WASHINGTON _ Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said he sees a better than one-in-three chance of a U.S. recession by the end of next year and urged the Federal Reserve to continue to tilt monetary policy toward preventing that.
A 35% chance of a recession having started by the end of 2020 "feels in the neighborhood of right, perhaps slightly optimistic relative to my guesses," Summers said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Friday.
He noted concerns about a decline in consumer confidence possibly becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, limited tools the Fed has to prevent a downturn _ given how low interest rates are _ and rising worries about Europe and China, and how they may affect the U.S. economy.
"You have more of a threat to the American economy from what's happening globally with rising concerns about Europe and Europe's difficulty in maintaining momentum, with the still-uncertain effects of Brexit and with a sense that the future of the Chinese economy is rather unclear from here," he said.
There's been increasing talk of when the America's record-long expansion will come to an end amid a slowing global growth, a lingering trade war, a fragile manufacturing sector and cooling employment gains. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized his desire to extend the expansion, and the central bank has lowered the benchmark interest rate at its last two meetings.
"I think the risks of monetary policy being too tight and driving us into a recession exceed the risks of monetary policy being too easy and creating inflation," Summers said. "The tilt towards insuring against downturn that has informed U.S. monetary policy so far in 2019 has been broadly appropriate and it's something I'd like to see continue."
Investors largely expect the Fed to lower interest rates once again when policymakers meet Oct. 29-30 in Washington. Bloomberg Economics estimated the odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 27%.
