A massive 55-metre penalty goal in swirling wind after the siren kept the Brumbies on top of the Super Rugby AU table, but for how much longer? Ryan Lonergan’s long-range match-winner against the Melbourne Rebels in Canberra could either have been a sign of a champion team finding a way to prevail or an indication the Brumbies have plateaued.
The Brumbies have won the Super Rugby Australian conference title or the Super Rugby AU competition in four of the last five years to stake a strong claim as Australia’s premier provincial team. But the Brumbies’ pre-eminence in Australia is being challenged by a rising Queensland Reds side, who have been painstakingly developed over the last four years by head coach Brad Thorn.
The Brumbies just managed to beat an injury-hit Reds 28-23 in the Super Rugby AU final last year, but the Queenslanders will be looking to announce their time has arrived when they take on the defending champions in Canberra on Saturday night.
While the Brumbies focused on retaining as much of their 2020 championship-winning squad as possible, the Reds made a recruiting coup with the signing of rugby league convert Suliasi Vunivalu. That one signing has the potential to make all the difference but the form guide does not separate the Brumbies and the Reds too much so far this season.
Both teams have achieved record wins against the struggling NSW Waratahs, while they eked out narrow victories against the under-strength Rebels. Like they did against the Reds in Brisbane, the Rebels put the Brumbies under enormous pressure by slowing down the ball and employing aggressive defence, while patiently accumulating points from the boot of five-eighth Matt Toomua.
The young and ambitious Reds are a different proposition, possessing attacking firepower that the Brumbies have not had to deal with so far this season. The Rebels had Marika Koroibete, but the Reds have attacking threats all across the backline from livewire halfback Tate McDermott to Filipo Daugunu on the wing.
They have the ability to counter-attack from deep in their own territory, probe the blindside side with short interchange passing and use the width of the field. And they have a forward pack that is capable of providing front-foot ball and using the ball. In other words, they can be a handful when directed properly.
But do the Reds have the discipline to knock the well-drilled Brumbies off their pedestal? They certainly did not in the final last year. A little older, a little wiser maybe. If the Reds play an ensemble game, they will need to be precise with their passing. One way or another the Brumbies will not allow unforced errors to go unpunished.
The colour red suits the Queenslanders. They are full of passion – maybe too much at times. Conversely, the Brumbies are clinical and efficient, but they can be frustrated. The Reds need to target Brumbies halfback Nic White to put him off his game and force him into error, which will have a compounding effect on the ACT side’s forwards and backs. Take out the link and it all falls apart.
As always, the Brumbies’ game revolves around a strong set-piece and rolling maul, but they may be a little vulnerable up front.
Captain and tight-head prop Allan Alaalatoa has been suspended for three weeks after being red-carded for a dangerous tackle, while veteran loose-head prop James Slipper and hooker Connal McInerney are injured.
Only the brave go against the Brumbies in Canberra, where they have won 18 of their last 19 games, but their losses in the front-row present the Reds with a real opportunity to turn one of the Brumbies’ strengths into a weakness. If the Brumbies do manage to assert themselves up front, they will be able to play their style of game, but questions remain over whether that will be good enough to hold off the Reds’ resurgence.
Whatever the outcome, there will certainly be a finals feeling to the Brumbies-Reds game, which will overshadow the match between expansion franchises Melbourne and Western Force in Perth on Friday night. After two narrow losses, the Rebels must win to show they are a genuine third contender for the Super Rugby AU title, while the Force will be confident after recording a 20-16 win against the Waratahs last Friday night, their first win in Super Rugby since 2017.
The Waratahs showed signs of improvement, but they are still undermining themselves with unforced errors. It was only four years ago that the Waratahs were the number one team in Australia. Their dramatic demise is a cautionary tale for the Brumbies, straining to remain on top.
How long can the Brumbies fend off the challenge of the Reds? Will this be the season where there is a power shift from Canberra to Brisbane? Or will the Brumbies resist the concerted effort to make Queensland great again? The answer to those questions might be found in Canberra on Saturday night.
