Voters will soon go to the polls in five federal byelections, four triggered by the sitting member resigning due to problems with dual citizenship. The fifth is because of the resignation of the Labor member for Perth Tim Hammond, to spend more time with his family.
The seats are scattered across four states and are varied – some are inner suburban and the others outer suburban or rural.
All five are held by first-term, non-government MPs, on reasonably small margins, the largest being Josh Wilson’s Fremantle seat on 7.5%. The smallest is Susan Lamb’s Queensland seat on just 0.8%.
Braddon, Justine Keay, Labor
Braddon covers the north-western corner of Tasmania, including Devonport and Burnie. It was won in 2016 by Labor’s Justine Keay, who holds it by a 2.2% margin. It’s a large, decentralised electorate, and has a recent history of flipping back and forth between the major parties, but has more often elected Labor MPs. The Liberal party interrupted Labor’s hold on the seat in 2004 and 2013, and has done very well in this electorate at the last two Tasmanian state elections, There is a possibility that Keay, who is expected to run again, could lose.
Fremantle, Josh Wilson, Labor
Fremantle covers the south-eastern suburbs of Perth. This seat has been in Labor’s hands for more than 80years. Josh Wilson won it in 2016 with a 7.5% margin. He was a last-minute choice after the previous Labor candidate withdrew.
The suburb of Fremantle is a very strong area for the Greens, but the electorate includes other areas that are much less friendly to them. The party polled 17.7% in Fremantle in 2016, thanks to a very high vote in the northern end of the seat, but the south of the seat is not as affable. This seat will probably stay with Labor, particularly in the absence of a Liberal candidate.
Longman, Susan Lamb, Labor
Longman is an outer suburban seat on the northern fringe of Brisbane, covering Caboolture, Morayfield and the surrounding areas between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast. Susan Lamb won the seat off the LNP’s Wyatt Roy in 2013 with a 0.8% margin. She benefited from a strong flow of preferences from One Nation, but this is unlikely to happen at the byelection.This seat is a strong area for One Nation, which polled 9.4% in 2016. The party has announced a candidate.
Mayo, Rebekha Sharkie, Centre Alliance
Mayo covers the Adelaide Hills and rural areas to the south of Adelaide, as well as Kangaroo Island. The seat was long held by the Liberal party: first by Alexander Downer, and then Jamie Briggs from 2008 to 2016. The electorate has often given a strong vote to minor parties, and the Democrats and Greens have come close to winning.
The Nick Xenophon Team’s Rebekha Sharkie defeated Briggs in 2016, holding the seat with a 5% margin. Sharkie’s party has recently been renamed the Centre Alliance to reflect Nick Xenophon’s departure from elected office. It remains to be seen whether his absence (both as a candidate and in the party’s name) will make Sharkie’s re-election more difficult.
Perth, Tim Hammond, Labor
Perth covers the central suburbs of Perth, and was won in 2016 by Labor’s Tim Hammond by a 3.3% margin. Hammond is the only one of the sitting MPs to not be forced out by citizenship problems. He retired for family reasons, so this will be the only seat without an incumbent MP running.
There have been three retirements in this seat in the last five years. Stephen Smith stepped down in 2013, and Alannah MacTiernan retired in 2016 after only one term. Perth is a marginal seat, but the Liberal party has chosen to not stand here. It’s also quite a strong area for the Greens, which polled more than 17% in 2016.
