February is finally here, which means Super Bowl LIV is now just one day away. Fans have been waiting nearly two weeks for this thrilling showdown between the NFC’s San Francisco 49ers and AFC’s Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami that will determine this season’s NFL champion. Sportsbooks have been constantly tinkering with the betting odds for this game over the past fortnight and it’s likely that these continue to shift slightly before the game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. The spread is currently hovering around one-point in favor of Kansas City, while the total has steadily risen and is now sitting at 55 points, one of the highest over/unders a Super Bowl has seen.
Because this is one of the most evenly matched Super Bowls in history, at least on paper, it can be difficult to predict which side will win and cover the nominal spread. Strong arguments can be made for both the Chiefs and 49ers in this game, but only one will walk away victorious after four quarters of action tomorrow night. If you are one of the millions planning to bet the big game, but aren’t sure which way to lean in just the second Super Bowl since 1982 to have a point spread this small, you aren’t alone. Fortunately for readers, pro handicapper Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com has revealed his prediction for the outcome and you won’t want to miss who the Vegas expert is picking to be crowned champs at the conclusion of Super Bowl LIV.
Before getting to Price’s pick for the final game of the 2020 NFL Playoffs, take a look at the complete viewing guide to Super Bowl LIV, which includes the full schedule, TV channel, live stream site and updated betting information for the matchup. You can also find an in-depth preview highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of both the 49ers and Chiefs to help you make an informed decision when wagering on Super Bowl LIV.
Super Bowl LIV Viewing Guide
- When: Sunday, February 2
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Live Stream: FOX Sports GO
Super Bowl LIV Betting Update
- Spread: Chiefs -1
- Moneyline: Chiefs -125, 49ers +105
- Total: 55 points
Odds updated 2/1 at 10:30 a.m. ET
2020 Super Bowl Preview: San Francisco 49ers (15-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-4)
This will be just the second Super Bowl in 38 years to have a spread of less than two points, joining Super Bowl XLIX between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. The line on that contest was a pick ‘em, with oddsmakers correctly projecting a tightly contested clash that would come right down to the wire. It appears another epic showdown is in store on Sunday night, especially when you take a closer look at how these teams match up with one another across the field.
The 49ers may be the underdogs, but the team has been relying on a tried and true formula to win all year long: run the ball and play great defense. There are no shortage of Super Bowl winners that were able to do these things at an elite level and it’s quite possible that San Francisco is able to become the next champion to fit the mold after leaning heavily on these areas to win an NFL-best 14 games during the regular season.
The Chiefs aren’t exactly well equipped to shut down a rushing attack either, allowing 4.9 yards per carry to opposing runners during the regular season, the fourth-worst mark in the league. It appears that they have shored up that weakness a bit during their two-game run through the AFC portion of the 2020 NFL Playoff bracket—notably holding Titans star running back Derrick Henry to 69 yards on 19 carries—but Kansas City has yet to face an offense as creative as the one designed by 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The 40-year-old coach is already considered one of the best play-callers in the league and has his run game firing on all cylinders ahead of Super Bowl 54’s start time. After averaging an impressive 144.1 rushing yards per game in the regular season—the second-best mark in the league—the Niners have gone all-in on the ground attack during the postseason, amassing an eye-popping 471 yards and six touchdowns on 89 carries.
This relentless running—from a trio of talented backs that includes Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert, the latter whom destroyed the Green Bay Packers by racking up 220 yards and four scores in the NFC Championship—will be tougher to stop than anything the Chiefs defense has come up against so far this year. Although Kansas City did beat the Baltimore Ravens—who led the NFL by a mile in rushing yardage in 2019—early in the year, the defense didn’t have much success shutting down the run in that game and allowed the Ravens to pick up 203 yards and all four of their touchdowns on just 32 totes. San Francisco will surely be trying to get their runners in a rhythm early, as history shows a team that can’t be stopped on the ground simply won’t lose on the biggest stage. There have been seven previous instances where a team has collectively rushed for more than 200 yards in a Super Bowl and on all seven of those occasions that side has hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy once the final whistle blew. It is worth noting, however, that the 200-yard rushing mark hasn’t been breached in a Super Bowl since 1998 and the Chiefs will fight tooth and nail to keep that streak alive during the 2020 Super Bowl.
Field Yates reported that both the 49ers and Chiefs are fully healthy heading into Super Bowl LIV:
Kansas City can protect itself from San Francisco’s ceaseless rushing attack by scoring early and often during Super Bowl LIV. It’s often said that the best defense is a good offense and the Chiefs will want to adhere to that adage by executing when they have the ball on Sunday night. That hasn’t been an issue since superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes took over under center for the club, as Kansas City has scored 21 or more points in 34 of his 35 career starts. The league’s reigning MVP didn’t have as incredible of a statistical season in 2019 compared to last year—tossing just 26 touchdown passes against 50 in 2018 while also being limited by injury towards the mid-point of the campaign—but he has protected the ball well, dropping down to five interceptions this year in comparison to 12 during the previous campaign. The quarterback hasn’t thrown a single pick during his team’s run to Super Bowl LIV either, meticulously picking apart both opponents and now comes into Sunday having completed 46-of-70 passes for 615 yards and eight touchdowns. Mahomes has also served as Kansas City’s leading rusher during the 2020 NFL Playoffs, picking up an additional 106 yards and a score on 15 carries across two games. If the third-year signal-caller is going to secure his first Super Bowl win, he’ll need to keep shouldering the offensive load while deftly avoiding a San Francisco pass rush that many believe has been the best in the NFL this year.
The Niners recorded 48 sacks during the regular season, ranking No. 6 in the league, and have taken a leap forward in that department despite the competition heating up in the playoffs. San Francisco has brought down the opposing QB on nine occasions during a two-game romp through the NFC and pressured two top-tier signal-callers into making numerous mistakes in that span. In the Divisional Round, Minnesota Vikings quarterback was under constant siege, resulting in six sacks and an interception. The Niners defense followed that up with a trio of sacks on Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game, while also forcing the quarterback to throw a pair of interceptions and recovering one of Rodgers’ three fumbles. Even if the San Francisco can’t get after the shiftier Mahomes in the backfield as often—although it’s easy to envision rookie sensation Nick Bosa, the defensive end that the 49ers picked No. 2 in the draft, adding to his 12-sack (including postseason) total—the secondary was the best in the league at limiting opposing passing yards and is more than capable of stymieing Mahomes’ ability to create the big plays that he’s become known for during his short but brilliant tenure in Kansas City.
NFL Research pointed out that Mahomes and Garoppolo are in rare company based on their winning percentages and passer ratings:
The biggest question mark going into Super Bowl 54 is whether the San Francisco passing game can rise to the occasion if needed. The team has by and large moved away from relying on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to move the chains during this postseason run. Since Garoppolo threw an interception early in the 49ers playoff opener against Minnesota, Shanahan has seemingly opted to avoid risking any more mistakes from his signal-caller. He’s thrown just 27 passes across two games, completing 17 of them for 208 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Niners used Jimmy G for little more than handing the ball off in the NFC Championship, when he threw a season-low eight times (11 less attempts than his previous low, set just a week prior) and was able to sit back and watch his running backs simply dominate an overmatched defensive front.
Eric Branch tweeted a quip from Shanahan on why he didn’t dial up many pass plays with a Super Bowl berth on the line:
It’s a bit more unlikely that the Chiefs will suffer the same fate, given the two weeks they have had to prepare and a more powerful offense that could dictate the game script should they start finding the end zone early on. The Niners weren’t afraid to lean on Garoppolo in big moments during the regular season—notably shouldering the load in a shootout against the New Orleans Saints by completing 26-of-35 passes for 349 yards and four touchdowns against a lone interception—so they shouldn’t fear putting the ball in his hands for big moments in Super Bowl 54. The 28-year-old quarterback showed plenty of poise—especially in third-down situations with at least a yard to go, where he converted on 46% of pass plays, the top mark in the league—during the season, reliably moving the chain by picking out targets that have been sprung open by a variety of motions and shifts in Shanahan’s scheme. If Garoppolo can shake off the rust from being sparsely used this last month, it will give San Francisco a massive boost towards its chances of capturing the franchise’s record-tying sixth Super Bowl.
Super Bowl LIV Pro Prediction
Jon Price believes that this one will be a hard-fought game by both sides and should result in one of the more exciting Super Bowls in recent history, but ultimately the 49ers are too complete of a team to lose on Sunday. Their combination of an unstoppable running game, premium pass-rushers and, at worst, a quality game manager under center should trump Kansas City’s explosive passing offense. The New York Giants were able to fell two high-octane New England offenses in Super Bowls by harassing an MVP-caliber quarterback in Tom Brady with their ferocious defensive line. San Francisco could replicate that strategy while shortening the game and amount of possessions the Chiefs even get on offense, assuming the San Francisco running back platoon can play up to their usual standards. For these same reasons, the UNDER is also an intriguing bet on Super Bowl LIV. Expect this one to play out in the mid-to-high 40’s, with the 49ers ultimately edging out their foe to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Pick: 49ers +1, UNDER 55
Prediction: San Francisco 26 – Kansas City 23
