School and college leavers will want universities to “respect and understand” that they faced a “significant” programme to deflate their GCSE grades following Covid-19, the Ucas chief has said.
Jo Saxton, chief executive of the university admissions service, suggested that fewer students who are receiving their post-16 qualification results this summer met the entry requirements for A-level courses two years ago when grading was returned to pre-pandemic levels in England.
Dr Saxton, who was chief regulator of England’s exams regulator Ofqual from 2021 until 2023, has suggested that there could be “higher” attainment across this year’s A-level cohort as a result.
Her comments come as students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will receive their A-level and Level 3 BTec results on Thursday, with many finding out if they have secured a university place.
Last year, more than a quarter (27.8%) of UK A-level entries were awarded an A or A* grade, up from 27.2% in 2023.
It was the highest proportion of entries scoring top grades outside the pandemic-affected years of 2020-22.
In 2019 – the last year that summer exams were taken before the pandemic – 25.4% of entries were awarded A or A* grades.
The Covid-19 pandemic led to an increase in top A-level and GCSE grades in 2020 and 2021, with results based on teacher assessments instead of exams.
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, has suggested that a higher percentage of UK A-level entries awarded top grades – compared with before the pandemic – could become the “new normal” this summer.
During a webinar hosted by the Higher Education Policy Institute think tank, Dr Saxton said: “This cohort are the first to sit their Level 3 qualifications where they had the pre-pandemic standard reinstated on their GCSEs.
“I think that’s just such an important backdrop for this whole cycle, just remembering this is that cohort, that there was a significant national programme to deflate their grades.”
Dr Saxton, who was in charge at Ofqual when A-level and GCSE exams were reinstated in England following the pandemic, said she “lost a lot of sleep” over the action to tackle grade inflation.
But she suggested that teenagers told her that they wanted their exams back and they wanted their results to “carry value”.
Dr Saxton said: “I think they will really be looking to those universities to respect and understand the context in which they’ve come through.”
She said the return to pre-pandemic grading in 2023 meant “fewer students than in recent years actually met the entry criteria that most schools and colleges would set for progression into A-level subjects”.
Provisional exam entries data for England shows that A-level entries decreased by 0.4% from 825,355 last summer to 821,875 this summer, despite a 3.8% increase in the size of the 18-year-old population.
Speaking just a few days before students receive their exam results, Dr Saxton added: “It probably means that there’s fractionally higher prior attainment across the cohort. This is me speculating as a former chief regulator.”
Dr Saxton said clearing is no longer perceived as a “bargain basement” for those who are not successful on A-level results day.
Clearing is available to students who do not meet the conditions of their offer on A-level results day, as well as those who did not receive any offers.
But prospective students who have changed their mind about what or where they wish to study, and also those who have applied outside the normal application window, can also use clearing.
On Tuesday, the Ucas chief said: “Clearing maybe was perceived as a bargain basement – it was for the people who had been unsuccessful.
“But that is definitely not how current applicants perceive it.
“For current applicants it’s the mechanism by which they change their mind.”
Nearly 22,700 courses with vacancies for undergraduate students living in England were available on the Ucas clearing site as of Wednesday last week – eight days before results day, a PA news agency analysis showed.
A sample of 129 of the UK’s largest higher education providers showed 17 of the 24 elite Russell Group universities had more than 3,600 courses with vacancies for English residents on clearing.
Dr Saxton added: “It is about students trusting their instincts and going back to their curated playlists, the favourites that they researched, that they’ve probably visited.
“They’re not blindfolded throwing a dart at a dartboard.”
Earlier this week, the Education Secretary said “far too many young” white working-class British students do not get the exam results that they need to allow them to continue on to university.
Bridget Phillipson told PA that the Post-16 White Paper and the Schools White Paper, which are both due in the autumn, will focus on turning around these “thorny and generational challenges”.
Dr Saxton said she would like the Government to look at regional disparities in access to and participation in higher education – such as the “London advantage”.
She said: “More people in all parts of the country should get to benefit from higher education.”
