The government's decision to grant a free vote on the issue of smoking in enclosed public places is widely covered in today's papers, writes Philip Cowley. According to the Telegraph, it is now "certain" to be banned outright, with the same phrase used in the Times. The Independent thinks an all-out ban is "more likely" (although the headline says "likely") and the Guardian goes for "likely".
There is no doubt that the government faced serious difficulties over its proposed partial ban. We here at Revolts published a short briefing paper (pdf, 36k) on the smoking rebellion on November 28, and concluded then by noting that "it might be better politics to grant a free vote".
But we are not yet convinced that the full ban is quite as certain as the Telegraph or the Times think. Not every Labour MP wants an outright ban; there will be plenty who will follow John Reid into the no lobby on this issue. And although the shadow health secretary, Andrew Lansley, will vote for an outright ban, we suspect relatively few other Conservatives will follow him. The Telegraph's leader - Labour MPs want to take another liberty - is a good example of a counter-argument that will be much used once the debate begins properly. Much could depend on how many Conservative MPs turn up - with turnout on free votes often tending to be lower than on whipped votes.
The Guardian also makes free votes the subject of its In praise of... leader, arguing that free votes "allow MPs to show individual responsibility and to rise above their role as lobby fodder - and that can only be good for parliamentary democracy". Maybe. In general, we too like free votes - not least because they provide plenty of nerdy opportunities to analyse the voting patterns. But in this particular case, it might well result in the overturning of part of the manifesto on which the government fought - and won - an election less than a year ago. That manifesto was explicit: pubs and bars not serving food "will be free to choose whether to allow smoking or to be smoke-free" (p 66). If the smoking ban goes through, then, the government will have been forced to break a manifesto commitment by its own backbenchers.
When Labour broke its manifesto commitment on top-up fees during the last parliament, there was an outcry. This time, almost no complaint. How curious.
* Philip Cowley is a reader in parliamentary government at the university of Nottingham
