A powerful El Nino could push the global average temperature above 2 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial levels for at least one month in early 2027, a level never recorded before, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing projections by the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.
The projections estimate a 35%-40% probability that a single month in early 2027 will breach the 2C threshold, with the odds rising sharply in recent weeks as meteorologists upgraded forecasts for the current El Niño, which is expected to be among the strongest on record.
Ben Kirtman, dean of the Rosenstiel School, told Bloomberg the probability was "really large" and reflected the combined impact of an exceptionally strong El Niño and the underlying trend of global warming.
The projection shows the average forecast steadily rising to just below the 2C mark by early 2027, while several individual model forecasts cross the threshold. Ben Kirtman, dean of the Rosenstiel School, told Bloomberg that the probability of breaching 2C for a single month is "really large" and much higher than previously expected.
Researchers also said the recent surge in temperatures may be partly linked to faster-than-expected reductions in aerosol pollution, which had previously masked some of the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
The projections come as many parts of the world are already experiencing extreme weather.
Europe has faced record-breaking heat and severe wildfires, while the strengthening El Nino is expected to worsen drought conditions and disrupt food production in several regions.
The impact is already being felt in India. The country recorded its fifth-driest June since 1901, according to India Meteorological Department data, as a strong El Nino pattern brought hotter and drier conditions.
The prolonged heat also boosted demand for cooling, putting additional pressure on electricity consumption. El Nino, caused by the warming of surface waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, typically leads to hotter and drier weather across South and Southeast Asia.
