Seven of the quarter-finalists were decided before the final weekend. If one pool looked destined to go down to the wire it was England’s, but they face Uruguay in Manchester in a dead rubber before the real inquest into their early exit begins in earnest.
I have been there, back in 2007 when I was the head coach of the All Blacks and we lost a quarter-final against France in Cardiff that we were expected to win. It was the first, and only, time a New Zealand team failed to reach the semi-finals. It was, without doubt, my most difficult rugby experience, followed by the Lions tour to Australia in 2001, in 40 years and 140 Tests as a coach.
After a game like that all that’s on your mind is how do we do the best we can in this situation? You have a lot of respect for the young men in the team who had created a record to be proud of leading into the quarter-final against France, similar to the current team. You want to protect them and you want protect your country: coming up with excuses makes things worse.
There was masses of international journalists at the media conference 30 minutes after the end of the match. I said: “The French played better than we thought they could. We didn’t play as well as we should have and we didn’t get the bounce of the ball.” I put it on repeat, facts not excuses. Winning World Cups is often about handling the unexpected, such as injuries to key players: we lost Dan Carter in 2011 and Wales had their captain Sam Warburton sent off in the semi-final against France, missing out on a final against the All Blacks by failing to land one of two late kicks. We did not handle the unexpected in the quarter-final against France and, eight years on, the fixture will be repeated in the same venue if Ireland beat the French on Sunday.
I can empathise with Stuart Lancaster because I know what he is going through; it’s hell, and I hate with a passion going back there, making this difficult to write. But, looking back, the experiences I learned most from were the quarter-final in 2007 and the Lions tour six years earlier. All long-term professional sports coaches go through difficult times. It is a rollercoaster ride and what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. Survival and having the opportunity to learn from those experiences is key. I was fortunate to remain as the head coach of the All Blacks and I hope Stuart enjoys the same fortune when the English union, after getting over its initial shock and hurt, reflects soberly on what happened.
If England are feeling sorry for themselves, spare a thought for Japan who face becoming the first team in the history of the World Cup to win three group matches and fail to reach the quarter-finals. Having beaten South Africa, they richly deserve to go further but they need Samoa, who have not performed so far this tournament, to show up against Scotland in Newcastle on Saturday, the day before Japan face USA. The Scots, playing for second place in the group, will be expected to win but, with all due respect to them, that is not something they are accustomed to.
This is the stage of the tournament when mentality starts to kick in and Sunday’s match between Ireland and France at the Millennium Stadium will be fascinating. The prize for the winners will be Argentina in the quarter-finals rather than New Zealand but I suspect that, given the choice, the French would opt for the All Blacks having beaten them in 2007 and in the 1999 semi-final. Those tournaments were held in the northern hemisphere, while they were beaten by Argentina twice in Paris eight years ago, annihilating them in the third-place play-off, and also lost at home to the Pumas last November.
Argentina enjoy the physicality of the contest against France and the French know that. Many of their players are with clubs in the Top 14 and they know the French psyche. They will believe they can beat France and belief is the first criterion for success. I spent some time with Argentina a couple of years ago and their game has come on considerably since they have been in the Rugby Championship, especially in attack. They are a good side which is getting better.
The other big game at the weekend is at Twickenham where the two teams who combined to put out England, Australia and Wales, battle it out for the title of group winners. Wales may have lost their last 10 matches to the Wallabies, but their only defeat in their last 10 Tests was against Ireland in a warm-up when they were well below strength and, despite being hit by injury, they have shown tenacity, togetherness and spirit. They have certainly handled the unexpected, but Australia look to have their best team since John Eales led them to the 1999 World Cup and their victory over England was certainly one of their most impressive performances since then.
And so, with apologies to Japan, I think the quarter-finals will be a showdown between the Six Nations and the Rugby Championship: South Africa v Wales, New Zealand v France, Australia v Scotland and Ireland v Argentina.
