A long spell of above-average temperatures means this summer will “almost certainly” be the UK’s warmest on record, according to new figures from the Met Office.
The country would have to see several days of below-average temperatures between now and the end of the month for 2025 to miss out on the top spot.
Such a scenario is not suggested by the latest forecast.
The mean average temperature for the season stands at 16.13C, based on data up to August 25.
This is higher than the existing summer record of 15.76C, which was set in 2018.
“Unless temperatures are around four degrees below average for the rest of August – which the forecast does not suggest – it looks like the current record will be exceeded,” Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle said.
“Of course, there are still a few days left of meteorological summer to go but it’s very unlikely anything will stop summer 2025 from being the warmest on record.”
If this season is confirmed as setting a new high for average temperature, it will mean all of the UK’s top five warmest summers will have occurred since the year 2000.
The top five are currently 2018 (15.76C), 2006 (15.75C), 2003 (15.74C), 2022 (15.71C) and 1976 (15.70C).
Met Office temperature data for the UK begins in 1884.
Four heatwaves hit the UK this summer, all of which saw temperatures climb above 30C, though none was quite as fierce as the heatwave of July 2022 when an all-time high of 40.3C was reached.
This year’s spells of intense heat were also relatively short-lived and did not persist for as long as in the scorching summer of 1976, when multiple locations across England endured heatwave-like conditions lasting more than two weeks.
Temperatures peaked above 32C on 16 days during the summer of 1976, compared with nine days in 2025.
The main reason this summer is on course to outrank 1976 and all others in terms of overall average temperature is the “consistency of the warmth”, the Met Office added.
This has been caused by a combination of factors: dry ground, thanks to extremely low rainfall in the spring; persistent high-pressure weather systems; and unusually warm seas around the UK.
These conditions have created an environment where “heat builds quickly and lingers”.
In addition, climate change continues to play a role, with the UK warming at a rate of approximately 0.25C per decade.
Rainfall this summer has been below the long-term average, with only 72% of the typical amount having fallen by August 25, below the 93% that should have been measured by this point.
It comes after England suffered its second driest spring since rainfall records began in 1836, while the UK experienced its sixth driest.
The full figures for this summer’s weather will be published by the Met Office on September 1.
Dr Jess Neumann, associate professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, said: “Many would say that this has been a ‘good UK summer’ with lots of warm and dry weather painting a picture of ice creams, beach days and barbecues in the sunshine.
“However this is not the case for everyone and recent studies indicate that there have been hundreds of heat-related deaths during the UK summer heatwaves.
“The lack of rainfall has also had a knock-on effect to public water supply, agriculture and the environment.
“Hosepipe bans are still in place across parts of the country, farmers have had to harvest crops early due to drought, pollutants in rivers are at critical levels and wildlife is suffering due to a lack of freshwater.
“Parts of the UK will be in significant trouble if a dry winter follows this summer, as we desperately need rainfall to restock our rivers and reservoirs and recharge our aquifers.”
Mark Maslin, professor of earth system science at University College London, said: “The UK has been hit by four heatwaves which will all but guarantee 2025 is the warmest year on record by far.
“The reason this is so concerning is because the UK just does not have the infrastructure to cope with the heat – people swelter in their homes without air conditioning, railway tracks buckle in the heat and our reservoirs dry out.
“The 2025 summer is the new normal due to climate change and we Brits need to adapt as quickly as possible – and the Government needs to step up its adaptation plans before it’s too late.”
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