A swing of 4 per cent to the Conservatives is a pretty reasonable result for them here, although the surprise is that a swing this size has appeared in a safe Labour seat. This suggests two possibilities - maybe the exit poll has underestimated the swing, or perhaps the Conservatives are not overperforming in marginals as much as they might have done.
BBC commentators have referred to rumours that both Peterborough and Hornchurch are "too close to call". They shouldn't be; the Conservatives should win both seats easily for local reasons - in Peterborough, because of the weakness of the incumbant, in Hornchurch because it's part of Essex.
Either someone's spinning (surely not!) or the pattern of swings is not only uneven, but also falling in a most unexpected direction.
