Hurricanes v Brumbies
Most of the experts have already written off the Brumbies for the title due to having to travel to Cape Town and then back to Wellington in the last week. The bookies have them at 8-1 for the title, and 3-1 to get the past the Hurricanes in the first semi. It’s a harsh assessment of the ACT team’s chances. Indeed, the Brumbies will be up against a ruthless attacking side stacked with in-form All Blacks. And winger Henry Speight’s five-week suspension won’t help, given he was to have marked rampaging All Blacks behemoth Julian Savea.
However, as good as the Hurricanes’ backline is – and more so now with Beauden Barrett back from injury at fly-half – one suspects the tight forwards aren’t quite at the same level, particularly the front row of Ben Franks, Dane Coles, and Reggie Goodes. Coles is the incumbent All Black hooker, incredibly mobile for a front-rower and with a wonderful pair of hands. But how will he, Franks and Goodes fare against a Wallabies scrummaging front row of Scott Sio, Stephen Moore, and Ben Alexander? And especially if the Brumbies conclude they have to slow the game down with endless scrums and line-outs. Can the Hurricanes cope with the Brumbies’ line-out drives and scrum? Or will the Wellingtonians run amok in the backs to make set-piece forward play an afterthought?
Indeed, this could be a very interesting game from a tactical point of view. The Hurricanes do have weaknesses up front, and a shrewd coach like Stephen Larkham may have cooked up a plan to shut the Hurricanes down in the forwards, and then line-speed the backs out of time and space. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, won’t change one iota from what we have seen all season long: Attack from all parts, with Barrett perhaps putting in cross-field kicks for Savea to contest against Speight’s inexperienced replacement, Lausii Taliauli. This semi has been talked up as a potentially free-flowing affair with a decisive home win. But it could be a lot closer than many people think.
Players to watch
The Hurricanes loose trio of Victor Vito, Ardie Savea and Brad Shields up against David Pocock, Scott Fardy and Ita Vaea. Both sets of loosies are superb and could cancel each other out. Savea will be more dangerous than usual after missing selection for the first All Blacks squad. He has the game to prove the selectors wrong. Can Beauden Barrett find top form straight away after an injury lay-off? It could be long evening for the Brumbies if he does. Will Lausii Taliauli contain Julian Savea, or will he end up spread-eagled roadkill?
Waratahs v Highlanders
The Waratahs are favoured as defending champs with home ground advantage. But who would dare bet against the Highlanders? The South Islanders have beaten the Tahs already this year and after last week’s demolition of the Chiefs, they look nigh on unstoppable – an irresistible force with winning momentum whereas the defending champs are coming off a two-week lay-off.
The Waratahs have been inconsistent this season, brilliant one week, average the next. Just how much a week off affects them is anyone’s guess. Will they be underdone against a team of true believers convinced they have a date with destiny with a maiden title? The Tahs are chasing a dream too – the first Australian side to win back-to-back Super titles. And, to their credit, as inconsistent as they have been, they have nonetheless found a way to get up for the big matches this season – against the Hurricanes, the Brumbies twice, and the Crusaders. It’s tempting to say the Waratahs forwards have an edge. But the Highlanders no-name pack have been written off from round one, yet continue to play above themselves. They look supremely fit too, maybe even a shade more than the Tahs who are no slouches either. The second semi could go down to the wire with a special play by an x-factor player determining the outcome. The problem for the Waratahs, though, is the two players who best fit that description happen to be the Smiths, Aaron and Ben, for the Highlanders.
Players to watch
Aaron Smith, the undisputed best half-back in the world is in imperious form. So much so, the Highlanders wouldn’t have beaten the Chiefs last week were it not for him. Will the small man’s rich vein of form continue? And how will opposite Wallabies incumbent Nick Phipps respond? Highlanders and All Blacks second-string centre Malakai Fekitoa made Israel Folau look second-rate when the Highlanders beat the Tahs 26-19 in round five with two pilfers, including one brazen pickpocketing, resulting in a Highlanders try 60 metres upfield. Folau will no doubt be targeted again. Will he fare any better second time around? And, finally, Michael Hooper. With Pocock in fine fettle, Hooper is running out of time convince Wallabies coach Michael Cheika he ought to retain the Wallabies openside flanker position at the World Cup. He’ll need to play out of his skin.
Fixture details
Hurricanes v Brumbies: Saturday June 27, 5.35pm (AEDT)
Waratahs v Highlanders: Saturday June 27, 7.55pm (AEDT) – join Richard Gadsby for Guardian Australia’s liveblog of the game in Sydney from 7:10pm.
