With conflicting reports emerging on mass reverse migration of Keralites from Gulf countries and falling foreign remittances, experts have called for a study on the impact of COVID-19 on short-term and long-term migration in Kerala. The last study on migration in the State was done in 2018.
An estimated 14-15 lakh people out of the 21 lakh non-resident Keralites may have come back from the Gulf region since the beginning of the pandemic in mid-March 2020. “The figure could be based on the repatriation flight data accessed by the State and conveys only one-way flow of return migrants. At least five lakh could have possibly migrated to new destinations or gone back to the same countries,” S. Irudaya Rajan, chairman, International Institute of Migration and Development, told The Hindu.
In this context, Dr. Rajan said the prevailing migration patterns would have to be re-examined as migration from Kerala to the Gulf countries had been diminishing over the years due to the cumulative effect of demographic change, decline in wages in the Gulf, decline in oil price, and the nationalisation policies of the GCC countries.
Figures of 2018
As per the Kerala Migration Survey 2018, carried out by Dr. Rajan and K.C. Zachariah for the Centre for Development Studies, there are 2.1 million migrants from Kerala across the world. However, there has been a decline of 3 lakh migrants during 2013-18. The estimated total remittances to Kerala were ₹85,092 crore in 2018, an increase from the ₹71,142 crore reported in 2014. “A reason is that Keralites in the Gulf have climbed up the social ladder and earn higher wages,” he said.
Incidentally, bank deposits by non-resident Keralites rose by 14% to ₹2.27 lakh crore in 2020 according to the World Bank data. However, such deposits are not remittances but money parked in NRE accounts in domestic banks. “The decline in remittances will be about 10%,” Dr. Rajan said.
Pending proposal
He said a proposal was pending with the State government to study the impact of COVID-19 on migration in Kerala. This will help determine migration, return migration, and remittances in the immediate post-pandemic future.
Besides, the study will identify the major issues faced by workers from Kerala in other countries. Further, it will help gauge the impact of COVID-19 and global lockdown on those who intend to migrate and suggest strategies for future, Dr. Rajan said.
