One of the most popular football columns in the media space this week, and perhaps every week since 2018, has been a variation on this theme: How do you beat the Kansas City Chiefs? A quick Google search for “how to beat the Chiefs” returns over 53 million results in under a single second. There are stories about formulas, blueprints and more. Touchdown Wire is no different, as yesterday I tried yet again to craft a game plan for slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the rest of their talented offense.
A pillar of that plan, and a part of many such pieces, is the notion that you beat Mahomes by turning him into more of a spectator. Play light up front, dare the Chiefs to run the football, and if you see #15 turn and hand the football off on a given play, consider it a victory.
Of course, if a chucklehead like me can put that together, the bright minds in the NFL can certainly do the same. Reviewing the Chiefs’ 2020 season sees that more than a few teams dared the Chiefs to run the football through formation, alignment and personnel. The kicker? Kansas City was willing to oblige, and at times it might not have gone the way defenses hoped it would.
Here’s how the Kansas City Chiefs’ rushing attack could be an x-factor in Super Bowl LV.
We all know the NFL is a copycat league, and if something works, teams will try their darnedest to mimic what they do. Given that Bill Belichick is one of the handful of coaches who has found ways to at least slow the Chiefs down over the past few seasons, it makes sense that teams would incorporate some of what he does into their own game plans.
It has not always worked.
But the premise is this: If you play with sub packages defensively, putting five, six or even seven defensive backs on the field, you might be able to play with some bracket coverages or even a true double-team on some of the Chiefs receivers, whether Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman or even Travis Kelce, as Belichick has done in the past. The added benefit of having so many defensive backs in the game? Mahomes, Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy might be willing to check to the run game against those looks.
Anytime Mahomes is handing the football off, and not dropping back to throw, is a chance to keep them from scoring on a huge play in the blink of an eye.
Studying the Chiefs’ rushing attack from 2020 uncovers numerous examples of Kansas City playing along and turning to the run game against these sub personnel groups and lighter boxes, and putting together big runs on the ground.
One such team that tried this? The Baltimore Ravens back in Week 3. Yes Mahomes still threw for 385 yards in the win, but the Chiefs also ran for 132 yards on the night. Take this 2nd-and-six play from late in the first half. The Ravens align in a 2-3-6 package with just two defensive linemen in the game. Mahomes becomes a spectator, handing the ball off to rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire on a split zone design:
The rookie finds a crease behind the flow of the play, and spurts upfield for a 16-yard gain. Kansas City would finish the drive with a touchdown from Mahomes to Hardman from 49 yards out to take a 27-10 lead into the locker room.
Another team that tried this strategy is the Denver Broncos. The results? Kansas City ran for 185 yards in a 43-16 victory back in Week 7 – obviously game script played a role there – and another 134 yards in a 22-16 victory in Week 13. Looking through those two games provides yet more examples of a defense using sub packages to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off, and the quarterback complying with good results for the offense.
Take this play from Week 7:
The Broncos put a 2-4-5 defense in the game for this 1st-and-10 play, using two defensive tackles and putting two linebackers on the edges to give them a four-man surface. Mahomes again hands the ball off against this light package and box, as Edwards-Helaire follows left tackle Eric Fisher and left guard Nick Allegretti to the right edge. The result? A 27-yard gain on this play. Kansas City’s drive would stall as Mahomes’ next three passing attempts would fail to pick up a first down. Perhaps Denver chalked this one up as a win for them, and they might be right.
The Buffalo Bills in Week 6
A team that might have taken this idea to heart is the Buffalo Bills. Back in their Week 6 meeting, the Bills used a lot of sub packages and aligned their cornerbacks and safeties deep on a number of plays, trying to keep everything in front of them and slow down Mahomes and company.
The result? Kansas City ran for 245 yards – by far their best rushing game of the season – en route to a 26-17 victory. Edwards-Helaire had his best game of his rookie campaign, rushing for 161 yards on 26 carries, an impressive 6.2 yards per attempt.
Early in the game the rookie ripped off this nine-yard gain on a split-zone design against one of these light defensive looks:
You’ll notice the alignments of the safeties and the cornerbacks. The safeties are 15 yards or more downfield, and the cornerbacks are also playing off the line. With the soft Cover-4 look and the light box up front, the Chiefs are in a position to keep the ball on the ground. Edwards-Helaire finds a crease – thanks to a great slice block from Travis Kelce working across the formation – and 1st-and-ten becomes 2nd-and-one in an instant.
Given the status of Patrick Mahomes’ turf toe injury he might not be called upon to run the football in Super Bowl LV, but the threat of him as a ball-carrier is also an effective weapon. Especially against these light packages. When a defense is outmanned up front stopping the run is hard as it is, but that is doubled when you have to account for a mobile quarterback.
Take this 2nd-and-five play from Week 6. Because the defensive end has to account for the threat of Mahomes on this zone running play, that means the offensive line has one fewer defender to block:
Again, the Bills are in the 4-2-5 package and they align the safeties deep before the snap. In contract to the previous play, however, they spin into a Cover-3 look, dropping safety Jordan Poyer down into an underneath zone. But this play is made due to the combination of the light box, and the offensive design. Given the threat of Mahomes as a runner, defensive end Darryl Johnson has to stay home in case the quarterback decides to keep the football. Essentially, the concept of the QB keep “blocks” Johnson. That means that the Chiefs now have their five offensive linemen to block the three down defenders that are remaining. As you can see, particularly on the end zone angle, that creates a pair of double-teams initially. Then, when linebacker Tremaine Edmunds dips to the inside, Edwards-Helaire has the vision and the footwork to cut outside, turning this play into a 12-yard gain.
(For those wondering, yes Geoff Schwartz’s handy “Is It Duo?” page was referenced here, which is worth bookmarking).
One more example of this tension playing out in Week 6 is this zone play from later in the second quarter. By now you are probably noticing a bit of a trend, in that the Chiefs often rely on zone rushing concepts against these lighter looks, save for the power design against Denver with both the tackle and the guard pulling in front of the ball-carrier. I wanted to highlight this zone play because of tight end Travis Kelce. For everything he does as a receiver, his growth over the past few seasons as a blocker is also worthy of praise. We saw that earlier on a split-zone design, and we see it here on this lead-zone concept:
This play is gorgeous if you are an offensive line coach and/or a run game coordinator. You see some of the elements previously discussed (secondary playing deep, a light box up front, a 4-2-5 sub package) but when you see this play from the end zone angle you see the movement up front, how the linemen and Kelce flow upfield, and how the rookie running back takes advantage of the opportunities created by personnel and scheme. Center Daniel Kilgore flows to the second level to handle the backside linebacker, while Kelce gets to Matt Milano and chops him down to the turf. Once more, a big gain on the ground for the Chiefs against a sub package.
Now, we are close to finishing up, but we are not done just yet. Catch a breath, grab another sip of your beverage and join me on the other side as we wrap up this look at the Chiefs’ rushing attack.
The x-factor against the x-factor
This discussion of the Kansas City Chiefs’ rushing attack against sub packages is all well and good. As we have seen, when teams have played light boxes and/or soft coverages against them, daring them to run the football and hoping to turn Patrick Mahomes into a spectator, the Chiefs have complied this season.
And with success.
But the Chiefs are not playing the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, nor are they playing the Denver Broncos, or the Baltimore Ravens, or the Miami Dolphins, or the Houston Texans, or the myriad small creatures trying to tie them to the ground. (Listen, my contract requires that I work in at least one Pink Floyd reference per article to annoy Doug Farrar).
No, the Chiefs are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And their run defense is really good.
How good? It’s one of the best in the league. Charles McDonald, one of the smartest football minds I know, argued this week that for the Chiefs to win one of the things they have to do is not take the bait. To avoid forcing the running game. As he argued:
Tampa Bay is a tough, tough team to run on, boasting one of the strongest run defenses in the NFL, even after losing star nose tackle Vita Vea for a large chunk of the season due to an injury. The Buccaneers defense led the league in expected points added per rushing play (-0.179) and yards per carry (3.6).
Running the ball will probably be a waste of time for the Chiefs, especially with the injuries they’ve suffered along the offensive line (and, also, Vea is back from that injury). It seems like the Chiefs know this about the Buccaneers defense as well. Last time they played, the Chiefs had only 16 carries from their running backs compared to 49 passing attempts from Mahomes.
Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be back for the Super Bowl, but that doesn’t mean the Chiefs need to run him into the ground. Unless the unforeseen happens and the Bucs secondary absolutely smothers Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game, the Chiefs need to stay away from running the ball in their quest to repeat as champs.
Those numbers get even better with Vea in the lineup. As Doug Farrar pointed out in the Touchdown Wire Matchup Podcast prior to the NFC Championship game, Vea has made a great run defense elite: “How good is he against the run? This season, when Vea is on the field, the Bucs allowed 2.8 yards per carry. Without him, 4.0. Without Vea, Tampa Bay allowed a Rushing EPA of -0.17 — they were still good — and with him, they allowed a Rushing EPA of -0.32.”
That might have led to, as McDonald pointed out, the Chiefs not taking the bait back in Week 12. They ran the ball just 17 times in that game – ten of those coming in the second half as they were trying to salt the contest away – and were more than happy to put the ball in the air. When they did try and test the Buccaneers’ run defense, and even some of those lighter packages, Tampa Bay still held their ground on many such occasions.
Take this play, with Edwards-Helaire testing the right side of this Tampa Bay 3-3-5 package:
Linebacker Anthony Nelson does a great job of setting the edge on this snap, forcing the rookie to stay inside, and the help arrives in the form of linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White. More on them in a moment. This play is held to a two-yard gain.
Or take this example:
The Chiefs try a split-zone design to test the Buccaneers’ 3-3-5 defense. But Ndamukong Suh stops this play before it gets going. Right tackle Mike Remmers has a tough task, trying to get to Suh, but the defensive lineman drives Remmers into the ball-carrier and the play goes for no gain. (The flag that came in late was on Remmers for holding, adding insult to injury). The result was a third-down stop that forced a Chiefs’ punt.
On their ensuing possession Tom Brady would hit Mike Evans for a touchdown to cut into the Chiefs’ lead.
Tampa Bay’s run defense is really, really good. With player up front like Suh, and perhaps the best tandem of linebackers in the game in White and David, they can stop the run even with these light packages. What they did against Kansas City back in Week 12, perhaps due to the Chiefs’ deciding not to test that run game as much, might be a foreshadowing of this Super Bowl. Yes, Kansas City still had a few good run plays against lighter groups back in Week 12, such as a ten-yard gain by Le’Veon Bell prior to halftime on a split-zone design, or another ten-yard gain by Edwards-Helaire early in the third quarter, both of which came against this 3-3-5 group. But their best rushing attempt of the contest? This play:
A speed option look on 3rd-and-one with Mahomes keeping the ball for 17 yards and a first down. It came at the expense of Tampa Bay’s base 4-3 defense, and given what happened in the Divisional Round, and the status of Mahomes’ toe, we might not see it again this season.
So where does that leave up, after more words than my editors would like to see? Uncertain, is perhaps the best way of putting it. Teams that have dared the Kansas City Chiefs to run the football this season, as a means of limiting what Patrick Mahomes can do, have at times found an offense that is willing to comply. That has led to some big gains for the Chiefs on the ground this year.
But the Buccaneers’ defensive front is a different beast, and as we saw back in Week 12 – without Vita Vea – they can stop the run with lighter packages. That might mean the Chiefs put the ball in Mahomes’ hands more, just like we saw in Week 12.
Which is where they might want to be all along.
