Supporters and critics of Nicola Sturgeon were in sombre mood as they digested news of the former first minister’s arrest on Sunday afternoon.
To see Sturgeon – just earlier in the day described by her successor, Humza Yousaf, as “one of the most impressive politicians Europe has seen over the last couple of decades” – and “arrested” in the same headline as the news alert flashed up on phones was a shock, despite speculation that it was inevitable given the continuing police investigation into the finances of the Scottish National party, which she led until recently.
There are plenty who find it inconceivable that a woman they have trusted and admired for decades would be involved in criminality related to the party to which she has dedicated her political life. In a statement posted on Sunday, soon after her release without charge, Sturgeon said she was “grateful so many continue to show faith in me and appreciate that I would never do anything to harm either the SNP or the country”.
Many are “scunnered” that, just as Yousaf was managing to wrestle the media narrative back to the Scottish government’s day job – albeit one strewn with policy disasters such as the deposit return scheme – the focus is once again on the police inquiry, and the questions it raises around transparency and governance.
Critics point out that when she was leader, Sturgeon welcomed the suspension from the party or relinquishing of the whip by other SNP politicians involved in police investigations, including Natalie McGarry, Michelle Thomson and Derek Mackay. Likewise, they believe the arrest of the former party leader is a profoundly serious moment for the SNP, while presenting further difficulties for her successor, who styled himself as the “continuity candidate” and appears unable to escape Sturgeon’s shadow.
When her husband, Peter Murrell, and the then party treasurer, Colin Beattie, were arrested in quick succession, speculation was rife that Sturgeon would be next. But as the weeks passed, this feverish anticipation diminished, and Sturgeon seemed to gather herself.
Friends suggest that her arrest on Sunday was something she had anticipated – in contrast to the visceral shock over her husband’s arrest and the search of her home – likening it to an unwelcome procedure that has to be got through, like a tooth extraction. The worse scenario for Sturgeon was to have this hanging over her.
They also suggest that her resilience is captured in an Instagram post, shared on Saturday, in which she revealed she had passed her driving theory test with a 50/50 score in the multiple choice section despite knowing that she would be arrested by arrangement within 24 hours.
In recent weeks, Sturgeon has returned to business as usual as a backbench MSP, focusing on her constituency, where she has been increasingly busy with surgeries, casework and events as first-ministerial commitments have disappeared.
After a strikingly emotional statement describing the “trauma” of her husband’s arrest, she has steered a careful path, taking part in friendly book-related events and even returning to the social media platforms where she had previously been a prolific poster.
She made her first policy intervention since she stepped down, writing a column for Guardian Opinion in which she said the furious backlash against Scottish government plans to pilot juryless trials for rape cases was the latest example of the polarisation of politics that contributed to her resignation as first minister.
She went on to write for the Daily Record, pledging to speak “loudly and clearly” if promises she made to children in care were not met by the Scottish government, and revealing that she was thinking “long and hard” about becoming a foster mum.
So where does her arrest leave the SNP?
In April, MSPs, activists and officials described the shock, denial and soul-searching as they grappled not only with the chaos prompted by the first arrests and searches but by the fallout of the bruising leadership contest to replace Sturgeon, which exposed deep rifts within the party over independence strategy and policy direction.
Polling has shown a marked fall in support for the SNP after Sturgeon’s resignation and the ensuing tumult, with strong indications that Scottish voters are now less likely to choose which party to back based on their constitutional preferences.
The expected byelection in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, the seat currently held by the former SNP MP and Covid rule-breaker Margaret Ferrier, will be a crucial test of this potential sea change in Scottish politics with Labour viewing it as a way to send a message to voters UK-wide about its electability.
But turmoil at Westminster over the weekend, resulting in another three byelections, could benefit the SNP if it results in Labour’s resources and focus being split between multiple campaigns while voters may be more inclined to view their choice in a national rather than local context.
As SNP members continue to absorb this latest – once inconceivable – development, there is frustration and, among some, despair that the party’s future remains tied to unanswered questions about its past.
