On one hand, the math is pretty straightforward for everyone not named Denny Hamlin as it pertains to their pathway to the championship four but then again, the next race takes place at Talladega where the results could be decided by The Big One.
And guess who isn’t currently in a position to race for a championship? Team Penske.
Denny Hamlin Adv.
Kyle Larson +35
Christopher Bell +20
Chase Briscoe +15
-
William Byron -15
Chase Elliott -23
Joey Logano -24
Ryan Blaney -31
Sunday was a worst-case scenario for Ryan Blaney, crashing out with a blown left front before the first stage ended, meaning last place points and no chance to score stage points either.
"I’m not overjoyed, I tell you that," Blaney said. "We’ll have to come from behind like we did last year. Hopefully, we can win one of the next two weeks. We just can’t have a smooth day it seems like."
Blaney has won at Talladega in 2019, 2021 and 2023. Blaney won the Martinsville playoff race in 2023 and 2024. He has to win one of these two now, right?
“Yeah. No doubt.”
But that's also a tall, tall task.
"You’ve got to be optimistic," Blaney said. "I’m not very happy right now, but tomorrow morning I’ll be optimistic to go to the next race. We’ve had good success at the next two events, so hopefully we can come and bring the speed and try to overcome the hole we put ourselves in today."
Joey Logano finished sixth with three stage points which didn’t matter because everyone else around him scored more stage points or also finished in the top-10.
“The closer we get, the more we’ve got to win,” Logano said. “I think we closed the gap a little bit today. I heard we were 21 points out. I’m not sure if that’s right or not but I haven’t really looked at all the spots yet. It’s still possible to point in but one of the spots are obviously taken up now.”
He has three wins at Talladega and two at Martinsville.
Chase Elliott scored six stage points in the first stage but a pitting outside the box penalty trapped him a lap down and he could only make it back up to 18th.
‘Yeah, I feel fine,” Elliott said when asked about his Talladega and Martinsville chances.
Even William Byron, the winner of the first stage and someone who scored 18 stage points, fell below the cutline when he collided into Ty Dillon as he slowed to pit without waving inside of 30 laps to go.
Byron trails Briscoe by 15 points so that’s a realistic race for now but Talladega could change everything drastically.
And remember, last year saw Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell all enter the Round of 8 above the cutline but eliminated simply because they didn’t win of the three races while those below the cutline did.
Chase Briscoe nearly continued that trend with a gutsy two tire pit stop that kept him ahead of Hamlin until five laps to go. As it stands, he still gained on the cutline and is now on the right side of it, but also at risk of falling below it if someone below him wins at Talladega.
“We got to go there, race, see what happens,” Briscoe said. “Obviously, that's where the biggest points swing is probably going to come for all of us. Luckily for us, we didn't use our one mulligan today, I guess. Go there, see what we can do, hopefully come out there on the plus side, maybe even win it, go on to Martinsville and see what we can do.”
Now, a positive for everyone currently in is that both Penske cars are out as Logano wasn’t good enough this weekend and Blaney had his issues. They have swept Next-Gen championships at Phoenix.
Larson is aware.
Larson and Bell have the most security given that they aren't on the bubble but Larson especially has points to give up if something bad happens. On the other hand, if he can get some top 10 stage points by the halfway point next weekend, he's in a strong spot to advance on points too.
"The 12 had a bad day," Larson said. "The 22 didn't win. Right now, as long as a Team Penske car doesn't win one of the next two races ... well, they aren’t must win but we don't want them in because they will be crazy fast.
If they don't make it, I do think this is suddenly wide open. The 11 is the only one in right now so I think Denny would be the favorite. Hopefully we can join him in there because I do think that's an area where we've made improvement and maybe surpassed (Gibbs) on our flat track program."
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