Blockbuster names like OpenAI and Anthropic may still dominate the venture secondary market, while SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) has until recently been another major source of investor demand. But as those companies move closer to the public markets, a new group of private startups is emerging as the next potential drivers of secondary-market activity.
According to a PitchBook report, the U.S. venture secondary market reached an estimated $121.7 billion on a trailing 12-month basis through the second quarter of 2026. While AI giants have driven much of that activity, PitchBook says investors are already positioning for the next wave of liquidity by accumulating shares in a handful of mature private companies with increasingly realistic IPO prospects.
Ten startups are best positioned to dominate venture secondary trading once the industry’s biggest names leave the private market, the firm argues. Also, investor focus isn’t set on generative AI alone.
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Leading the group is Stripe, which carries an estimated $171 billion valuation and a 92% probability of going public within three years, according to PitchBook. The payments giant has remained one of the most actively traded private companies, giving secondary investors a rare opportunity to gain exposure to a fintech leader that has stayed private for more than a decade.
Databricks follows closely behind. Despite a $146.8 billion valuation, PitchBook gives the data and AI infrastructure company a lower near-term IPO probability of 23% within three years and a 69% chance of a public listing within five years. This keeps the cloud-based data intelligence platform among the most closely watched private market names.
Defense, Consumer Tech And Emerging Financial Platforms
Anduril Industries, valued at $64.5 billion, has become one of the largest private defense technology companies as investor interest grows around autonomous systems and national security spending. Meanwhile, Shield AI, valued at $13.9 billion, represents a smaller but fast-growing defense AI player that PitchBook expects could have an 80% chance of going public within five years.
The secondary market is also preserving investor appetite for established consumer technology platforms. Epic Games, valued at $24.9 billion, and Discord, valued at $14.7 billion, continue to attract interest from investors seeking exposure to scaled software companies with large user bases and long private-market histories.
AI remains the dominant theme across the group, extending beyond the largest infrastructure providers. Perplexity AI, valued at $24.8 billion, has emerged as one of the most closely watched AI search companies, while Crusoe, valued at $12.7 billion, reflects investor demand for infrastructure supporting the next phase of AI development.
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Kraken, valued at $22.2 billion, stands out as one of the strongest potential IPO candidates. PitchBook assigns the cryptocurrency exchange a 91% chance of going public within three years.
Polymarket, valued at $10.7 billion, rounds out the group, signaling investor willingness to back newer financial platforms built around prediction markets and alternative forms of trading.
PitchBook says these companies share several characteristics that make them attractive secondary investments. The most actively traded startups tend to be more than six years old, valued above $20 billion and operating in sectors with abundant investor demand, particularly AI.
A Concentrated Market
On the Hiive secondary marketplace, the 20 most-traded startups drove 86% of second-quarter trading value, with the top five accounting for over half.
This concentration should ease following expected IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic, alongside SpaceX’s recent public transition—listings that will return capital to venture investors and set new public benchmarks for AI and space sectors.
While secondary volumes are expected to drop significantly as lockup expirations reduce pre-IPO buying urgency, PitchBook views this as a standard market cycle rather than fading demand. Private secondaries remain a permanent VC pillar, offering liquidity and rare private-market access. As current AI giants go public, secondary trading will naturally pivot toward the next cohort of mature startups.
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