It’s early, but in the NFL, it’s already getting late for some teams.
Entering the season, the Ravens were seen not only as a contender but a favorite, ready to finally house the franchise’s third Vince Lombardi Trophy and first in the Lamar Jackson era. Then, there were the Packers, a two-time seventh-seed that, after trading for Micah Parsons, was in the midst of redefining themselves.
There were also the teams expected to go nowhere that suddenly became part of the Super Bowl conversation. The Colts are such a squad, left for dead by the experts thanks to an uninspiring quarterback battle, but now 3–1 and tied atop the AFC South.
Which teams are contenders and which are pretenders at the quarter pole? We examine eight cases and make the call.
Baltimore Ravens: Contender
At 1–3 and riddled by injuries, it’s a dark time for Baltimore.
On Sunday, the Ravens left Arrowhead Stadium 37–20 losers to the Chiefs with injuries to Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith, Nate Wiggins and Lamar Jackson, along with preexisting ailments to Ronnie Stanley, Kyle Van Noy, Nnamdi Madubuike, Broderick Washington Jr., Travis Jones and Jaire Alexander among others.
It’s a mess. However, Baltimore has one of the league’s best rosters. And if the Ravens can get healthy, they’ll eventually get rolling. That said, they have a challenging three-game stretch at home against the Texans, Rams and Bears before going on the road to face the Dolphins, Vikings and Browns.
Forgetting the injuries for a moment, Baltimore’s biggest issue is its defense. The Ravens are 25th in dropback EPA (0.174) and 29th in EPA per play (0.149) while ranking 31st in yardage and 32nd in points allowed as of Monday morning. If that side of the ball doesn’t improve, the Ravens will quickly become pretenders.
Green Bay Packers: Pretender
The Packers looked like the best team in football after a pair of resounding home wins over the Lions and Commanders. Since then, not so much.
Against the Browns, Green Bay gave up 13 unanswered, fourth-quarter points to lose 13–10 in Cleveland. Seven days later, in the Micah Parsons Bowl, the Packers were lucky to escape with a 40–40 tie, as the Cowboys racked up 436 yards and 26 first downs. One week, it’s the offense not doing the job. The next week, it’s the defense.
Green Bay is a good team, but it’s not a great one. At 2-1-1, it’s hard to make the case that the Packers are the best team in the NFC North. And Detroit, since losing to Green Bay in the opener, is 3–0 and averaging 41.3 points per game in a trio of dominant wins. Furthermore, what’s the argument for the Packers being better than the Eagles, Rams or even the Buccaneers?
Jordan Love is a good quarterback. The receivers are good and will eventually be bolstered by the returns of Jayden Reed (collarbone) and Christian Watson (ACL). However, Green Bay must be more consistent before achieving true contender.
Indianapolis Colts: Pretender
Maybe the Colts deserve better here, but it’s hard to see Indianapolis having a legitimate path to Santa Clara.
With Daniel Jones at the helm, the Colts have been reborn. Jones has thrown for 1,078 yards, third-most in the NFL. His EPA per play of 0.312 is behind only defending-MVP Josh Allen and Jordan Love. He’s doing everything asked of him.
On defense, coordinator Lou Anarumo has the unit playing solid football. It’s 13th in EPA per play (-0.028) and a respectable 17th in yards per play allowed (5.4). There’s nothing that screams regression for the Colts, who also managed to beat the Broncos and hang in for 60 minutes with the Rams.
Still, the AFC goes through Kansas City and, to a lesser extent, Baltimore and Buffalo. Can Jones really author a playoff run that takes down two or three of the quarterbacks in those cities? It feels like a tall order. However, winning the division and a playoff game is absolutely in play.
Kansas City Chiefs: Contender
After two weeks, the Chiefs were 0–2 and had more sideline disagreements than explosive plays. Suddenly, though, things have changed.
On Sunday, Xavier Worthy returned from a torn labrum and posted a career-high 123 total yards while the Chiefs beat the Ravens 37–20. Patrick Mahomes passed for 270 yards and four touchdowns. And in three weeks, the Chiefs will see the return of Rashee Rice from his six-game suspension.
But the big story in Kansas City should be its defense. After struggling in a 27–21 opening-night loss to the Chargers in Brazil, the Chiefs have shut down the Eagles, Giants and Ravens. Over those three games, Kansas City has allowed 460 passing yards while registering seven sacks, including two by George Karlaftis, nine quarterback hits and five tackles for loss, showing why general manager Brett Veach gave the defensive end a four-year, $93 million extension this summer.
At 2–2 and a game out of the AFC West lead, the Chiefs seem to be on the right track. And if Mahomes continues to play as he did Sunday, they’ll be the AFC’s team to beat again.
Los Angeles Chargers: Contender
Despite an ugly loss to the previously winless Giants in Jaxson Dart’s first NFL start, the Chargers deserve to be taken seriously.
After having the league’s top scoring defense in 2024, many expected regression. However, coordinator Jesse Minter’s group has remained a top unit, ranking third in EPA per play (-0.101), first in success rate (37.6%), second in yards per play (4.5) and fourth in points allowed (71) entering Monday night.
Offensively, the situation could be a struggle with left tackle Joe Alt dealing with a high ankle sprain and fellow stud tackle Rashawn Slater out for the year with a torn patellar tendon. Still, Alt will return and Justin Herbert can make it work until then. Herbert has been excellent in 2025, throwing for 1,063 yards to rank fourth, along with seven touchdowns. The big concern is protection, as only Cam Ward, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Drake Maye have been sacked more than Herbert (12 sacks).
But if the Chargers can get Alt back and stay the course, they’ll be a tough out in January.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pretender
Pittsburgh is 3–1, but there are warning signs.
The Steelers beat the Vikings on Sunday in Ireland. However, they were significantly outgained in total yardage for the fourth consecutive week (372–313). Pittsburgh has been able to win by taking the ball away at a seemingly unsustainable rate, including seven in the past two games. Eventually, Pittsburgh will have to win a game without the benefit of forcing turnovers.
The schedule is also about to get far more difficult. Through September, the Steelers have beaten Justin Fields, Drake Maye and Carson Wentz. After its upcoming bye week, Pittsburgh will face the Browns and Bengals, followed by the Packers, Colts and Chargers. Later in the year, the Steelers will face the Ravens, Bills and Lions in a four-week span.
As always under coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is a probable playoff team. But the defense is tied for 24th in yards per play allowed (5.7), 29th in yards per completion (11.8), 30th in overall passing (260.5/game), 23rd on third down (41.8%) and 22nd on points per drive (2.40). Once the takeaways dry up, it’s going to be much tougher sledding.
San Francisco 49ers: Pretender
The 49ers are 3–1. It took four turnovers to lose to the one-loss Jaguars on Sunday by five points. So why are they pretenders?
For starters, the roster is falling apart. Brandon Aiyuk is still on injured reserve, recovering from a torn ACL. Nick Bosa was lost in Week 3 to the same injury. George Kittle sustained a hamstring injury in the opener and hasn’t played since. And while Brock Purdy came back on Sunday after missing two weeks with turf toe, he threw a pair of interceptions and lost a fumble.
The good news? The 49ers have an easy schedule. They still have the Falcons, Texans, Giants, Cardinals, Panthers, Browns and Titans to play, all of whom San Francisco will be favored to beat. In some cases, by large spreads. But an easy docket doesn’t put a team in the contention bubble. Defensively, San Francisco ranks 19th in success rate (44.2%) and 17th in dropback EPA (0.048) despite facing Spencer Rattler, Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence over the past three weeks.
San Francisco is a decent team, but it’s a far cry from the Super Bowl teams of recent vintage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Contender
The Buccaneers lost for the first time on Sunday, falling 31–25 to the undefeated Eagles. But after trailing 21–3 early, Tampa Bay rallied despite being without multiple starting offensive linemen, and receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan.
Tampa Bay has all the ingredients of a championship contender. Baker Mayfield is a top-10 quarterback, coming off a season in which he threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns. The receiving corps might be the NFL’s deepest when healthy, bolstered by rookie Emeka Egbuka, who has 282 yards and four touchdowns thus far.
The Buccaneers also play in the NFC South, which means five more games against the Falcons, Saints and Panthers. If Tampa Bay can clean up against bad teams, it will be in the mix for a top seed and have a chance to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in six years.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Super Bowl Contenders and Pretenders Entering NFL Week 5: Who’s Real and Who’s Fake.
