Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga won a landslide victory in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, with broad support from the local prefectural chapters on top of the five factions of LDP lawmakers. However, being the first president without a factional affiliation, Suga's support base is far from solid. With calls to dissolve the lower house of the Diet by the end of the year simmering, Suga is likely to depend on LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai, who will remain in his role, to manage the party.
-- Complete victory
After being elected as the new president at a joint plenary meeting of LDP members from both houses of the Diet, Suga said, "Now that the presidential election is over, let's unite under the banner of the LDP and move Japan forward." The hotel hall where the meeting was held was filled with applause.
Out of the 393 votes cast by LDP Diet members, Suga received 288 votes, far exceeding LDP Policy Research Council Chairperson Fumio Kishida's 79 votes and former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba's 26 votes. Suga was supported by five LDP factions: the Hosoda faction, which is the largest, as well as the Aso, Takeshita, Nikai and Ishihara factions. He was also widely supported by lawmakers without factional affiliations.
Despite initially being seen as disadvantaged in prefectural chapter votes against Ishiba, who is popular among the public, Suga successfully secured 89 out of 141 votes, accounting for over 60%. He successfully assumed legitimacy as the "successor" to Shinzo Abe.
A senior member of Suga's campaign said, "The strategy of putting Suga's background of coming from Akita Prefecture and working his way up at the forefront of his campaign has paid off, resulting in a complete victory." Suga also said at the campaign's results briefing: "I wasn't sure about the local vote, but I realized that support was growing day by day."
-- Rocky road ahead
Following his election, Suga said: "I jumped into the world of politics without any local ties or blood ties. I literally had to start from scratch, but I was able to become president of the LDP, a party with history and tradition."
Suga, who has advocated for breaking away from factionalism, aims to promote "politics without factional restraint" and hopes to break down sectionalized bureaucracy and vested interests. When asked at a press conference whether his policies could be influenced by the intentions of various factions, Suga confidently said: "There is no adverse effect from factions. Since I received a large number of votes, the environment is ripe for pursuing political goals under stable conditions."
However, many of the non-factional lawmakers who support Suga are young or midranking, with weak electoral bases. Suga's proposal to establish a "digital agency" aims to remove the authority of ministries such as the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry and Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry, and consolidate their work in a new entity. Providing insurance coverage for fertility treatment will involve securing financial resources, and backlash from related ministries and lawmakers is expected.
Prime Minister Abe, who belongs to the Hosoda faction, was backed by the "numerical strength" of the faction and built a unified party by placing other faction leaders in important positions, enabling him to maintain a long-running government.
Suga was quick to reappoint Nikai as secretary general because he judged Nikai's influence within the party to be indispensable in bolstering his unstable standing in the party. On Monday, Nikai said: "Capability, sincerity and ability to deliver; Suga has all the elements necessary for a politician. I will fully trust him and cooperate with him."
Nevertheless, there are still concerns. A former cabinet minister said: "If support for the cabinet falls due to scandals or other factors, the factions will be quick to distance themselves. The unifying force will immediately decline, and the administration's operations will be destabilized."
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