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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Entertainment

Strictly Come Dancing: can we predict who'll get the boot?

Strictly Come Dancing social media 13 October
Strictly Come Dancing: Reform's analysis shows how much online ‘buzz’ each contestant generated this past week (click for larger image). Illustration: Reform

Digital consultancy Reform has created an algorithm using online search and social media data to determine how much online buzz each Strictly Come Dancing competitor is generating. Each week Reform will be predicting which celebrity is going home, and which three will make the final. Last year they managed to predict the winner. Can they get it right this time?

This week's predictions

Finalists: Alex Jones, Holly Valance, Jason Donovan
Who's going home: Nancy Dell'Olio

Last week we predicted an early exit for Nancy Dell'Olio, but despite showing all the co-ordination of Bambi on ice and forgetting half her routine, she clung on for another week. Our early algorithm clearly didn't factor in the "John Sergeant effect" – the British public cleaving to the comic or the underdog, both of which Nancy embodied last weekend.

That said, there's only so long that can last, and our instincts and data still point to her departure. The data shows some buzz for her this week, but the sentiment around it is the key here ... it doesn't look good.

Harry Judd and Russell Grant saw little buzz during the live shows last weekend, spelling danger for them later on, but they should see both sail through this week. The outlook is more worrying for last week's bottom two-er Audley Harrison, who saw the least interest during the live shows. Announcing that he is returning to boxing artificially inflated his online buzz this week, and he is surely a prime candidate for exit this weekend.

As for the winners, Alex Jones and Holly Valance are still leading the field, but watch out for Jason Donovan who is creeping up on them.

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