carson’s chances. “If it were between him and Clinton, I’d still vote for him,” he concedes of Trump.

Jazzlyn Taylor, a freshman at Liberty, from what she describes as “a military family,” agrees. Whiles she likes Trump on fiscal issues, he loses her when it comes to social ones. “The whole wall plan,” is something she disapproves of. “Why would you do that?” she asks. Her friend Meleena Morgan, also a freshman, feels similarly.

“I want any president to be professional and he’s not professional,” Morgan says of Trump. “He’ll call people names and kick them out of events. It’s not a professional thing to do.”

Updated

The exit polls temptation

Exit polls – those sketchy vessels of pseudo-data that probe how high in the minds of Alabama voters was the upset win of Spotlight at the Oscars – are here again, and, as usual, we here provide you with a link to them without inviting you to click through or draw any rash conclusions based on what you find there.

But if you’re the kind of news consumer who likes to know that more primary voters in most of today’s Southern states think race relations have gotten worse in the last few years than say they’re better – have at it.

Updated

At Hillary Clinton’s bustling Minneapolis headquarters (located upstairs in the Minneapolis Plumbers Union Local 15 building) on Tuesday afternoon, volunteers manned phones in every nook and cranny – including at chairs in the supply closets, their computers resting on shelves – making calls to voters about the evening’s caucuses.

The majority of the volunteers were young women, though maybe not quite as young as Mari Adams, 19, and Hannah Alstead, 20, two fellows with the campaign who both swore that they were “long-time” Clinton fans.

Adams said she’d been a Clinton supporter since she was 10, adding “I have a political family and am pretty passionate about women in politics”; Alstead, who said she “grew up walking in parades for my grandpa when he ran for Senate”, called Clinton “by far the most inspirational person I’ve ever had the chance to meet.”

Mari Adams, left, and Hannah Alstead.
Mari Adams, left, and Hannah Alstead. Photograph: Megan Carpentier

Alstead, a political science major at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities campus, said of the caucuses that, in her experience, “People haven’t made it that big a deal”, and that, while there’s definitely support for Bernie Sanders on campus “I also see it for Hillary Clinton and other candidates.” But given her fellow political science majors’ intellectual interests, she surprised that there isn’t more passion for the caucuses and the race. “When I turned 18”, she said “the first thing I wrote on Facebook was ‘Finally, I’ll be able to vote!’”

“To be able to vote in this election and to say that I was able to work for Secretary Clinton and hopefully be able to push her though the caucuses ... I just hope I get the opportunity to vote for her again in November,” she added.

Adams added, grinning ear-to-ear: “I’m beyond excited! Voting is ... Election Day is like a holiday to me.

“I think we made a difference, I really do.”

Updated

What were the candidates up to today? Both Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio passed through Minneapolis, Minnesota; Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz voted in their respective home states of Vermont and Texas; and Donald Trump visited... Ohio, which is not technically a Super Tuesday state.

Ted Cruz urges rivals to leave presidential race for sake of ‘unity’

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson went on MSNBC and said “of course” he’d been asked to get out of the race by unnamed party officials but that “millions of social media fans” contributing money had convinced him not to take the party’s advice. Carson did beat Ohio governor John Kasich in Nevada. Kasich, for his part, has said that Trump might perform a clean sweep of tonight’s voting... but you can’t stop him with insults:

Sanders hopes for high turnout

“I am confident that if there’s a large voter turnout today across this country, we are gonna do well.”

Rubio: ‘I feel very optimistic’

Updated

Laredo resident David Cortez has a Trump sign in his front yard – perhaps the only Trump sign in a border city that was 96% Hispanic or Latino at the 2010 census, in a county where Barack Obama won 77% of the vote in 2012.

Certainly, this reporter spent several hours driving around the city on Tuesday afternoon in a vain effort to find another one.

“It’s surprising how many people have mentioned my sign and they said: ‘You know, it’s just not kosher to put up a Trump sign but we are going to support him,’” Cortez said. “There’s a lot of hidden Republicans that are going to come out because they are like me: they want something better for our families. You’re going to be surprised at the amount of votes that Trump gets out of the entire [Rio Grande] Valley.”

The 83-year-old was not deterred by Trump’s description last year of many Mexican migrants as criminals and rapists. “It doesn’t offend me that he says anything about rapists. If they’re rapists they’re rapists, if they’re thieves they’re thieves, OK? Simple as that. Why should we be offended? He’s only bringing out the truth,” said Cortez, who is of Mexican descent.

“I think the wall is the answer. The Vatican has the wall and it keeps people out. Other nations have walls. So we’re not the first ones. Let’s just hope that that stems the flow of drugs into the US.”

Unable to source an official campaign sign - it is fair to say that Trump’s ground game in border communities is weak - Cortez made his own, from a door. “This door is an indication that my door is always open to Mr Trump,” he said.

David Cortez and his daughter Cindy.
David Cortez and his daughter Cindy. Photograph: Tom Dart for the Guardian

The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is with Ted Cruz in Texas, but we suspect he is busy composing a year’s worth of tweets to fill out the ingenious timeline in which the Huffington Post imagines “If Presidential Candidates Throughout History Tweeted Like Donald Trump”:

We’ve collectively interviewed a lot of voters today, and if you scroll through the day’s earlier live blog you’ll find a lot of mini-interviews in most every state that’s been voting.

Here’s a new one – Santino Martinez, a 24-year-old Colorado Springs resident and cannabis grower, who hopes the state’s marijuana industry lines up behind Bernie Sanders.

“I feel like Bernie is pro-pot,” said Martinez, who works in Colorado’s legal weed industry, which has boomed over the last two years. “If he legalizes pot, it can destroy the black market and bring prices down ... Cannabis is really a medicine and that’s what the future of the industry is. So that means cheaper medicine for people ... It wouldn’t be such a burden on consumers.”

Santino Martinez: ‘I feel like Bernie is pro-pot.’
Santino Martinez: ‘I feel like Bernie is pro-pot.’ Photograph: Sam Levin for the Guardian

Sanders hasn’t fully embraced the idea of legal marijuana, but he has generally been more progressive and less cautious on the subject than Hillary Clinton.

Martinez noted that Sanders also often talks about the importance of decriminalizing marijuana given that the enforcement of drug laws disproportionately affects people of color.

“That message speaks to Latino and black folks ... and that resonates with people in the business, but also on a heart level,” said Martinez, who is Mexican and black and was helping canvass for Sanders in Denver starting at 5am on Super Tuesday. “We should be pardoning people who are in prison for crimes that are harmless, like minor possession.”

Updated

Keep your states straight with our primer

Having trouble keeping track of all the states flying around tonight? Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi has you covered with a primer on all 13 locations (12 states plus American Samoa) that will, together, shape the rest of the race.

Consider, for example, Texas:

Texas

Primaries held: Democratic and Republican presidential primaries.

Delegates: 155 Republican delegates, 251 Democratic delegates.

Texas Dems

Things to watch out for: Just watch everything. With so many delegates, Texas will be an incredibly important state in determining the presidential candidates in this election. Cruz is leading in the polls in Texas; a win could help turn the candidate’s fortunes around at the national level. In 2008, Texans voted for Clinton, a fact which might still work in her favour eight years later.

Demographics: In the last national election, Texas had one of thelowest turnout rates in the country. After New Mexico, this is the most important Latino voting state in the country – 35% of voters here are Hispanic.

Texas GOP

Read the full state-by-state primer here:

Updated

Greetings, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of Super Tuesday, the biggest voting day on the American election calendar until November and a potential turnstile-of-no-return in the parties’ respective efforts to nominate someone for president.

Will we know whether Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are the nominees by night’s end? Not conclusively, it seems. But the 12 states voting tonight will award about 20-25% of the total delegates at stake and we’re likely to have, in a matter of hours, a much-improved picture of where this thing is headed.

Super Tuesday states
States to vote in blue.

This blog will bring you results immediately as they emerge. We’ll tell you whether Senator Ted Cruz won his home state of Texas, or whether Trump stole it from under his nose. And whether Senator Marco Rubio picked off Minnesota or Virginia or another state, or whether his non-wins were strong enough to keep him in plausible contention.

On the Democratic side, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders is expected to best Clinton easily in his home state, which votes tonight, and he’s also running hard in neighboring Massachusetts. But Clinton looks strong throughout the south and in Texas, the night’s big delegate prize on both sides.

The first polls close at 7pm ET (more info on that to come), with victory projections expected right away in some cases. After eight or so months of asking voters to support them, the candidates tonight will get unequivocal answers in the form of actual vote tallies from far and wide.

Costumes not included.

Speaking of far and wide – while this blog will be anchored from New York City, Guardian reporters are on the ground tonight across the country. Dan Roberts is with Bernie Sanders in Vermont, Sabrina Siddiqui is with Marco Rubio in Miami, Ben Jacobs is with Ted Cruz in Texas, David Smith is with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida, and Lauren Gambino is with Hillary Clinton in Miami. In addition, Matthew Teague is filing from Alabama, Lois Beckett from Vermont, Richard Wolffe from Georgia, Lucia Graves from Virginia, Jill Abramson from Massachusetts, Megan Carpentier from Minnesota, Jeb Lund from Arkansas, Sam Levin from Colorado, Julia O’Malley from Alaska, and Adam Gabbatt from Tennessee.

Do you think this will be Trump’s big night? Detect any weaknesses in the Clinton bid? See any chance for the Rubio fantasy of a Cruz loss in Texas playing out? As always, let us know in the comments – and thanks for following along and joining in!

Updated

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