Dundalk may have lost all five of their Europa League games so far, but don’t underestimate how much they’ll have benefitted from them.
Shamrock Rovers haven’t had a proper test since they played AC Milan whereas Dundalk held their own against Molde and Rapid Vienna for long spells.
They were superb in the FAI Cup quarter-final away to Bohs and I’d be looking past their Europa League results.
Yes, they were extremely poor defending crosses into the box against Molde on Thursday and it’s been a recurring problem.
But set-pieces aside, Rovers are not a team that peppers the opposition with crosses and I don’t think that’ll be a factor tomorrow.
I’ve often made the mistake of tipping the league winners in a cup final just because they’re champions.
But Dundalk have found form at the right time having failed to fire for three-quarters of the season.
Their general play against Bohs was miles ahead of where they’ve been and David McMillan has given them an injection.
With Pat Hoban out for the season, McMillan is getting his chance and he’s like a new player for Dundalk. They look more threatening and they move the ball quicker.
Rovers have been the benchmark this year but lately I don’t think they’re hitting their levels.
Their semi-final win over Sligo Rovers was a solid, professional performance but they were in second or third gear.
It was a walk in the park and they haven’t been tested since AC Milan. Unlike Dundalk, they’ve a lack of quality games under their belt where they know they’ve been tested.
That brings the best out of teams, but it’s not their fault. It’s a reflection on the opposition they face in the league.
I also think they’ll miss Gary O’Neill. Scorer of the winning penalty in last year’s final, he’s out with a quad injury.
O’Neill is their protective shield in midfield. In the semi-final, Sligo only had a small spell where they were on top but they got through all too easily.
Rovers missed O’Neill and while it’s fantastic to see Greg Bolger back after five months out with a broken leg, he lacks the minutes to start in that position.
Chris Shields plays the same role for Dundalk and having missed last year’s final through suspension, he’s raring to go.
That’s a massive feather in Dundalk’s cap and all things considered, I’m marginally siding with the Lilywhites.
I wouldn’t have said that three weeks ago, but the Bohs game has changed everything and they have their mojo back.
Dundalk never turned up in last year’s final and I wonder if that still grates with them?
They’ve taken serious flak this year and that’s an inner grievance that’s often a better source of motivation than, say, chasing a first double in 33 years like Rovers.
