Labor four from four, independent retains Mayo
We end the night with nothing having changed in the parliament – which means everything has.
For the government.
Labor campaigners are telling me that the result is “way better than expected” and these are the same people who over the last few weeks have been telling me how close it was going to be. Part of the reason these byelections were so difficult to call is because the parties themselves didn’t know how it would go – and that’s because polling single seats is a notoriously difficult job.
And that’s not a new opinion I’ve latched on to. It is literally in my first post. I didn’t get to Braddon, but I was in Longman and I spoke to hundreds of people over those 10 days and at that stage, no one knew where they would put their vote.
Then Pauline Hanson exited the campaign.
Labor blitzed Longman with the biggest ground campaign ever seen.
Trevor Ruthenberg’s medal “mix up” was made public.
Malcolm Turnbull was yelled at by boomers in what is usually a core constituency of the Liberals in Longman.
Eric Abetz’s intervention in Braddon, by highlighting the independent Craig Garland’s former charges backfired spectacularly
Labor’s message of protecting health services, banning big business tax cuts for the banks and giving bigger tax breaks to low and middle class income earners took hold.
And when you get right down to it, Bill Shorten is a better on-the-ground campaigner than Malcolm Turnbull. That makes sense – Shorten’s career has been in campaigning. Turnbull’s has been in talking.
So a byelection campaign that had Labor on the hop – it was their seats they were defending, it was their national conference which was rescheduled, it was all hands on deck when usually those hands get a break – has ended with the government nervously looking at the results, particularly in Queensland and wondering where to from here.
I can’t answer that, either for you, or for them. And I don’t expect we will get those answers in the immediate future. Instead, I can promise you that we will be back, when parliament resumes on 13 August to keep you up to date with Politics Live, and of course, there you’ll find everything that happens outside the sitting weeks in the Australian politics section of the Guardian.
So for now, I will bid you a goodnight – thank you to the Guardian’s brain trust, especially to Ben Smee, Katharine Murphy and Ben Raue, and to all those behind the scenes who make sure this little ship stays upright on the internet.
And as always, the biggest thank you, to you for reading. It was a bit crazy tonight, so I haven’t had a chance to look at the messages or the comments, but I promise to go through them.
Politics Live will be back on 13 August, where Mike Bowers will also be back with you. But in the meantime – take care of you.
Updated
And on One Nation’s vote, having a look at how they performed at the 2017 state election in the state electorates that take in Longman, we can see this:
PUMICESTONE: 23.3%
MORAYFIELD: 25.2%
GLASS HOUSE: 27.1%
KURWONGBA: 22.6%
AVERAGE: 23.9%
So while a 15% result is good for a minor party – it is a drop from the support they saw in November last year.
Updated
Just before we wrap up, and because I know these words will be important in the coming weeks, here are the times we’ve found where Malcolm Turnbull made the byelections a contest between himself and Bill Shorten:
NEIL MITCHELL:
Okay. Do you think these Super Saturday by elections is a test for Bill Shorten’s leadership?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I mean every election is a test for both leaders.
NEIL MITCHELL:
So it is for you as well?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well yes it is. But I mean I just want to be realistic about this. You know the last time the government won a by election seat from an opposition in a by election was 1911, so.
NEIL MITCHELL:
So you’re not expecting to win any?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well we always try to win. We campaign hard to win. But you’ve got to be realistic about your expectations.
And the quote from my story on July 12 came from this interview:
PRIME MINISTER: And the people of Longman are going to have a choice soon in the by-election and they’ll have the opportunity to cast their judgment on the rolled gold guarantees that Bill Shorten has given, whether it’s about Susan Lamb’s citizenship, or whether it’s about tax.
He’s had just about every position on tax, being in favour of cutting company tax when he was in government, and now he wants to put it up.
They’ll have the opportunity to vote and give their opinion on the strength of the economy and the need to have strong, Liberal National Government to deliver that economic leadership that is delivering the strong growth in jobs that we’ve seen, last year, 2017, alone - 415,000 jobs created, strongest jobs growth in our country’s history.
REBECCA LEVINGSTON: So if the Labor voters are about Bill Shorten, are those in the LNP voting for Malcolm Turnbull?
PRIME MINISTER: Of course. The head-up, the contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader.
I am going to let Murph wrap this up for us, because I am mostly a broken human right now:
From Katharine Murphy’s report:
Labor has emerged victorious in critical byelection contests in Tasmania and Queensland in a significant fillip for the federal leader Bill Shorten, boosting its primary vote in Longman and harvesting the lions share of preferences in Braddon.
After gruelling three-month campaigns triggered by the last vestige of federal parliament’s dual citizenship crisis, Labor held crucial terrain in two key marginal seats and is set to return two MPs to Canberra in the west coast contests – a clean sweep, shoring up its foundations for the next federal election.
The Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie also held out a challenge from the Liberal party’s star recruit Georgina Downer, whose father, a former foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer, held the South Australian electorate from 1984 to 2008.
Sharkie – a popular and hardworking minor party representative – declared her emphatic victory in the seat of Mayo was attributable to “people power”.
The Turnbull government had been hopeful of triggering an upset in either Longman or Braddon in the super Saturday contests. No Australian government has picked up a seat from an opposition at a byelection for close to a century. The average two-party-preferred swing against an incumbent government at a byelection is between 4% and 5%.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull on 12 July to Brisbane ABC radio:
It’s a test of the parties, but it’s really about the people of Longman deciding whether they want to vote for Bill Shorten and his higher taxes, fewer jobs, lower wages and less economic growth,” Turnbull said.
“The … contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the prime minister and the opposition leader.”
Updated
You would have already made this leap – but messages from Liberal MPs are rolling through pointing out Malcolm Turnbull’s absence.
“Even when Shorten lost, he was there, helping to spin it as victory. We should have our leader up there,” one reads.
Others are pointing out what we’ve already spoken about – how the early election talk is being hit on the head, at least within Liberal WhatsApp groups (I assume).
“That confidence, that momentum … it’s taken a hit,” one Liberal MP tells me.
And yes, I know you don’t always like it when I get these messages, but it’s my job to talk to everyone and let you know the feeling from within the parties.
Updated
It may be the hour, it may be the lack of days off, but lols at Trent Zimmerman denying the government has had a “miserable night” tonight.
No. I don’t think it is. If you look at what you normally expect to happen in circumstances such as this, the government’s done very well. We’ve gone from a situation in Bennelong where we had a 5% swing to seeing tonight swings in the two head-to-head Liberal-Labor seats of a positive swing to the government in one, and an average swing against the government in the other. So, I think that if the opposition had opinion hoping to get momentum out of this, they have failed in that respective
Yes, he has to put a positive spin on it. BUT COME ON.
Justine Keay gives her victory speech
Justine has taken the stage and is also promising to fight for her community.
“I will fight for you today, I will fight for you tomorrow, and I’ll fight for you as long as you will have me.
“... And I will take this fight to the next general election”
Updated
Longman is going to be the contest we all look at over the next few days, despite how much the Libs in my messages streams want to tell me it’s “ridiculous we are celebrating Labor winning back their own seats in byelections”.
(Yes, I am pointing them back to the celebrations in New England and Bennelong, calm down.)
But with 33 of the 40 booths counted in Longman the figures are just getting more and more grim for the government:
Susan Lamb – 41.66% a swing of 4.34% to Labor
Trevor Ruthernberg – 26.19% a 10.13% swing against the LNP
Matthew Stephens and 50 Pauline Hanson cardboard cutouts – 15.24% – up 6.08% from the last election.
Updated
For anyone still wondering – Labor has won both Perth and Fremantle.
I could tell you the numbers, but there was no question about these contests.
Updated
Over at Big Trev’s party:
Actually, Brett Whiteley wasn’t conceding in Braddon:
“This was a contest like climbing Mount Everest without any oxygen.
“And right now the summit is going to be hard to make from here. But we’re close. But maybe not close enough. So we do need to wait to all the votes are counted.”
Updated
Here’s what it looks like in Longman right now:
And you can expect to see this replayed again and again and again:
Malcolm Turnbull on 12 July said #SuperSaturday byelections were a referendum on leadership.
— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) July 28, 2018
Bit awks now. pic.twitter.com/dk3j8uJwO0
Ladies and gentlemen, tonight means Malcolm Turnbull will most likely get his wish – we won’t be heading to a general election until next year. Probably late April early May.
Updated
Susan Lamb has taken the stage and she says if she sounds exhausted, it is because she is.
And I don’t blame her – head to the inside Labor’s Longman ground campaign post to see just what this 10-week was like for her.
She thanks Trevor Ruthenberg for “a very clean contest” and while the crowd is skeptical, she means it.
From the bottom of my heart, I want to thank each and every single one of you that are here tonight. You know, trust me, I don’t take this lightly at all. I promise I will stand up for you, just like I did when I first held the seat.”
Updated
More Bill Shorten:
So, friends, can I say that tonight is another signpost into the destination that matters for Australians. A Labor government after the next general election.
“… Tonight, though, this next bit of advice is superflous, we should celebrate and tomorrow too.
“But I do thank the voters in all of the electorates because I promised them for the confidence they’ve displayed in us, for our mighty movement, we’ll be back to work straight after our celebrations, back to the work that really matters.
“I promise the Australian people, we will continue the work of putting together a policy agenda for the next national Labor government, a program which will rewin the confidence and the support of working class and middle-class Australians.
“To the people who go to work everyday in small businesses, the farmers and pensioners, we promise to put fairness back into the centre of national life and to fight inequality all the way to the next election.”
Updated
Bill Shorten:
Actually, what a super Saturday night it is … we’ve had everything thrown at us in the last 10 weeks. We’ve come through it in pretty good shape, I think. It’s been a tough campaign, it’s had ups and downs. But tonight we’ve had two great wins already and I’m hearing pretty good things from Western Australia as well. Four from four.
You know one thing about the Labor party which our critics and enemies have underestimated all the time, when our critics write us off in the media, when our opponents write us down and write off our vision for Australia, you can always count upon the rank and file of the Labor movement, trade unionists and ALP members.
You can count on them to put your shoulder to the wheel. The truth about politics is, it isn’t how you’re going when you’re going well, it’s when you’ve got a hard fight ahead of you, when you get up and dust yourself up and you go hard. That is what I think about the rank and file of our mighty Labor movement.”
Updated
Bill Shorten claims victory in Longman and Braddon
“What a great night for the Labor party, what a great night for Labor women candidates” Bill Shorten says.
At the same time, Brett Whiteley is conceding in Braddon.
Updated
Ben Smee, who is holding the fort for us on the ground in Longman, says Ali France will be front and centre at this victory lap:
A not so subtle message to Peter Dutton, me thinks,” he says.
Updated
Bill Shorten has arrived at Caboolture and the crowd is going nuts
“Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill,” they are chanting.
Trevor Ruthenberg is acknowledging the “medal mix up”.
I think most Australians know my service history. (LAUGHTER) I hold the men and women of the ADF and returned servicemen in the highest esteem and I would never knowingly or deliberately do anything to offend them. (APPLAUSE) ... The support and understanding I received from local RSLs, veterans and serving personnel in that difficult week last week was truly, greatly appreciated,” he said.
“And also I’d like to thank the prime minister. I have witnessed and been the beneficiary of all the character traits you would hope for in a prime minister. He truly cares about our community. He’s deeply engaged with what happens locally and he’s genuinely interested in the lives and work of the people in our community
“… I made an embarrassing mistake and he not only stood by me, he stood up for me. Let me tell you, he’s standing up for people in our area.”
Malcolm Turnbull is not there. But Ruthenberg, getting emotional, says he takes responsibility for the result.
Updated
“Thank you, that was a warm welcome, I think I’ll remember that one for a while,” Trevor Ruthenberg says, adding that he has called Susan Lamb and congratulated her on her win.
“This is a strange election in that while I have lost, the community will still benefit from the commitments I have been able to secure from the prime minister and his team of ministers and for that, I will be forever grateful.
“Listen, work, deliver – we did all three.”
Updated
Susan Lamb has won the Longman by-election! Congratulations to Susan for a hard-fought win. The residents of Longman have chosen money for hospitals not banks. We're sending Susan to Canberra to hold Turnbull to account, and fight the LNP's billions in handouts to the banks. pic.twitter.com/tIaz3LMW51
— Queensland Labor (@QLDLabor) July 28, 2018
Trevor Ruthernberg concedes
‘Big Trev’ is up at Longman, next to James McGrath and is conceding the seat to Labor.
Updated
So what are you going to hear about in the next few days?
Single seat polls are bupkis
Labor’s policy differences have momentum
Leadership talk from the Anthony Albanese camp will be given a bit of a shush
Malcolm Turnbull will be under pressure
Class warfare works
Tony Abbott and co will be on the attack
You’ll also hear about how hard it is for government’s to win opposition seats at byelections (given the last time was in 1920)
That the byelection swing was contained to normal swings
That Labor and the unions outspent the government and that made it almost impossible.
The problem with those last three points (which are already starting to emerge from conservative camps) is that for the past couple of weeks, all we have heard from the government on the record and off, is how much pressure Shorten was under, how they were quietly confident, and how despite Labor’s “desperate” spend, they were losing.
Well, the night has spoken for itself.
Updated
Again, yup
Labor also about to call Braddon I'm told @AmyRemeikis #SuperSaturday #auspol
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) July 28, 2018
My phone is going absolutely nuts.
I know that you sometimes get sick about how much I harp on about Queensland, but the main reason is because it is the state to win at the next election: win Queensland and you win government. Or, as Murray Watt is fond of saying, the path to Canberra runs through Queensland.
If you take Labor’s primary result – which is about 42% at the moment – in Longman, and you apply that to the rest of the state, well, Bill Shorten will be sauntering in to the prime ministerial wing with a very comfortable majority.
And yes, swings are rarely uniform, but if Labor is on the move in Queensland (and they did just win the state election), then the Liberals are not going to have the greatest night sleep tonight.
Updated
Bill Shorten and Susan Lamb are headed to the Caboolture RSL, where they will officially call Longman and Braddon for Labor.
You thought Shorten was happy when Kristina Keneally ate into John Alexander’s vote in Bennelong – just wait until you see him tonight.
Smashed it, Susan! ♥️ #Longman #auspol #weloveourLamb @SusanLambALP pic.twitter.com/sS5jSnP4Oe
— Terri Butler MP (@terrimbutler) July 28, 2018
Updated
There are still eight booths to be counted … but the LNP vote just keeps dropping.
Now down 10.09%
That sound you hear is Peter Dutton’s jaw clenching.
Updated
Yup
I'm told Labor is preparing to claim Longman @AmyRemeikis #SuperSaturday #auspol
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) July 28, 2018
Rebehka Sharkie has taken to the stage to give her victory speech:
“It has been a marathon of a campaign, but we did this tonight, we did it, because of you,” she tells the room, before adding that you don’t need “huge wads of money” to win – that you need “people who are compassionate, people who care”, and that was proven tonight.
“I was crushed the day I resigned, but today was sweet,” she says.
Updated
For those who hated the “Americanism” of the super Saturday moniker, some other options for you:
1 by election = So So Saturday
— Chris O'Brien (@COBrienBris) July 28, 2018
2 = Special Saturday
3 = Sock It To Me Saturday
4 = Splendid Saturday
5 = #SuperSaturday
Updated
Ben Smee at Caboolture backs up what Labor is telling us:
One Nation preferences in Longman flowing 65-35 in favour of LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg (as per the how-to-votes). That fact should settle any Labor nerves about the large number of pre-poll votes yet to be counted.”
Updated
Georgina Downer says she has called Rebekha Sharkie and has congratulated her on her win and that she “absolutely respects” the decision Mayo has made.
Liberal insiders have said that Downer’s campaign was a two-prong approach, with the aim being a win at the next general election.
But with Sharkie having won with a 9.3% swing - and the Liberal party vote having dropped by just over 1% that is going to be even harder.
Updated
Labor confident of Longman victory
“No doubts here,” Party HQ is telling me.
And they would know. Call it.
Georgina Downer concedes in Mayo
Georgina Downer is about to give her concession speech
Longman update with 32 of the 40 booths counted
Susan Lamb – 42.23%
Trevor Ruthenberg – 26%
One Nation – 14.88%
You can see why Labor is confident. It is pretty close, and we might see some change with the postal votes (which usually go conservative) but it is looking good.
Updated
Labor is celebrating the best federal result it has had in Bribie since 2007.
The sparkling is popping.
I don’t think I have ever heard Christopher Pyne sound as flat and sad as he does right now on Sky.
Updated
Labor sources on the ground are telling me that they have won all the Bribie booths, which is almost unprecedented for Labor in Longman.
That is pretty much game, set and match.
And on the swing – with Labor picking up another 4.47% and the LNP down almost 10% – Peter Dutton would be gone if that was replicated in Dickson.
Updated
And in Braddon:
Empty seats galore at the @brettwhiteley60 by-election party in #braddon just as many media as Liberal Party faithful @SBSNews pic.twitter.com/J0fTyWyOM5
— Marija Zivic (@marija_ziv) July 28, 2018
Updated
Meanwhile, in Mayo:
Rebekha Sharkie supporters serenade the successful candidate in Mount Barker #ausvotes #mayovotes pic.twitter.com/OKNTlMT984
— casey briggs (@CaseyBriggs) July 28, 2018
Updated
For anyone with a hankering to know – polls have just closed in WA.
Updated
Now, back to that commentary.
We have heard a lot (A LOT) about what these results would mean for Bill Shorten. Malcolm Turnbull a few weeks ago made it clear that Longman and Braddon was a contest between himself and the opposition leader.
Turnbull hosed down that in the last couple of weeks, which was notable.
But now that Shorten and Labor’s strategy has paid off – with dividends – attention is going to turn to Turnbull and what it means for his leadership future.
Tony Abbott must be the happiest man in Australia right now.
There is no way to look at Longman – where Mal Brough once won 51% of the primary vote and where the LNP is sitting now at around 25% – without repercussions. And I say that, pointing you to what happened in 2016, with Wyatt Roy and the billboard.
Particularly, if you are Peter Dutton. His seat is right next door, has a similar constituency and is very much on the radar.
Given how powerful Dutton is in this government and the party room, there are some very, very uncomfortable conversations in Turnbull’s future.
Updated
Back at the Caboolture RSL and Ben Smee says:
“We’er hearing here that Labor thinks it has won the remaining booths - Ningi, Kallangur, Caboolture East.”
Which would just about call it.
Look, it is looking like Susan Lamb has won Longman, which means commentary at the parties is turning to what went wrong for the government - and Labor just keeps pointing to Malcolm Turnbull.
“There has been a big swing against the LNP here, and he can’t disown that,” a lead campaigner is telling me.
It is not enough that they are claiming victory, as yet.
But they are feeling good. Really, really good.
Anthony Green has called Longman for Labor
He is basing that on his magic formula, and I can’t argue with that.
We’ve been heading down that path - but I just want to see a few more booths before I can say for sure.
Bribie Island intel
So, on the Bribie booths we have been looking at, we have some figures from the Woorim booth (one of the bigger ones)
Of the 580 votes there, Susan Lamb has won 238 - 305 with preferences and Trevor Ruthernberg has 192 - 244 with preferences.
That’s good news for Labor.
And so far - with just over 30% of the vote counted in Longman - that campaign is paying off.
The LNP is looking at a 9.3% drop.
That gives Susan Lamb a path to victory. It would take a pretty big upset at this time for Labor to lose this.
We need to wait for the remaining booths to fill in the details, but the big picture is very clear - all three of the MPs who faced serious challenges have been re-elected, seemingly with increased majorities.
Labor’s Justine Keay is up 0.3% off 48/71 in Braddon, whole her colleague Susan Lamb is up 3.2% off 15/40 booths in Longman.
Sharkie is up 3% after 26/76 booths in Mayo.
There will be time later to discuss the polls in these three seats. The repeated polls in Mayo did a decent job of predicting a strong vote for Sharkie, but overestimated the LNP vote in Longman.
Inside Labor's Longman ground campaign
More from Labor sources in Longman:
“I don’t think the Liberals saw the field campaign coming - we would have done more doorknocking today, then the LNP would have done all campaign”.
And those figures?
73,180 phone calls
35,870 door knocks
I’m being told that’s the biggest field effort for a single seat, ever. They also think today will be the biggest day campaign ever, with more than 1000 calls and doorknocks today, alone.
Labor has always had a better ground campaign. It’s why they were pissed when six pre-polling booths were opened up - it took volunteers from the ground and sent them to the booths.
But still. I can think of a few people in Labor HQ - and United Voice - who won’t be paying for a drink for a while.
Labor increasingly confident in Longman.
The Susan Lamb campaign party has just heard about swings to Labor on Bribie Island, an LNP stronghold with a large community of retirees.
Labor says they’ve won two Bribie Island booths, Bellara and Bongaree.
“The message to Malcolm Turnbull is you can’t scare the pensioners,” rings out over the loudspeaker.
Followed by ... “Big Trev, you’re a big flop”.
Updated
Labor is feeling pretty good in Longman (not good enough to call it, but good) and they are pointing to their research showing “Malcolm Turnbull should not have campaigned here”
“He came here over eight weeks (five times) and we got 10 points on the back of that),” one source is saying.
Christopher Pyne just said on the Sky panel that he has heard that the Bribie Island pre-poll booth (one of the biggest in Longman) saw about 70% of votes go to One Nation.
If true, that is a surprise. Bribie, also known as God’s waiting room, is a very big boomer community which has mostly gone to the Liberals in the past. That would suggest that those One Nation votes would go back to the Liberal party (one of the reasons I am not confident in calling Longman just yet) but you never know with One Nation voters.
For what it is worth, the Malcolm Turnbull vs Boomer event occurred:
Well I don’t think that quite went to plan for @TurnbullMalcolm at Bribie Island Hotel #SuperSaturday pic.twitter.com/qAyy2JZhkg
— Rosie Lewis (@rosieslewis) July 27, 2018
Poll refresher
What have the polls said?
We’ve had a rush of local seat polls in these byelections – by my count there’s at least 15 seat polls. Most have been commissioned by media outlets, with a handful published by groups like the Australia Institute and the Australian Forest Products Association.
The polls suggest that Braddon and Longman are both very close, while Rebekha Sharkie has a sizeable lead in Mayo.
Four polls in Braddon have ranged from 52% two-party-preferred for Labor to 54% for the Liberal party. Six polls in Longman have ranged from a 50-50 tie to 53-47 to the LNP.
Sharkie’s lead in the four Mayo polls has ranged from 58% two-candidate-preferred up to 62%.
We’ve also had one Galaxy poll of Fremantle putting Labor on 66% to the Greens’ 34% after preferences.
We should be careful to not put too much weight in these polls – even repeated polls predicting a close outcome can be off. We saw four polls each in Bass and Macarthur at the 2016 election which predicted extremely close results, and Labor then won each seat by 6% to 8%.
How might One Nation preferences flow?
We’re expecting One Nation to be a big factor in Longman. The party polled 9.4% in Longman in 2016, and some polls have predicted a vote of over 20%. That won’t be enough to win, but would make their preferences crucial to the outcome.
One Nation preferences in 2016 didn’t tend to flow strongly to either major party. Over most of Queensland, their preferences slightly favoured the Liberal National party, but in Longman 56.5% of One Nation preferences ended up with the Labor candidate.
Of course, there’s a difference between what a party recommends and what their voters do. One Nation recommended a preference to Labor in Longman in 2016, but it seems unlikely that many voters would have seen a One Nation how-to-vote. It will be much easier to cover the booths in a byelection, and One Nation has decided to recommend preferences to the LNP. This could lead to a stronger preference flow to the LNP, but One Nation voters are not known for strong preference discipline.
There’s also a suspicion that many One Nation voters may simply preference the party that they would have otherwise considered voting for, regardless of their party’s recommendations. One Nation’s vote in 2016 was highest in the most Labor-friendly part of Longman. It may be that a surge in One Nation primary votes doesn’t do much to shift the two-party-preferred count.
So back to Longman (I am sorry WA, I sort of forgot all about Fremantle and Perth, but really – it is a one-horse race there)
Susan Lamb – 40.54%
Trevor Ruthernberg – 27.9%
One Nation – 15.38
That is with 16 of the 40 booths counted.
The big story here is the swing to Labor on the primary vote (so far). And before anyone starts yelling at me, I have maintained this whole time that polling of single seats is very difficult (which is why, as Katharine Murphy mentioned in her piece today) neither of the major political parties put too many resources into research polling.
Updated
Rebekha Sharkie has picked up some Liberal votes – but the big swing has come from Labor.
Labor sources told me at the time they were only running in Mayo to help Sharkie win, so I don’t think they are going to be too sad at that result.
Updated
Rebekha Sharkie wins Mayo
The Downer dynasty, as predicted, has not been enough to win Mayo.
Rebekha Sharkie, who could give the whole parliament a lesson on how to be an excellent local member, has won it – with about a 9% swing.
Updated
Ben Smee has just told me that Ali France, who is Labor’s candidate in Dickson, Peter Dutton’s seat has rocked up to the Caboolture party.
You may remember from the feature I did not so long ago that Labor was looking at Longman as a test for the general election - win Longman on these campaign tactics, which, as several campaign heads told me was all based on class warfare - and then you have a pretty good shot in Dickson and Petrie.
Queensland is shaping as one of the most important states in the coming election. It has about 10 seats up for grabs on current predictions. Labor only needs two more for a win. It’s why WA is so important as well - there are quite a few Liberal MPs in trouble in the west.
We are all being a little more cautious with Longman - the One Nation candidate, Matthew Stephen is polling at around 15% at the moment.
That is not quite enough to give Trevor Ruthernberg the bump he needs to win, but it makes it close.
Labor appears to have grown its primary vote (I told you single seat byelection polls were often bupkis) but it doesn’t mean the party has won it as yet. Just that things are looking good.
Murph is hearing the same intel as me:
Labor folks also sounding hopeful in Longman @AmyRemeikis #auspol #SuperSaturday
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) July 28, 2018
Over at the Caboolture RSL, my colleague Ben Smee, who I bet is not wearing a million layers of clothing, given how many smug posts my Queensland friends were sending me today has confirmed the carpet is quite the sight to behold.
He’s also just told me a Labor volunteer is now doing the Walk Like An Egyptian dance - so it is safe to say, they are feeling pretty good up there right now.
In Longman, where 12 of 40 booths have been counted
Susan Lamb is ahead 41.83% to Trevor Ruthernberg’s 26.61%
Antony Green calls Braddon for Labor
And it’s not just me – the expert is also looking at Braddon and calling it for Labor
BREAKING: @AntonyGreenABC calls Braddon for the ALP. pic.twitter.com/a0jcfm2501
— Michael Rowland (@mjrowland68) July 28, 2018
That’s based on 23 of 74 polling places – which is about a third – and his formula for the past 25 years has been pretty spot on.
Updated
So far in Braddon, Justine Keay has about 55% of the vote on the two-party preferred measure.
Craig Garland, the independent, who no one outside of Tasmania has heard of, until he came pretty close to victory at the recent state election, shook up the local salmon industry, and then became the target of Eric Abetz when an old charge turned up, is proving absolutely crucial here.
And I am confident to all but call it – he has handed Braddon back to Labor.
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For what it’s worth, my money is on Bill Shorten turning up to the Caboolture RSL
(which, from memory, has some quite spectacular carpet)
The big question at the Caboolture RSL is whether Bill Shorten will turn up tonight.
He’s in town. But there’s a suggestion he might stay away if the result is unclear tonight.
The mood here is, though, increasingly positive.
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That sound you hear, according to a Labor secret squirrel at the Longman party, is a “quietly confident” champagne cork going off.
But they want me to stress – they are “optimistic, but uncertain”
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So, tl;dr
Justine Keay will hold Braddon if Craig Garland’s preferences keep flowing her way.
Susan Lamb will hold Longman if the increase in primary vote we are seeing keeps up that pace.
Still quite a bit to go so far.
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Labor is performing well so far in Braddon and Longman.
We have 12 booths reporting preferences in Braddon, and Labor’s Justine Keay is up 2.1%.
There’s also a large 16% primary vote for independent fisherman candidate Craig Garland, which has held up even with one third of booths reporting, but we’d expect that vote to drop a bit as the more urban booths report.
We don’t have any two-party-preferred votes in Longman, but we do have primary votes from six booths. This sample has Labor’s Susan Lamb up 6.4%, while the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg is down 10.1%.
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And in Braddon:
25 of 71 polling places returned in Braddon: the independent Garland has more than 16% of the vote #auspol #SuperSaturday @AmyRemeikis
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) July 28, 2018
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Wayne Swan is at Caboolture (of course) and the volunteers behind him are going nuts as the ABC crosses to him.
He says that if Labor’s primary vote hovers around 40% then that’s not only a swing, it could offset the One Nation preference vulnerability.
You have to understand that at the last election our primary vote was 35. We only won because of those One Nation preferences. If we didn’t get those preferences last time we would have been on 48%. We have to get a solid swing on the primary vote to win the seat.”
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Results are starting to roll in from the Caboolture booth – that is typically a Labor booth – and Susan Lamb has 600 votes to Trevor Ruthernberg’s 383 (that is first preferences).
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Pauline Hanson, who is on a UK cruise, would be able to follow along with tonight’s shenanigans – it is just before 10am in her part of the world.
One of my favourite moments this election campaign has been when Hanson’s advisor referred to the cardboard cutouts of the One Nation leader which have been dotted around Longman polling booths since Friday, as almost as good as the real thing.
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Just further to Ben’s post, United Voice not only volunteered for Susan Lamb’s campaign – they ran it. The left have the numbers in Queensland, which has made national conference fun, while also having an influence on the state parliament – premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is from the right, but her faction doesn’t have control.
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Susan Lamb’s byelection party has a healthy number of volunteers from the United Voice union.
UV is rapidly increasing its influence within Labor in Queensland. The party now has seven former members who are state MPs, including a few in the state cabinet. They’re sometimes jokingly referred to as their own wing of the party.
Lamb had been, until her resignation, the lone Queensland federal MP aligned with the leftwing union.
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So, keeping in mind that the equivalent of one second of an Oscar speech has been counted so far, my Queensland contacts must have hit the beers, because the messages are starting to roll through.
So far, both the LNP and Labor are saying the same thing - it is close. Labor feels sort of OK, and so does the LNP.
“It’s amazing that we are even in this race, so that’s a victory right there,” one LNP source has just messaged me.
To which I told them, and now you, that Longman is a little different to the usual byelection, in that it is not really a Labor seat to start with.
Wyatt Roy lost it in 2016 not because everyone suddenly decided they wanted to support Labor, but because Longman was annoyed Tony Abbott had been dumped – and that Roy had played such a huge role in that.
In a stroke of genius, one of the unions popped a giant photo of Roy and Malcolm Turnbull happily posing together at the GQ awards on a billboard truck and drove it around Longman for the last weeks of the campaign.
It worked. A hell of a lot of One Nation votes flowed to Labor and Susan Lamb won it by 0.7%.
But that doesn’t mean it’s a Labor seat. No matter the result tonight, the general election is going to be a hell of a fight as well.
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History of Mayo
Mayo has traditionally been held by the Liberal party, but has had a tendency to flirt with minor parties of the centre and left on multiple occasions
The seat was created in 1984 and was won that year by Alexander Downer – son of a Menzies government minister and grandson of a colonial premier. Downer held the seat for the next 24 years, but faced strong challenges from the Democrats in 1990 and 1998.
Downer retired in 2008, and the Greens made a strong challenge for the seat at the subsequent byelection, polling 47% after preferences, but losing to Jamie Briggs. Briggs was re-elected twice and then famously lost in 2016 to the Nick Xenophon Team’s Rebekha Sharkie.
Geography of Mayo
Mayo is a vast seat covering areas to the south and east of Adelaide. The seat covers most of the Adelaide Hills, the Fleurieu peninsula and Kangaroo Island. Major towns in the seat include Mount Barker and Victor Harbor. While the seat is large, a majority of the seat’s population lies in a spine at the north-eastern end of the seat in the Adelaide Hills and Mount Barker.
Sharkie won most booths in the electorate in 2016, but does particularly well in Mount Barker.
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History of Braddon
The seat of Braddon has effectively existed in a similar form to its current shape since 1903, although it was called “Darwin” until 1955.
The seat has tended to be very marginal, if with a slight lean towards Labor. Labor’s Sid Sidebottom won the seat in 1998 and held it until 2004, when Labor lost both of the northern Tasmanian seats in a backlash against Mark Latham’s forestry policy. He made a comeback three years later in 2007, and held the seat until 2013.
Brett Whiteley, who is recontesting Braddon as the Liberal candidate, held the seat for one term before losing to Justine Keay in 2016.
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Geography of Braddon
Braddon covers the north-western corner of Tasmania, as well as the whole west coast. There are very few people living along the west coast, so most of the seat’s population lies on the north coast of the electorate. The bigger towns include Burnie, Devonport and Ulverstone.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in most urban booths in Burnie, Devonport and Ulverstone, while the Liberal party tended to win most rural booths.
History of Longman
Longman is a marginal seat, but has tended to favour the LNP. The seat was held by Mal Brough throughout the Howard government, but he lost in 2007 to Labor’s Jon Sullivan.
Sullivan lost three years later to 20-year-old Wyatt Roy, who held the seat from 2010 to 2016.
Roy lost in 2016 to Susan Lamb with a swing of 7.7%, well above the average for marginal seats in Queensland.
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Geography of Longman
Longman covers towns on the urban fringe of Brisbane covering the space between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast. It’s biggest centre is Caboolture, and it also covers Morayfield, Burpengary and a bunch of smaller towns, as well as Bribie Island.
There was a big difference in the 2016 vote across Longman. Labor won large majorities in the booths around Caboolture, with 60% or more of the two-party-preferred vote in every booth in the area. Labor won narrow majorities in the booths at the southern edge of the electorate. The LNP won a majority of the vote in the rural towns in the north-west of the seat, as well as those booths on Bribie Island or close to it.
Having a look at pre-poll, those six booths at Longman were needed – about 40% of voters have already hit the polls before today, according to the AEC.
That is part of a wider trend – pre-poll once and you end up doing it again and again and telling everyone how great it is – and then the pre-poll grows.
Braddon has had about 25% of voters head to the polls early.
You’ll find that data here.
Update – we have seen 0.4% of votes counted in Braddon.
Beyonce give me strength.
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Woo! There have been about 200 votes counted.
What a time to be alive.
Status – we still know nothing.
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We’re at the point of the night where no one actually has anything to say. So we are hearing a lot of predictions and recapping, but nothing we haven’t actually heard before.
For the record, the consensus seems to be
Mayo – Rebekha Sharkie, Centre Alliance
Braddon – shrug emoji
Longman – shrug emoji
Fremantle/Perth – still voting, but Labor
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So the panels are up and running – and Liberal Trent Zimmerman has just told the ABC he believes the night is a “toss of the coin”.
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With polls closed, hit us up with your predictions in the comments - who is going to win and where?
The polls have closed in Longman and Braddon.
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Meanwhile, in Longman:
Found a cardboard cut-out. Labor made an addition though. pic.twitter.com/AZeqkKJ9ur
— Josh Taylor (@joshgnosis) July 28, 2018
We’ll be bringing you the seats as they are updated, but for those who just can’t get enough raw data, you can follow along with the AEC:
Progressive results for the #2018byelections will be provided via our tally rooms at https://t.co/kDXRrq4qqc as they become available after polls close at 6pm local time. #auspol
— AEC (@AusElectoralCom) July 28, 2018
Labor volunteers are very cautious but positive about Susan Lamb’s chances in Longman.
The result be shaped by the strength of the One Nation vote and how strongly preferences then flow to the LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg.
One booth worker says he thinks the One Nation vote has been down compared the Queensland state election in November.
Labor also feel the LNP primary vote will be diminished.
The One Nation vote in Longman is a fairly interesting side story.
Polls have candidate Matthew Stephen with about 15% of the primary vote.
That might seem like a solid improvement from the 9.4% One Nation polled in Longman in 2016.
But in corresponding seats at the 2017 Queensland election, Pauline Hanson’s party was polling 22% to 25%. The party’s weakest individual booth within the boundaries of Longman was 18%.
That’s worth keeping in mind when the results graphics show a swing to the party.
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In a fun byelection fact, neither Brett Whitely or Trevor Ruthernberg, the government candidates for Braddon or Longman could vote for themselves today - as they live just outside the electorate. Whitely was asked about this:
JOURNALIST:
Are you sad you can’t add to your vote by voting for yourself?
BRETT WHITELEY:
Look, I’m out supporting all my volunteers today. I’m in a number of booths today with the Prime Minister, helping to support the team, helping to support the ideal situation, which will be an election of Brett Whiteley as the next member for Braddon.
The polls close in less than 30 minutes.
Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull started the day in Braddon, but Shorten has ended it in Longman. Which led to this exchange with a Tassie reporter today:
JOURNALIST: Mr Shorten, yourself and the prime minister have spent the morning in Braddon, I’m assuming you’ll be up to Longman this afternoon, does that mean that Longman is more important than Braddon to you both?
SHORTEN: Well, I guess you can’t win. If I started in Brisbane you people might say should have started in Tassie.
JOURNALIST: I’m a Tasmanian reporter, what am I supposed to ask?
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Good evening and welcome to super Saturday
It’s D-day, as the byelections in Longman, Braddon, Mayo, Fremantle and Perth are decided.
While the Western Australia elections have been largely ignored, given the Liberal party decided not to contest them, Queensland and Tasmania have received more than their fair share of attention.
Meanwhile, Mayo in South Australia, which was meant to be Georgina Downer’s entree into politics, has turned out to be a way bigger battle than the Liberal party was prepared for, with Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie expected to retain it.
Which means all eyes are on Longman and Braddon, where we have NO idea what will happen.
Not only are single seats notoriously difficult to poll, byelections usually make it impossible. The good burghers of Longman and Braddon are sick to death of the robocalls and phonecalls, surveys, journalists and politicians and their volunteers accosting them in the streets, shopping centres – and their homes – so getting an adequate picture of what is going on, is a pretty hard task.
Then throw in absenteeism – voter turnout at byelections is usually lower than usual – and people on holidays, and boom: it’s a recipe for a big ole mess.
But which way Longman and Braddon voters go will also determine what the next few months of politics looks like across the nation. If it goes against Labor, you can expect leadership tensions to boil over. If it goes against the government, you can expect any general election talk to be put off until next year.
So there is a lot riding on tonight. And that’s if we even get a result tonight!
But fear not – we will be with you until the counting stops. The early turnout for Longman and Braddon at pre-poll was pretty significant – there were six pre-poll booths in Longman alone – so if the government is ahead at the end of the night, that is very bad news for Labor, given postals usually go the conservative side’s way.
And we also don’t know how One Nation votes will play out.
There’s a lot to take in tonight. So I hope you have your beverage of choice and are settled somewhere comfortable. You can reach me at @amyremeikis on Twitter, or in the comment section, and there will be some behind the scenes stuff at @pyjamapolitics on Instagram. Katharine Murphy, Ben Raue and Ben Smee will also be making guest appearances.
Ready?
Let’s get into it.
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