This weekend, while clubs such as Leicester, Bath, Exeter, Saracens, Wasps and Sale decide who goes through to the play-offs and who goes off on their summer holidays, Stuart Lancaster will be tidying up a list that will probably shape the playing lives of 30-plus players, while giving hope to perhaps a dozen more.
On Wednesday, England’s head coach will announce the 45 players – although I’ve never seen that number written in stone – needed for England’s World Cup camp starting at the back end of June. From that list we should be able to work out who is in with a real chance of making the cut and being part of England’s 31-strong squad for the autumn and who goes to Pennyhill Park to hold the tackle bags and learn the culture and systems associated with Team England.
Hopefully, although it’s doubtful, the list will also end any argument over any role Steffon Armitage and, to a lesser degree, Nick Abendanon might have. I suspect neither will make the 45. If Lancaster wanted either, he would surely have involved them by now, if only to sample the way his England play. Were Armitage to be chosen, it would mean a total change in the character of Lancaster’s back row. And why should the head coach want to undermine his captain?
However, there will be others who see their World Cup chances reduced and those who see them enhanced as Lancaster works out who are the 30-plus most likely and who are the ones who need to shine during what will be a tough camp. It makes for interesting thinking, although the arguments are not as tough as first thought when confronted with a list of close on 80 possibles.
Props Dan Cole, Joe Marler, Davey Wilson, Mako Vunipola (those in situ after the Six Nations) seem close to nailed on, with Kieran Brookes making the fifth – you need three tight-heads for the World Cup. Which leaves Alex Corbisiero, a hero with the Lions in Australia but a guy having difficulty with some referees, with it all to do. He’ll make it to camp, probably along with Henry Thomas, but it’s too soon for Alex Waller, Ross Harrison, Nick Auterac and Jake Cooper-Woolley.
Hookers Dylan Hartley and Tom Youngs have the World Cup slots but the third place is a battle between Jamie George, who has made the most of his chance this season at Saracens, Rob Webber and Luke Cowan-Dickie.
Locks Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Geoff Parling and Dave Attwood are favourites but there are issues about ability to cover other slots, which affect the fortunes of George Kruis and Nick Easter. Maro Itoje is clearly the business but probably not this time around.
Flankers Barring any seismic shift of thinking regarding Armitage, Chris Robshaw, Tom Wood and James Haskell are the World Cup bets with the final slot between Calum Clark and Dave Ewers, one of a few Exeter players to benefit from the Devon side’s rising fortunes. Sam Burgess? Along with Matt Kvesic, the Bath man needs more time learning about Team England.
No8 Billy Vunipola and, assuming the injury rehabilitation continues to go well, Ben Morgan. But Easter’s ability to play second or back row will put him in a play-off spot with Kruis, Clark and possibly even Attwood for who makes the final cut. Josh Beaumont is definitely someone for the future.
Scrum-half Ben Youngs and Richard Wigglesworth and probably Danny Care go, although it’s terribly tough on Joe Simpson. The Wasps No9 is just the kind of game-changer England will need on a World Cup bench but last weekend’s ligament injury makes things pretty tight for September.
Fly-half George Ford and Owen Farrell go and I can see Henry Slade being the third guy England need who can play at 10. With Lancaster showing less than total faith in Danny Cipriani during the Six Nations, it is the Exeter man’s defence, as well as his ability to cover 15, 13, 12 and 10, which should attract the selectors. Stephen Myler makes camp at best.
Wings Jack Nowell, Anthony Watson and Jonny May are the wings in possession and increasingly there is a feeling that Chris Ashton has reclaimed enough ground to be in with a chance of proving himself at camp.
Full-back If Mike Brown gets over his concussion, then he and Alex Goode are in place and Chris Pennell will probably make the 45, but not Abendanon. It’s not just that he is playing abroad; lack of a kicking game makes life difficult at Test level.
Centres The big if, of course, is Manu Tuilagi, who hasn’t played since damaging himself against Ulster in October. A series of target dates for a comeback have come and gone and any hopes of rugby this season, even if Leicester do make the play-offs, are doubtful. However, such is Lancaster’s faith in his wrecking ball that I can see even a less-than-fully-fit Tuilagi making the World Cup, with Luther Burrell and Jonathan Joseph as the men in place and Billy Twelvetrees needing a good camp to have a chance of making the final 31.
